Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Jersey Andrew]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

15 years ago today we were tracking a monster storm. Today we are tracking its little brother for the same date lol

Boxing Day Blizzard was an amazing storm to track. I was on NJ Transit train with my laptop when midday GFS came out and showed NYC snowstorm after other models were out to sea. Everyone on weather boards was in disbelief until Euro Dr. No said YES. We missed out on Feb. 6,2010 when my parents in NOVA were socked with 30 inches of snow. As much as we complain, NYC has seen some monster storms in last 20 years.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

too bad-if it were 2 days earlier....

take photos with the decorations up, if you celebrate; no one will ever know and you will be surprised at how many people who don't follow weather will remember if it snowed on christmas or not, by next year....

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Boxing Day Blizzard was an amazing storm to track. I was on NJ Transit train with my laptop when midday GFS came out and showed NYC snowstorm after other models were out to sea. Everyone on weather boards was in disbelief until Euro Dr. No said YES. We missed out on Feb. 6,2010 when my parents in NOVA were socked with 30 inches of snow. As much as we complain, NYC has seen some monster storms in last 20 years.

and growing up in the 70s i can tell you, i can remember only two storms in that whole era that even came close....feb 78 and feb 83. and they were not on the same level, although removal efforts were even worse back then....special mention of the bizarre april 82 storm is always obligatory as well....

[TriPol]

28 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

If this all plays out as expected? When was the last time Central Park recorded 10" of snow in December? And how did that winters final totals end up?

This isn't going to go above 6" in Central Park. It may in every other area of NYC, but in Central Park, I doubt this goes above 5 inches. We could have a raging blizzard, it won't go above 6 inches in Central Park.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This isn't going to go above 6" in Central Park. It may in every other area of NYC, but in Central Park, I doubt this goes above 5 inches. We could have a raging blizzard, it won't go above 6 inches in Central Park.

not with the measuring they do lmao

[WestBabylonWeather]

Winter storm watch feels good 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

Judging by Santa’s position it’s obvious what you’re getting in your stocking. As always ….

 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

15 years ago today we were tracking a monster storm. Today we are tracking its little brother for the same date lol

Fun read from 15 years ago:

897 
FXUS61 KOKX 240533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS EVOLUTION OF COASTAL STORM AND HOW 
IT IMPACTS LOCAL CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MUCH DEPENDS ON PHASING OF 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THESE UPPER 
FEATURES NOW ENTERING DENSE OBSERVATION NETWORK...SO EACH SUBSEQUENT 
MODEL RUN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS. 
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS 12Z 
RUN...ALONG WITH FASTER MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PER 
EC/GFS/NAM.

INITIALLY THE NAM/WRF REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH SOUTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 
MAIN TROUGH DIGS. LATEST NAM/WRF AND GFS TRACK THIS LOW JUST 
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...WITH MINIMAL QPF ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST 
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED EAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AS WELL. 
AS MENTIONED...SFC LOW MUCH FASTER TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF 
CLIPS CWA...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL FORECASTING A FULL 
FLEDGED SNOWSTORM. WILL CONTINUE TO LAYER POPS FROM HIGHEST SE...TO 
LOWEST NW ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR 
TIMING...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE WHEN ANY ACCUMULATING 
SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...IF IT DOES. STORM MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH AND 
EAST ON MONDAY. LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH 
AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MONDAY.

TEMPS COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

906 
FXUS61 KOKX 241141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
641 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF NOT TOO DISSIMILAR...AND GIVEN RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SEEN
WITH THE COASTAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A BLEND OF THE TWO
SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW.

A CLOSED LOW AT 500 HPA DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY...THEN
TO NEAR CAPE COD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS MOVING AN
ALREADY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY MORNING...TO NEAR CAPE COD BY MONDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW
WORKS ON CUTTING OFF AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
THIS CUTOFF LOW THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTO TUESDAY...WITH A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE DRY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT FOR POSSIBLY A SNOW SHOWER OVER THE FAR NW LATE
SAT NIGHT AS THE NE EXTENSION OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW SETS UP
OVER EASTERN UPSTATE NY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW TOWARDS MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL MOVE IN FROM S TO N SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE LONG ISLAND SOUND ON S
AND NYC ON EAST.

TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST IS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...FOR NOW HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA (LIKELY FAR EAST)...BUT EVEN THE GFS
BARELY HAS MEASURABLE QPF INTO ORANGE COUNTY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND USED...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A HIGH
END CHANCE TO A LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE SNOW FALL
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WARNING LEVEL SNOWS OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND - NOT SAYING
WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ARE NOT POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...JUST THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THEM IS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IN ORDER
TO GET WARNING LEVEL SNOWS WEST OF THE HUDSON...IT WOULD TAKE A
SHIFT IN TRACK ABOUT 100 MILES TO THE WEST...THIS IN UNLIKELY BUT
STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT ALSO POSSIBLE (AND
MORE LIKELY THAN A 100 MILE WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK) THAT THE
STORM COULD TRACK FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST...BRINGING AT MOST
ADVISORY SNOWS TO EASTERN AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH
THIS STORM. GFS BOUNDARY WINDS ARE 35 KT OR GREATER OVER CT/LONG
ISLAND (WITH 50-60 KT VALUES OVER THE TWIN FORKS/SE CT) LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WHILE ECMWF 925 HPA WINDS AROUND 45
KT IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. BASED ON THIS...WOULD THINK THAT AT
LEAST GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
CT/LONG ISLAND...AND MAYBE A TAD FURTHER WEST AS WELL. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT IF THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE GFS BARES OUT
(ASSUMING THAT THE STRENGTH FORECAST OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS
CORRECT - THEY ARE WITHIN 1 HPA OF EACH OTHER MOST OF THE
TIME)...THEN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER THE TWIN
FORKS/SE CT...AND MAYBE A TAD FURTHER W.

