12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[T. August]

Anyone have precip and or snow on ukie?

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Maybe it was an icing situation I am thinking about. Which would make more sense.

Warning for ice would be 1/4 inch or more

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet makes no friends for dc area. 

It's still the only one showing temperature problems. I mean any random trend can happen...but with zero support of that less than 24 hours away, it's hard to give it any credence.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

 

Baby got you sleep deprived? 

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

4-7" just north of Baltimore? Holy shit!

Yeah with 1”/hr rates it won’t take long to clear 4” NE of balt

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I like how the HRR shows the heaviest snow to the south but the accumulations over Wills house. I think he prefers that model 

One red flag on HRRR is surface temps especially DC south....

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Anyone have precip and or snow on ukie?

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

 

Move that purple line an inch south would ya?  

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I like how the HRR shows the heaviest snow to the south but the accumulations over Wills house. I think he prefers that model 

Nooo wayy

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

One red flag on HRRR is surface temps especially DC south....

Temp crash is gonna be stressful and I might end up wrong but I’m not worried about it if the rates that are promised come. Kind of a chicken and egg thing. If it’s ripping and dark and temps are crashing, we're fine. If we’re stuck on the SW end and fringed, the UKIE is probably doing an okay job. I’m just thrilled with the WSW (west-southwest, not winter storm warning - tho I do think NEmd gets upgraded later) trend this morning.  Hope that runs to game time. 

[wxdude64]

32 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Canadian 12z ..

That CAN'T be right, puts a high bullseye on the Virginia high desert country....

[TSSN+]

Here comes the system 

 

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temp crash is gonna be stressful and I might end up wrong but I’m not worried about it if the rates that are promised come. Kind of a chicken and egg thing. If it’s ripping and dark and temps are crashing, we're fine. If we’re stuck on the SW end and fringed, the UKIE is probably doing an okay job. I’m just thrilled with the WSW (west-southwest, not winter storm warning - tho I do think NEmd gets upgraded later) trend this morning.  Hope that runs to game time. 

worried this might end up like feb 16-17 2024 (if any of all remember that—quick moving system in the nighttime). forecasted then was 3-5" for DC but ended up with a coating. I don't think this will happen however because the airmass is colder than then

[LVblizzard]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

One red flag on HRRR is surface temps especially DC south....

I wouldn’t worry about that too much. I’m in eastern PA and earlier this week we had an event that the HRRR said would be all or mostly rain. Instead my area got a nice C-2” event with some 3” spots.

[winter_warlock]

True.. lol

[nw baltimore wx]

For anyone wishing for LWX to issue warnings, we almost always do better when they play catch-up.  I don't need to see my house in the pink map.  Just let it snow!

[rjvanals]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

worried this might end up like feb 16-17 2024 (if any of all remember that—quick moving system in the nighttime). forecasted then was 3-5" for DC but ended up with a coating. I don't think this will happen however because the airmass is colder than then

I remember that one and could see that as a scenario where this could bust. 

[WhiteoutMD]

True.. lol

And spotted lanterns


.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 14Z HRRR Hr. 18

I’m getting a “ Delayed but….” Feeling for the onset of rain to snow 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I tried to find a pic of my late 70s Bearcat weather radio - it was off white with an orange on/off button.  That's all I had, along with local news and 936-1212 LOL

I'm getting more hopeful for the snow with latest models.  Let's keep the good trends going and fill that gap in the western part of our forum!

I had a green one that looked like  a Borg  ship cube 

[jayyy]

Canadian is definitely the best region wide outcome. Getting close to nowcast time

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

And spotted lanterns


.

I hate those damn things lol

[NorthArlington101]

EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain. 

My map little better 

 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain. 

How did the AIFS look?

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain. 

Idk, I’m starting to feel a Baltimore screw job in my bones. Ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 I feel. I just struggle to believe the GFS or Canadian/RDPS when so many mesos want to favor north. And now tick north/drier on the euro.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

How did the AIFS look?

It had been skunking us for days but is now essentially identical to the Euro

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain. 

It gets drier as other guidance is juicing up. Toss.

[WxUSAF]

40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temp crash is gonna be stressful and I might end up wrong but I’m not worried about it if the rates that are promised come. Kind of a chicken and egg thing. If it’s ripping and dark and temps are crashing, we're fine. If we’re stuck on the SW end and fringed, the UKIE is probably doing an okay job. I’m just thrilled with the WSW (west-southwest, not winter storm warning - tho I do think NEmd gets upgraded later) trend this morning.  Hope that runs to game time. 

Here's the 3k NAM sounding right as precip is about to start in DC.  Above freezing part of the column is *extremely* shallow.  Like 975mb or lower?  And even that part of the column has a wet bulb of 32-33.  At worst, that's probably like a few minutes of sprinkles and as soon as there are any rates at all, it's snow.