White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[weatherwiz]

Everything that fell here is all gone...melted caput. Only part of the yard that still has a coating is where we had the pool.so there is a random giant circular spot that has a coating of snow and that's it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Pass 24/7/365 on a 4 week vacation. Lol

It was amazing as a kid.  Best snow forts ever!!

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

It was amazing as a kid.  Best snow forts ever!!

...so that was you in the other snowfort...

[WxWatcher007]

Lost our coating at WXW1 too 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Everything that fell here is all gone...melted caput. Only part of the yard that still has a coating is where we had the pool.so there is a random giant circular spot that has a coating of snow and that's it.

Keep in mind some people did guarantee a white christmas...you should ask for a refund!

[moneypitmike]

Based on the 12z runs, I'd bump Jeff's hood up.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This didn't happened when I was in school (although maybe it was being discussed when I was in high school and implemented shortly after) but do they use days from like February or April break to make up for snow days instead of going deeper into June? I know some districts had done this. 

Back in the stone age (50s-60s) NNJ schools would schedule a few "snow days" to avoid early summer classes.  (No schools had AC then.)  I think only 60-61 required the extended days, as we lost 6 days to snow.  Fortunately, the Feb 3-4 bomb was Fri-Sat.  If mid-week it would've closed 3 days instead of one.
I'm sure that Fort Kent has been lawyered away from the 70s-80s when our 9.7 years there included only 1.5 days of closes, all in 1984.
 

Based on the 12z runs, I'd bump Jeff's hood up.

He's close to the Pike, so already in the 8-12 color.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, tamarack said:

Back in the stone age (50s-60s) NNJ schools would schedule a few "snow days" to avoid early summer classes.  (No schools had AC then.)  I think only 60-61 required the extended days, as we lost 6 days to snow.  Fortunately, the Feb 3-4 bomb was Fri-Sat.  If mid-week it would've closed 3 days instead of one.
I'm sure that Fort Kent has been lawyered away from the 70s-80s when our 9.7 years there included only 1.5 days of closes, all in 1984.

At one time I had family in the Fort Kent and Caribou areas. One of my uncles said in all the years he lived in Caribou there was only one school closing  that he could recall and that was because the school bus doors were frozen and could not be open

[Sey-Mour Snow]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Everything that fell here is all gone...melted caput. Only part of the yard that still has a coating is where we had the pool.so there is a random giant circular spot that has a coating of snow and that's it.

Melting quicker here than my melt incoming when the 12z EURO is congrats philly for Friday.. 

[WxWatcher007]

Temperatures are even marginal up here. Just started snowing at WXW2.

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

All guidance is hammering you and I's area, Going to be a nowcast deal.

NAM and Euro have been consistent tainting my area, haven't seen that factored into GYX or any other forecast yet. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d be willing to bet there’s a band of 12-15” along the Maine coast 

This is why moose have NBA legs

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Melting quicker here than my melt incoming when the 12z EURO is congrats philly for Friday.. 

so much for low sun angle saving things...I mean we don't even have any sun and its melting. 

Would have needed a good 3-4" OTG. I don't care what the sun angle is or what the sky cover is...if its into the 30's anything less than that is going to melt, albelit slowly but still melt. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm. 

You can see this on radar. But you can also see it's very brief. Might be elevation-dependent. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

so much for low sun angle saving things...I mean we don't even have any sun and its melting. 

Would have needed a good 3-4" OTG. I don't care what the sun angle is or what the sky cover is...if its into the 30's anything less than that is going to melt, albelit slowly but still melt. 

Yup 33.3 and almost all the snow is melted from the trees. Driveway and yard is caked good but the sun tomorrow should zap it all away. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yup 33.3 and almost all the snow is melted from the trees. Driveway and yard is caked good but the sun tomorrow should zap it all away. 

yup...sun during the day tomorrow with temperatures into the mid 30's...bye bye snow. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

NAM and Euro have been consistent tainting my area, haven't seen that factored into GYX or any other forecast yet. 

The warming is quite shallow though so it can be overcome with good rates.

[Kitz Craver]

Yup not gonna get it done for a White Christmas unfortunately 

[dryslot]

Right in the tip.........

[CoastalWx]

I think the only chance I  have of greater than an inch is tomorrow with that dong flying down the coast. Feels like kind of a Hail Mary.

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dendy’s size getting bigger as more forcing moves in 

[DavisStraight]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Right in the tip.........

Looks like I miss this one, close but no cigar, unless it shifts south a bit.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup...sun during the day tomorrow with temperatures into the mid 30's...bye bye snow. 

You need about 1.5-2” and you’ll be good. Any coatings will melt/sublimate. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like I miss this one, close but no cigar, unless it shifts south a bit.

Not going to know until go time.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You need about 1.5-2” and you’ll be good. Any coatings will melt/sublimate. 

Thoughts on rest of today / evening?

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thoughts on rest of today / evening?

Why are you asking???...you wrote that 1-4 has been guaranteed for days...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Thoughts on rest of today / evening?

Not optimistic. There’s an area of forcing knifing SE that is supposed to blossom Some snow for eastern areas later on this evening…that’s what could give a quick burst of actual half-decent rates. But it could also stay too far northeast. 
 

The dying WAA tries to rejuvenate some weaker echoes this afternoon but I am not counting on anything from that. For far eastern MA, they might try and sneak a piece of the IVT tomorrow….but that is low probability. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Based on the 12z runs, I'd bump Jeff's hood up.

Bumped up here to 3 to 6 inches with an advisory

[jbenedet]

I’m not expecting more than 0.2” LE from this. 
 

4-6” range here is shtoooopid.

[The 4 Seasons]

Nice band of 2-6" in Orange and Rockland counties