TOO EARLY...PLUS NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WATCH...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO FROM THIS STORM...
STRESSING INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

935 
FXUS61 KOKX 250033
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS WITH THE STORM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH PHASING DETAILS OF
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AS THEY COMBINE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW BY SUNDAY...WITH A FULL SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES RANGING FROM
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. THE 12Z GFS...WHILE
LOOKING MOST OMINOUS...WAS NOT FULLY ACCEPTED MAINLY DUE TO
INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHOSE
INTERACTION WILL IN TURN GREATLY INFLUENCE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE 12Z ECMWF INITIALIZED THESE FEATURES A LITTLE
BETTER BUT STILL NOT PERFECTLY...AND ITS SFC LOW TRACK SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE RIDING A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...STILL LOOKS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FORCING LOCATED TO THE WEST.

AS A RESULT...THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AND COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS EITHER STRAIGHT CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR A
BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LOW TRACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO DELIVER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS TO SOUTHEAST CT AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...LESSER AMOUNTS WESTWARD TO SW CT AND NYC
METRO...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WITH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS STILL NONZERO BUT IS LOW...ONLY
30-40 PERCENT FOR EASTERNMOST CT/LONG ISLAND...AND 10-20 PERCENT
FARTHER WEST. FORECAST DETAILS MAY STILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN THE INTERACTION OF
THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO FORM THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...SO 
STAY TUNED. 

397 
FXUS61 KOKX 250528
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1228 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS WITH THE STORM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH PHASING DETAILS OF
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AS THEY COMBINE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW BY SUNDAY...WITH A FULL SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES RANGING FROM
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. THE 12Z GFS...WHILE
LOOKING MOST OMINOUS...WAS NOT FULLY ACCEPTED MAINLY DUE TO
INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHOSE
INTERACTION WILL IN TURN GREATLY INFLUENCE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE 12Z ECMWF INITIALIZED THESE FEATURES A LITTLE
BETTER BUT STILL NOT PERFECTLY...AND ITS SFC LOW TRACK SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE RIDING A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...STILL LOOKS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FORCING LOCATED TO THE WEST.

AS A RESULT...THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AND COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS EITHER STRAIGHT CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR A
BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LOW TRACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO DELIVER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS TO SOUTHEAST CT AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...LESSER AMOUNTS WESTWARD TO SW CT AND NYC
METRO...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WITH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS STILL NONZERO BUT IS LOW...ONLY
30-40 PERCENT FOR EASTERNMOST CT/LONG ISLAND...AND 10-20 PERCENT
FARTHER WEST. FORECAST DETAILS MAY STILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN THE INTERACTION OF
THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO FORM THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...SO 
STAY TUNED. 

536 
FXUS61 KOKX 251143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

BY SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSES OFF. DECREASING WAVELENGTH BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM WILL FAVOR CONTINUING OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. SNOW
COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME COINCIDING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE OMEGA FIELD AND RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE. GENERALLY GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A LARGE CHANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z RUNS FROM MORE OFFSHORE
TO CLOSER TO COAST. THE NAM...GEM...AND UKMET ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SREF IN BETWEEN AND CLOSE TO THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE SREF HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROBABILITY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AS WELL. THE TRACK STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY AS
GFS O6Z RUN TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS COULD HAVE
RESULTING CHANGES TO QPF AMOUNTS AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH THE
FORECAST IF THIS TREND HOLDS WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.

THEREFORE...POPS INCREASED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WITH A BLEND OF HPC/SREF/NAM QPF AS WELL
AS ACCOUNTING FOR AROUND 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE GENERALLY 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST OR IF MESOSCALE ENHANCED BANDING SETS UP.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN A NW TO SE GRADIENT WITH HIGHER
TOTALS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THINK THAT
PLACES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MORE OF A HEAVY WET SNOW. 
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY
WITH ECMWF TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST. STEEP GRADIENT IN
PRESSURE AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS DUE TO BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO
RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THESE WINDS TOWARDS THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS.

