Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They banned kuchera ? Lol

No but everyone was posting it.

[Jt17]

Posting this was worse than posting Kuchera.


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[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Posting this was worse than posting Kuchera.


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At the risk of getting yelled at....

[NJwx85]

Final Call

Central Park 5-8”

LGA 3-6”

JFK 3-6”

HPN 6-9”

EWR 5-8”

MMU 3-6”

SWF 6-10”

ISP 6-8”

 

[SnoSki14]

I still like a general 4-8 for most. Snow will probably come in fast and quick and then taper to ZR. The further north you are the closer you'll get to 7-8" and local spots further north will exceed that obviously 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Barely

Enjoy the snow

He'll be lucky to see an inch

[North and West]

I wonder if Mt. Holly reads this forum - they changed their advisory overnight to a Winter Storm  Warning for North Central NJ

I hope - for if nothing else, the status of their mental wellbeing - they steer far away from it.


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[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

caving to what ? I mean GFS hasn't wavered since day 4

It has, a lot. But you might not have noticed it when focusing on Westchester Co.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I hope - for if nothing else, the status of their mental wellbeing - they steer far away from it.


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We do have a few posters here that are NWS mets.

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wanted to use Kutchera but therebis a ban.

IMO 10 to 1 is useless cause it counts sleet as snow so the snow depth is rhe next best.

Kuchera doesn't count sleet either, at least not on Pivotal.  Kuchera is a terrible algorithm only based on max column temp, not taking into account crystal formation, which governs snow bulk density/ratio on the ground, as long as melting doesn't occur while falling, so Kuchera helps when the column is over 32F somewhere and can give some hint at ratios where the column is cold, but much of that depends on the crystal habit being formed in the DGZ, which is dependent on lift and supersaturation, none of which has anything to do with Kuchera.  10:1 is best IMO because it also gives an easy estimate of QPF (10:1, duh), whereas one has no idea how much QPF went into the Kuchera calculation. 

The sleet question is separate.  Some services show sleet separately but most don't.  We have the Pivotal approach of only showing snow, so sleet is missed completely, which is bad, since sleet is as impactful as snow (same mass) on road conditions and removal/shoveling (but it's not as pretty), while we also have the TT approach which counts sleet as 10:1 snow, so one at least gets an impact assessment, but it's also very misleading on the snow/sleet depth and many like to know the depth too.  

I type something like this every storm.  I should just save it somewhere and copy/paste, lol.  

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

It has, a lot. But you might not have noticed it when focusing on Westchester Co.

it wobbled a little but i disagree gfs has handled this storm the best so far but we'll see reality by tomorrow

[MJO812]

Wow I am Keyfood now and its packed.

[winterwarlock]

is this really turning into a 8-9 hour event...basically 6-3am

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

is this really turning into a 8-9 hour event...basically 6-3am

This was never more than a 10 hour event at best. 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

is this really turning into a 8-9 hour event...basically 6-3am

Yes it looks to be a really quick fast powerful thump of snow! I think Kutchera for areas north of the city are pretty spot on... maybe not the 12" but 10" 20 miles north of the city is doable. city should be fine with 3-6" south

[Superstorm]

Wow I am Keyfood now and its packed.

Grocery stores are going to be at a peak right now.

1. Most people shop on Friday.
2. It’s right after Christmas so everybody’s stocking up.
3. And an impending winter storm

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

is this really turning into a 8-9 hour event...basically 6-3am

It won't even be that, it'll be 4 hours from like 7-11pm.  I think after that its just snizzle/pellets/frz drizzle, even in SW CT and the LHV where they may get 7-10 inches that'll happen.  Its rare to see big overrunning type events be snow all the way through, even in areas which get hit hard

[NJwx85]

The majority of the snow will fall in a 2-4 hour window. That’s always been the case. Light snow should persist in some areas until around sunrise if the inverted trough sets up.

[eduggs]

15z HRRR continues to show the best snows north of NJ-NY border and it keeps gradually pushing the low/mid-level lows further northeast before redeveloping south. More and more mix and dry slot into the BGM area... I really hope it's wrong... but that's why we have the hourly guidance.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It won't even be that, it'll be 4 hours from like 7-11pm.  I think after that its just snizzle/pellets/frz drizzle, even in SW CT and the LHV where they may get 7-10 inches that'll happen.  Its rare to see big overrunning type events be snow all the way through, even in areas which get hit hard

These types of events are more typical of Chicago and the plains than us. That’s why they are so much more prone to ice storms than we are. PA might get significant ice.

[NJwx85]

Another issue is that the airmass is really dry. We’re going to need to see some good dynamics to overcome it.

[jm1220]

Just now, eduggs said:

15z HRRR continues to show the best snows north of NJ-NY border and it keeps gradually pushing the low/mid-level lows further northeast before redeveloping south. More and more mix and dry slot into the BGM area... I really hope it's wrong... but that's why we have the hourly guidance.

If you were to pick a best place to be for this storm it’s probably the eastern Catskills to Albany then SE from there through most of CT. If you get 10” anywhere that’s where it’d probably be. Huge start to the season for S NY to the Capital district. I’m honestly more concerned about the big overrunning going to my north and getting porked on QPF waiting in subsidence vs a period of sleet that would cut my totals down but we’ll see. Odds are still for a significant event here east of the city for most of LI. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He'll be lucky to see an inch

must....resist....Michael....Scott....joke.....

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Grocery stores are going to be at a peak right now.

1. Most people shop on Friday.
2. It’s right after Christmas so everybody’s stocking up.
3. And an impending winter storm

why though...literally its short duration storm and everyone will be back at the grocery store either late morning for some or late afternoon for others tomorrow

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)

I’m excited for this storm, it seems like a couple hours of pure heavy snow which can be rare to get

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Another issue is that the airmass is really dry. We’re going to need to see some good dynamics to overcome it.

Which is why I'm surprised how far north the best snows are. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It's gonna melt anyway within a few days with the big warmth coming on Monday along with some rain. These storms usually come in earlier than expected and end quicker than expected as well. First flakes probably around 5-6, moderate snow is done by 1 am, and then light sleet for rest of night most likely 

It may not be all that warm monday outside of a couple of hours.   A half inch of rain even at 40 degrees on a 6 inch snowpack wont kill it all

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

why though...literally its short duration storm and everyone will be back at the grocery store either late morning for some or late afternoon for others tomorrow

I've never understood it-how long are you snowed in at your house?  Maybe half a day tops?    

[NJwx85]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Which is why I'm surprised how far north the best snows are. 

Because the cold is strong and really far South.  You can see the CAD signature well looking at the isobars. We needed it or this would have been rain to Albany. It’s a give and take. Shortwave was well timed too.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Another issue is that the airmass is really dry. We’re going to need to see some good dynamics to overcome it.

there's going to be some disappointed folks on the far NE sections of the QPF forecasts