816 
FXUS61 KOKX 251834 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

BY SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSES OFF. DECREASING WAVELENGTH BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM WILL FAVOR CONTINUING OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. SNOW
COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME COINCIDING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE OMEGA FIELD AND RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE. GENERALLY GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A LARGE CHANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z RUNS FROM MORE OFFSHORE
TO CLOSER TO COAST. THE NAM...GEM...AND UKMET ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SREF IN BETWEEN AND CLOSE TO THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE SREF HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROBABILITY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AS WELL. THE TRACK STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY AS
GFS O6Z RUN TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS COULD HAVE
RESULTING CHANGES TO QPF AMOUNTS AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH THE
FORECAST IF THIS TREND HOLDS WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.

THEREFORE...POPS INCREASED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WITH A BLEND OF HPC/SREF/NAM QPF AS WELL
AS ACCOUNTING FOR AROUND 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE GENERALLY 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST OR IF MESOSCALE ENHANCED BANDING SETS UP.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN A NW TO SE GRADIENT WITH HIGHER
TOTALS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THINK THAT
PLACES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MORE OF A HEAVY WET SNOW.
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY
WITH ECMWF TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST. STEEP GRADIENT IN
PRESSURE AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS DUE TO BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO
RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THESE WINDS TOWARDS THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN/COASTAL SECTIONS. 

410 
FXUS61 KOKX 252021
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
321 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE WILL BE ISSUING BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...FOR THE
INTENSE STORM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTATION IS FOR HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 8-12
INCHES NW OF NYC AND 12-16 INCHES MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGHER
LOCAL AMOUNTS WHERE BEST MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP. STILL COULD BE
SOME MIXING ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST WELL OVER 35 MPH OVER MOST OF THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA...APPROACHING 50-55 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM...WITH CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND VERY POOR VSBY. MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW
BY ABOUT 4 PM. 

965 
FXUS61 KOKX 252153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW
CT...FOR THE INTENSE STORM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE WEAK LOW NOW S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
970 MB AS IT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING... THEN
TURNS NE TO A POSITION INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. EXPECTATION IS
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SUNDAY...BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE H5 CLOSED LOW HUGGING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PRECEDED BY INTENSE CPVA AND STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 12-16
INCHES...WITH 8-12 INCHES FARTHER NORTH/WEST. HIGHER LOCAL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS SET UP...STILL AN
UNKNOWN AS FCST MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...AND TEND TO BE TOO FAR
SOUTH/EAST...SO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

RAPID PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG ISALLOBARIC N
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS ALL SNOW...THOUGH THE FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY FAR SE CT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN/SLEET AS THE SFC LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH...TOO LITTLE TOO LATE TO KEEP THOSE AREAS FROM RECEIVING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. 

THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GUST TO 40-55 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY INVOF NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO THE COAST...WITH WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND
VERY POOR VSBY. NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON GUST FREQUENCY OVER 35
MPH OR DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW FARTHER INLAND...WHICH IS WHY
BLIZZARD WARNINGS DO NOT COVER THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. 
MESOSCALE TRENDS AS THE STORM GETS UNDER WAY MAY DICTATE
OTHERWISE...SO STAY TUNED. 

876 
FXUS61 KOKX 261915
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
215 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON
EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO
EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE
BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG
ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF
15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA
SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT
WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1
GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH
ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND
SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12
INCHES THERE.

FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION...EXACTLY WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY BE COMING MORE INTO FOCUS. THE 12Z
NAM SHOWED ITS STRONGEST H7-8 LAYER FRONTOGENESIS DISPLACED ABOUT
30 MILES NW OF THE STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS OFF DELMARVA ATTM...NO
SURPRISE THERE AS THIS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH INTENSE COASTAL STORMS.
TAKING THE NAM OTHERWISE AS A PERFECT PROG AND FOLLOWING EVOLUTION
OF ITS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CT INTO WESTERN SUFFOLK AND NASSAU
COUNTIES ON LONG ISLAND..POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST CT AND NYC IF YOU LOOK AT H7 FRONTOGENESIS ONLY. 
PER ABOVE HAVE INCREASED MAX TOTALS...AS THAT BANDING LOOKS TO
SET UP THERE TOWARD EVENING AND REMAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF 
THE NIGHT. 

THE DEEP LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND FIELD.
BL WINDS IN THE GFS STILL CLOSE TO 60 KT OVER LONG ISLAND. NAM
WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER AT THE COAST BUT STRONGER INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-60 MPH AND EXTENDED
BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO ENTIRE CWA. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN LI.

491 
FXUS61 KOKX 262112
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
20Z MESOSCALE UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS HEAVY SNOW VIA INTENSE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING TAKING PLACE FROM NYC METRO NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CT...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY BANDS POISED TO MOVE UP INTO
NYC METRO AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND AFTER DARK AND REMAIN FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF TONIGHT...SO WILL HOLD WITH EARLIER IDEA OF 15-20
INCHES AND LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 FT. RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE TOPPED BY A NARROW LAYER OF
NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV AND/OR PURE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

FARTHER EAST...DRY PUNCH ON SAT WV IMAGERY HAS CAUSED SNOW BANDS
TO BECOME LESS INTENSE/ORGANIZED...AND AS A RESULT WILL BE CUTTING
BACK ON TOTALS THERE...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT/MODERATE
SNOW THERE UNTIL BANDING TO THE WEST PIVOTS IN LATER TONIGHT...BUT
STILL TOTALS 10-15 INCHES...AND 6-8 INCHES ON THE EASTERNMOST SOUTH
FORK WHERE RAIN COULD STILL MIX IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. SNOW ALSO
NOT QUITE AS HEAVY YET IN ORANGE COUNTY SO BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON
TOTALS THERE...WITH 10-15 INCHES. OTHER AREAS NOT MENTIONED ABOVE
STILL ON TRACK FOR 12-18 INCHES. 

AS NOTED EARLIER...WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1 GIVEN
INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH
ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND
SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. 

THE DEEP LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
FIELD...WITH GUSTS 45-60 MPH EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. 

THE STORM WINDS DOWN MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING. 
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS IT WILL BE OVER BY MID TO 
LATE MORNING.

377 
FXUS61 KOKX 270710
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 AM EST MON DEC 27 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A 976 MB LOW ABOUT 150 NM SE OF LONG ISLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BANDS OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR CONTINUE TO
WORK NW FROM THE OCEAN...MERGING INTO A FAIRLY BROAD AND NEARLY
STATIONARY SNOW BAND ACROSS SW CONN/NYC/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND WESTERN LI. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO
4 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS BAND. THE BAND IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL NE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 5
HOURS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN 15-20 INCHES AND LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 2 FT WILL FALL ACROSS THIS REGION. ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH BANDING. 

COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT AND BLOCK
ISLAND...WITH MAINLY SNOW NOW EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT...JUST SOME SLEET
MIXING IN ACROSS TWIN FORKS. 10 TO 16 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THIS
STATIONARY BAND ACROSS EASTERN LI AND CT.

THE DEEP LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT. 

ZERO VISIBILITY EXPECTED IN HEAVIEST BANDS AND STRONG WINDS...WITH
TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY OVERNIGHT.

HEAVIEST SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO PULL NE BETWEEN 04Z TO 08Z FROM
SW TO NE AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACK SE OF NANTUCKET.

THE STORM WINDS DOWN MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING. 
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS IT WILL BE OVER BY MID TO 
LATE MORNING.

034 
FXUS61 KOKX 271211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 AM EST MON DEC 27 2010

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 976 MB LOW...ABOUT 50 NM ESE OF LONG ISLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. 

IN ITS WAKE...MULTIPLE DEFORMATION BANDS GOING STRONG ACROSS THE 
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS INTERACTS 
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR AND ACCOMPANYING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN
THESE BANDS. EXPECT THIS BANDING ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM THE NORTH
CEASES. SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF BANDING WILL LIKELY BE
REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI.

WITH MOST PERSISTENT BANDING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVER THE LAST 18 HRS...FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 18 TO 24
INCHES...AND LOCALLY UP TO 30 INCHES...ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO
BEING REALIZED IN A N/S CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 15-20 INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO...SW CT...AND
WESTERN LI. WIDER RANGE OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CONN...DUE TO REGION BEING IMPACTED BY MORE INTERMITTENT FEEDER
BANDING. SEE NYCPNSOKX FOR LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE STORM.

A TIGHT GRADIENT IN WAKE OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. 50-55 KT WINDS AT TOP OF
MIXED LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
ACROSS CITY/COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED TODAY. SEE NYCPNSOKX FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS
FROM THE STORM.

MESOSCALE BANDING IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM W TO E LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM W TO E. BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK TO MIDDAY TO
COINCIDE WITH EXPECTED END OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES.

WITH NEWLY FALLEN SNOW AND AFTERNOON CAA...TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE TODAY...10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE. WINDCHILLS AROUND 0 THIS MORNING...ONLY RISING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.

528 
FXUS61 KOKX 271744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE INTENSE STORM IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES E OF CAPE
COD...LOOKING VERY MUCH LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH SPIRAL
BANDING VERY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST OF NYC...VIS SATELLITE NOW ALSO SHOWING WHERE HEAVIEST
SNOWS FELL OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NJ...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER 30 INCHES. DROPPED BLIZZARD WARNING EARLIER...BUT WITH COMBO
OF STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 KT...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND POSSIBLY COVERING PREVIOUSLY PLOWED ROADS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A SINGLE WINTER WX ADVISORY COVERING THESE HAZARDS RATHER
THAN ISSUE SEPARATE PRODUCTS...MAKING FOR A SMOOTHER TRANSITION
FROM THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND HOPEFULLY PROVIDING A MORE
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. 

SEE OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. 

WITH NEWLY FALLEN SNOW AND AFTERNOON CAA...TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN THE 20S TODAY...10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AFTERNOON WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. 

699 
NOUS41 KOKX 272036
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-280801-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 29 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS 
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR 
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   WILTON                18.0   830 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   GREENWICH             17.0   700 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   STRATFORD             16.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   NORWALK               16.0   910 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   WESTPORT              14.8   145 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   DANBURY               14.1   800 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   BRIDGEPORT            12.0   100 PM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER          
           
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   WESTBROOK              9.5  1020 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   EAST HADDAM            6.5  1200 PM 12/27  PUBLIC                  

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   MERIDEN                8.8  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   GALES FERRY            7.5   913 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 NNE NEWENT           7.5  1151 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NORWICH                6.0   800 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   LEDYARD CENTER         5.0   730 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                 

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   LYNDHURST             29.0   230 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   LODI                  27.1   700 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   RUTHERFORD            23.0   800 AM 12/27  NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS     
   OAKLAND               22.0   730 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   GARFIELD              21.8   331 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BERGENFIELD           20.4   200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   GLEN ROCK             18.0  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                         
   RIDGEWOOD             17.5   622 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PARAMUS               17.0   800 AM 12/27  NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS                    
   RIVERVALE             14.0   930 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                      

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   BELLEVILLE            24.8  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   NEWARK AIRPORT        24.2   700 AM 12/27  ASOS                    
   WEST ORANGE           24.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   BLOOMFIELD            24.0   945 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   VERONA                23.0   500 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   MILLBURN              22.5   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   CEDAR GROVE           21.1   700 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  

...HUDSON COUNTY...
   JERSEY CITY           26.0   955 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SECAUCUS              25.0   800 AM 12/27                          
   HARRISON              25.0   800 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   KEARNY                20.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   HOBOKEN               19.9   800 AM 12/27                          

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   CLIFTON               25.5   215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HASKELL               24.5   200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WEST MILFORD          22.0   415 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   RINGWOOD              22.0   810 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   WAYNE                 22.0   915 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                

...UNION COUNTY...
   RAHWAY                32.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   ELIZABETH             31.8   700 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ROSELLE               28.7   710 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   CLARK                 27.0   745 AM 12/27                          
   UNION                 27.0   745 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FANWOOD               26.0   100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   GARWOOD               25.0   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   ROSELLE PARK          21.0  1230 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   PLAINFIELD            18.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
   SOUNDVIEW PARK HOMES  22.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BEDFORD PARK          22.0   600 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   BRONX                 20.9  1200 PM 12/27  PUBLIC-BRONX ZOO      
   WEST FARMS            20.5  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   EASTCHESTER           20.0   925 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   RIVERDALE             19.4   840 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   PELHAM BAY            17.2   840 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   EAST TREMONT          16.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   PARKCHESTER           15.7  1140 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  

...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY...
   MARINE PARK           24.5   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                                    
   SHEEPSHEAD BAY        24.0   700 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
       
...NASSAU COUNTY...
   NORTH MASSAPEQUA      23.5  1200 PM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   LEVITTOWN             21.9   119 PM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   PLAINVIEW             20.5  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OLD BETHPAGE          20.5   907 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WOODMERE              19.4   950 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   CARLE PLACE           18.2  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FLORAL PARK           18.0  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FARMINGDALE           18.0  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   NEW HYDE PARK         16.8   200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   GARDEN CITY           16.7   930 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   BELLMORE              16.4  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BALDWIN HARBOR        16.0   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   VALLEY STREAM         16.0  1150 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   LONG BEACH            16.0   245 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SEAFORD               15.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                
   WEST HEMPSTEAD        12.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   GLEN COVE             12.0  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK          20.0   700 AM 12/27  ASOS                         

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   TUXEDO PARK           26.0   255 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   MONROE                26.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   HARRIMAN              26.0   630 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HIGHLAND MILLS        25.0   915 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   WASHINGTONVILLE       22.0  1043 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MOUNTAIN LODGE PARK   22.0  1121 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   CORNWALL ON HUDSON    18.0  1130 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MONTGOMERY            18.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   NEW WINDSOR           17.5   745 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   GOSHEN                17.5   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NEWBURGH              16.5   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WARWICK               14.0  1011 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MIDDLETOWN            13.0  1020 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                          

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
   COLD SPRING           17.0   730 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   LAKE CARMEL           13.5   940 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER               
   MAHOPAC               12.5   100 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   MIDDLE VILLAGE        21.5  1250 PM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   FLUSHING              21.0   207 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BAYSIDE               20.5  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RICHMOND HILL         18.0  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ASTORIA               16.1   801 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   FRESH MEADOWS         16.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   1 W NYC/JFK AIRPORT   15.5   700 AM 12/27  ASOS                    
   NYC/LA GUARDIA        14.0   700 AM 12/27  ASOS                    
   HOWARD BEACH          14.0  1200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WOODSIDE              14.0   645 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
   GREAT KILLS           29.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   ELTINGVILLE           22.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   STATEN ISLAND         17.8   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   TALLMAN               24.0  1055 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   WEST HAVERSTRAW       21.0   130 PM 12/27  PUBLIC                         

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   UPTON                 18.8   100 PM 12/27  NWS OFFICE              
   NORTH BABYLON         18.5   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   CENTEREACH            17.0   930 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PATCHOGUE             17.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   WEST ISLIP            16.0  1215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   EAST NORTHPORT        15.5   715 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUND BEACH           15.5   300 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE         
   NORTHPORT             15.2   138 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   CENTERPORT            15.0   650 AM 12/27  COOP-OBSERVER           
   EAST SETAUKET         15.0   715 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   MOUNT SINAI           14.2  1255 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   ISLIP AIRPORT         14.2   100 PM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER   
   SAYVILLE              14.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   QUOGUE                14.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   SHOREHAM              14.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HOLBROOK              12.5   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   BAITING HOLLOW        12.0   145 PM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   SMITHTOWN             11.5  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   DIX HILLS             10.7   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ORIENT                10.0  1230 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   FLANDERS              10.0   620 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                      
   STONY BROOK            7.3  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER                 
   MATTITUCK              6.0  1100 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   LARCHMONT             22.0   940 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   SCARSDALE             22.0   915 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   BRONXVILLE            22.0   935 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   MOUNT VERNON          22.0   940 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   ARMONK                20.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   YONKERS               19.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON    18.0   930 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                                  
   BRIARCLIFF MANOR      13.1   810 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                         
           

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                        GUST            OF 
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      60   921 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   GREENWICH               60  1000 PM 12/26  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   DANBURY                 60  1031 PM 12/26  ASOS                    

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   NEW HAVEN               60  1201 AM 12/27  ASOS                    
   MADISON                 56   345 PM 12/26  PUBLIC                  
   MERIDEN                 54  1147 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   OXFORD                  52  1035 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   MOMAUGUIN               40  1144 AM 12/26  MESONET                 

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   NEW LONDON              68   115 AM 12/27  MESONET                 
   GROTON                  59  1126 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   GALES FERRY             59   814 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   OAKLAND                 40   730 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   TETERBORO               39   723 PM 12/26  ASOS                    

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   NEWARK AIRPORT          51   709 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   NEWARK                  39   313 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   CALDWELL                35   812 PM 12/26  ASOS                    

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
   PARKCHESTER             53  1140 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   BAYVILLE                68  1037 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   KINGS POINT             59  1142 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   SEAFORD                 59  1200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FARMINGDALE             52   835 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   CARLE PLACE             41  1200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK            36   944 PM 12/26  ASOS                    

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   MONROE                  50  1200 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   MONTGOMERY              36   445 AM 12/27  ASOS                    

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   1 W NYC/JFK AIRPORT     59   954 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   NYC/LA GUARDIA          55   952 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   BREEZY POINT            48  1040 PM 12/26  MESONET                 

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
   GREAT KILLS             50   600 PM 12/26  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   TAPPAN                  52   933 PM 12/26  MESONET                 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   PATCHOGUE               67   914 PM 12/26  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ISLIP AIRPORT           64   910 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   SHINNECOCK HILLS        62   838 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   GILGO BEACH             60  1045 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   MOUNT SINAI             60  1245 AM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   WESTHAMPTON             56  1053 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   MONTAUK                 55  1124 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   SHIRLEY                 55  1030 PM 12/26  ASOS                    
   FIRE ISLAND             54   655 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   EAST MORICHES           54   920 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   MECOX                   53  1040 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   FISHERS ISLAND          52   125 AM 12/27  MESONET                 
   NAPEAGUE                51   543 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   BLUE POINT              50   900 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   ORIENT                  50  1230 AM 12/27  PUBLIC                  
   BRIDGEHAMPTON           50   800 PM 12/26  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   LINDENHURST             47   546 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   STONY BROOK             46   620 PM 12/26  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MONTAUK POINT           45   657 PM 12/26  ASOS                    

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   WHITE PLAINS            67   121 AM 12/27  ASOS                    
   HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON      63   930 PM 12/26  PUBLIC                  
   LARCHMONT               50   950 PM 12/26  MESONET                 
   CROTON FALLS            47  1115 PM 12/26  MESONET 

 

[mob1]

That storm is my favorite storm ever, especially because it was followed by a long stretch of cold and snowy weather we had continuous snow cover for months. 1996 is a close second for me. 

[Mr. T.]

Remember that vividly. Everything was tracking it OTS and the Euro was the ONLY ONE that had it phase closer to the coast. Got 36+ inches for that one. And the UNOFFICIAL (really official) record was 39 inches in Brick, NJ. Personally think its the record from one snow storm in NJ, but hey who's keeping count.

Update: Was the GFS not the Euro. Been a while.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Mr. T. said:

Remember that vividly. Everything was tracking it OTS and the Euro was the ONLY ONE that had it phase closer to the coast. Got 36+ inches for that one. And the UNOFFICIAL (really official) record was 39 inches in Brick, NJ. Personally think its the record from one snow storm in NJ, but hey who's keeping count.

elizabeth nj had recorded 36 inches....they thought they took the prize until that brick report. 

[RU848789]

I did this for folks elsewhere so thought folks might like this summary of all the watches for NWS-Philly and NWS-NYC, as well as the map of watches and the new snowfall map.  Getting officially excited as my point-and-click is up to 6.9"...

Winter storm watches up for most of the region (counties in grey), so the forecast is obviously gaining in confidence, but still some uncertainty in how far north/northeast the warm air aloft makes it, turning snow to sleet for some of the storm (outright plain rain is looking unlikely for any part of CNJ). Watches are up for the following areas for the snow/sleet and ice amounts listed with some comments from looking at the point/click forecasts which are not explicitly listed in the watches.

• For 4-6" for Camden, Coastal Ocean, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington Counties; for this area, the NWS is expecting some of that to be sleet, which could keep accumulation depth down
• For 4-6" and up to 0.2" ice glaze for Carbon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Philadelphia-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks Counties; obviously the NWS feels there's more chance of sleet and then freezing rain here
• For 5-8" for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-WesternMonmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Monroe; NWS is basically calling for all snow for these counties
• For areas SW of the Philly/Camden/Burlco counties, the NWS-Philly is still predicting a few inches of snow, then sleet, then rain as those areas will be closer to the warmer air aloft from the storm; these areas will likely get advisories tomorrow.
• For 4-8" for almost the entire NWS-NYC area, i.e., Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau; the only exception is eastern Suffolk, where they expect sleet to keep accumulations down.
• All of the watches are in this link: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm watch

[SnoSki14]

Looks to be on par with the other snow event we got recently here aka 5-6" near Somerset. 

[Northof78]

19 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Winter storm watch feels good 

feels real good on Christmas eve....

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I did this for folks elsewhere so thought folks might like this summary of all the watches for NWS-Philly and NWS-NYC, as well as the map of watches and the new snowfall map.  Getting officially excited as my point-and-click is up to 6.9"...

Winter storm watches up for most of the region (counties in grey), so the forecast is obviously gaining in confidence, but still some uncertainty in how far north/northeast the warm air aloft makes it, turning snow to sleet for some of the storm (outright plain rain is looking unlikely for any part of CNJ). Watches are up for the following areas for the snow/sleet and ice amounts listed with some comments from looking at the point/click forecasts which are not explicitly listed in the watches.

• For 4-6" for Camden, Coastal Ocean, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington Counties; for this area, the NWS is expecting some of that to be sleet, which could keep accumulation depth down
• For 4-6" and up to 0.2" ice glaze for Carbon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Philadelphia-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks Counties; obviously the NWS feels there's more chance of sleet and then freezing rain here
• For 5-8" for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-WesternMonmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Monroe; NWS is basically calling for all snow for these counties
• For areas SW of the Philly/Camden/Burlco counties, the NWS-Philly is still predicting a few inches of snow, then sleet, then rain as those areas will be closer to the warmer air aloft from the storm; these areas will likely get advisories tomorrow.
• For 4-8" for almost the entire NWS-NYC area, i.e., Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau; the only exception is eastern Suffolk, where they expect sleet to keep accumulations down.
• All of the watches are in this link: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm watch

Uh, sleet? I don't think that's what they are expecting for eastern Suffolk lol

[wthrmn654]

And suddenly my zone forecast has gone crazy: but no watch

Friday

A 20 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 30. North wind 6 to 9 mph.

Friday Night

Snow. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34.

[Mr. T.]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

elizabeth nj had recorded 36 inches....they thought they took the prize until that brick report. 

I wish I took a screenshot of the mount holly report that day. I'm sure I can find it, but let's I remember Elizabeth got 36 and Brick got 39. I just remember being in Jackson, NJ and shoveling the deck to make sure it wouldn't collapse. Never had to do that before.

[sussexcountyobs]

WSW up here for 5-8"

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Uh, sleet? I don't think that's what they are expecting for eastern Suffolk lol

You are correct sir.  Was guessing a bit, since the AFD wasn't out when I wrote that.  Here's what they said: "There is greater uncertainty further east due to the interaction with the lingering surface ridging/dry air and overall lower liquid equivalents."

[wthrmn654]

Snow maps have gone up too.  Old point map versus new range map

[wthrmn654]

Michael- Right now, the highest confidence for a warning level snowfall is across the western portions of our forecast area. (west of eastern Long Island). We will continue to monitor data over the next 12-24 hours and see if adjustments to the forecast needs to change.  But right now, the best chance for 6+ inches appears to be west of eastern Long Island

[psv88]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Haven't had a winter storm watch in years 

Yet we got 8” of snow out here last week. 

[wthrmn654]

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

What`s Changed: A winter storm watch has been issued for the Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey, NYC metro, Nassau, Western Suffolk, and Fairfield County 5pm Friday through 1 pm Saturday. Key Messages: * Confidence in a winter storm impacting the area Friday evening through Saturday morning continues to increase. * Heavy snow is possible Friday night/early Saturday morning. Total accumulation ranges from 4 to 8 inches in the watch area and 2 to 5 inches east of the watch in SE CT and east end of Long Island. Guidance continues to come into agreement on a winter storm moving across the region Friday evening into Saturday morning. A fast moving shortwave and associated middle level energy will traverse around the periphery of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the central states. Ahead of the system, arctic air will advect southward over the northeast Thursday night as high pressure settles over Quebec and ridges down into the area. This high slows down due to blocking over the North Atlantic, which allows the cold air to lock into place over the area through Saturday. Low pressure associated with the aforementioned shortwave energy will approach late Friday and pass across the Middle Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. The low should then move further offshore Saturday afternoon. With arctic air in place on Friday (highs in the upper 20s to around 30, and dew points in the single digits), any precip will have a difficult time reaching the ground. This is especially through the middle of the afternoon. Lift ahead of the system begins to increase and saturation will begin from the mid and upper levels and eventually down to the surface by evening. Snow should begin to reach the surface late afternoon and especially in the evening from around the NYC metro on north and west. Further east, it may take a bit more time to saturate and break through the dry air and surface ridging, with accumulating snow likely here overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Snow, potentially heavy at times, is expected Friday night. Where uncertainty lies is where any heavier bands will set up. We are still just outside the range of the higher resolution modeling. However, there are signals in the global models that hint that heavy banding may set up over portions of the area, especially within the watch. There is an impressive thermal gradient with the arctic air over New England, with milder air further south and west over the Ohio Valley. Mid level frontogenesis (H7) will increase substantially Friday evening and continue through early Saturday morning. The region also lies within the left exit region of the upper jet allowing for larger scale lift to coincide with the middle level lift. Lift should begin to weaken Saturday morning, but there may be some left over light snow across some parts of the area in the morning before ending midday. The region of the strongest lower/middle lift remains in question and may fluctuate a bit over the next several model cycles, but overall the general idea does not change with this upcoming event. Probabilities have increased for a warning level (6" or more of snow) with the latest with the latest WPC WWD and NBM. This has led to an increase in the areal coverage of higher probabilities (around 50%) in the WPC WSO. Based on these trends as well as increasing confidence in evolution of the system, have issued a winter storm watch for all but the east end of Long Island and south central and eastern Long Island. Confidence lowers a bit across Long Island and southern Connecticut, but felt western Suffolk and Fairfield were close enough to warning criteria to include in a watch. There is greater uncertainty further east due to the interaction with the lingering surface ridging/dry air and overall lower liquid equivalents. Snowfall Forecast: 4 to 8 inches possible within the watch area and 2 to 5 inches further east outside of the watch. A reasonable worst case scenario of 8 to 10 inches currents exists within the watch area with potential locations further east could still see warning criteria met. Snowfall rates: Peak rates around 1 inch per hour possible. There is a low chance rates could come close to 2 inches per hour in heavier banding. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer. There is still some concern with the warm advection aloft Friday night bringing in a mix with sleet late in the event. Some earlier model runs were showing this potential. The latest NBM probability of sleet is very low and trends seem to be leaning towards keeping the precipitation all snow across the area. Models can sometimes underestimate the warm advection aloft. This is something that will need to be watched, especially for parts of northeast NJ and interior Lower Hudson Valley as this is the direction the warm air aloft tries to move in from the west. There are no wind concerns with this event as the pressure gradient is relatively weak. Temperatures Thursday night will bottom out in the teens to lower 20s. Highs on Friday will only be in the upper 20s to around 30. Temperatures during the snow Friday night should be in the mid to upper 20s with highs on Saturday struggling to rise above freezing

-- End Changed Discussion --

[North and West]

Haven't had a winter storm watch in years 

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[North and West]

not a single sounding posted in this thread. lots of kuchera maps though 

There’s the Christmas spirit.


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[snywx]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Surprised they left E Suffolk out but these days they rarely put areas in they are not highly confident reach 6 or will have both snow/mixed precip

I haven’t seen much guidance that gives any confidence of 6+ out there. Prob will go with WWA tomorrow for E Suffolk and around BDR

[Roger Smith]

A more general answer about outcomes for heavy snowfall Decembers in the past ...

40 Decembers have seen 8.0" or more (of 157 incl 2025 so far)

29 Decembers have seen 10.0" or more.

There were only four seasonal totals below 30 inches in these forty winters, and only one below 20 inches.

All of those were well back in the record, the more recent snowy Decembers have generally surpassed 40 inches in seasonal totals. Of course, the snowier the December, the less extra snow is required to break any given target, but as a general rule it appears that you can triple to quaadruple total December snowfall to get a reasonable estimate of most winter totals. 

I noticed a typo in the NWS discussion, they say 8-10 inches is a worst case scenario, we all know they meant best case scenario. (merry Christmas)

I will stick to my first call of 3 to 6 inches for the region in general and 8 to 12 inch local banding near Raritan Bay into areas like New Brunswick and Somerville NJ. 

 

[MANDA]

40 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

feels real good on Christmas eve....

Agreed.  Reminds me of the good old days.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

and growing up in the 70s i can tell you, i can remember only two storms in that whole era that even came close....feb 78 and feb 83. and they were not on the same level, although removal efforts were even worse back then....special mention of the bizarre april 82 storm is always obligatory as well....

Don’t forget Jan 78.  It was really nice waking up to a foot of totally unexpected snow.

[coastalplainsnowman]

41 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

feels real good on Christmas eve....

Feels like an Old Milwaukee beer commercial.  It doesn't get any better than this.

That cringe was intentional. But true.