The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[TSSN+]

Gfs took a decent north bump

[NorthArlington101]

[WxUSAF]

Click through the previous 5-6 GFS runs and you can see our shortwave gets much sharper and better defined.  Confluence is bouncing around more, which isn’t surprising from a more poorly sampled region.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs took a decent north bump

And much juicier down south. @Bob Chillgonna need to put the plow on his tractor.

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs took a decent north bump

Yes,  18z gives me 1.6" compared to 12z at .7"

[Chris78]

Good luck to those around DC and South. I hope you get on the board. 

I think for us northerners it's getting late pretty quick.

[SnowenOutThere]

Hopefully the GFS run stops the downers from taking over the thread 

[baltosquid]

On GFS It looks like there’s a piece of energy that has dove in over the past few runs from the lakes/midwest which is helping us. More interaction seems to be helping it spin up some.

[T. August]

GFS is def more expansive precip-wise but not sure it’s actually north. It does get around an inch into DC at least.

[stormtracker]

Well

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hopefully the GFS run stops the downers from taking over the thread 

It’s definitely getting harder to stay positive. But we’ve seen comebacks in shorter time, so we hang in there till at least 12z tomm

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well

Not bad, norther this time

[WxUSAF]

18z rgem was also north. It more clearly is loosening the confluence vs recent runs. Can we sustain some positive trends for more than 1 cycle now?

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It’s definitely getting harder to stay positive. But we’ve seen comebacks in shorter time, so we hang in there till at least 12z tomm

No! We've seen failures in shorter times. Lol

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

almost as much snow in DC as 12z euro

That was the significant north shift? It’s getting late, early for this one. I don’t like the trajectory. Needs to be more southwest to northeast.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

That was the significant north shift? It’s getting late, early for this one. I don’t like the trajectory. Needs to be more southwest to northeast.

That’s the 12z run he posted, 18z is better. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s definitely getting harder to stay positive. But we’ve seen comebacks in shorter time, so we hang in there till at least 12z tomm

I’m coming at this from the perspective of this setup was never really supposed to snow and it was only yesterday it even became a possibility due to out west trending better and emphasize shortwave 1, In a lot of ways it’s more practice than anything. Though I can’t lie and say my mood isn’t boosted by being 100 miles south of most posters.

[JenkinsJinkies]

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I’m coming at this from the perspective of this setup was never really supposed to snow and it was only yesterday it even became a possibility due to our west trending better. In a lot of ways it’s more practice than anything. Though I can’t lie and say my mood isn’t boosted by being 100 miles south of most posters.

You’re doing good, keep it up

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That’s the 12z run he posted, 18z is better. 

Thanks, I am an idiot and didn’t notice which run it was. Makes more sense now.

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s definitely getting harder to stay positive. But we’ve seen comebacks in shorter time, so we hang in there till at least 12z tomm

I’m ride or die with this one. Just like I was with the Falcons against Brady 

[H2O]

Wait.   Shit

[mitchnick]

18z Rgem came north fwiw.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That was the significant north shift? It’s getting late, early for this one. I don’t like the trajectory. Needs to be more southwest to northeast.

shoot, wrong one. Sorry about that

[H2O]

Nothing like a wrong snow map getting posted to cause AEDs to be needed across the area

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Nothing like a wrong snow map getting posted to cause AEDs to be needed across the area

I remember I did something like that on one of my first posts and I was severely admonished.  

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Nothing like a wrong snow map getting posted to cause AEDs to be needed across the area

Typical Bncho 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And much juicier down south. @Bob Chillgonna need to put the plow on his tractor.

Lol. Usually keep a grapple on the front of my tractor but I switched it to the bucket today... to move gravel...but you never know lol. Could bomb off the coast and drop a foot. 

I'm sticking to gut call of 1-2" but would gladly accept the 18z gfs or 12z low res nam haha

[aldie 22]

You're welcome 

[87storms]

16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Good luck to those around DC and South. I hope you get on the board. 

I think for us northerners it's getting late pretty quick.

There’s a little stripe of vorticity along the m/d line that’s stayed pretty consistent on the models. Maybe that adds enough lift to get a coating here. That’s my bar. North shift is nice, but it’s gonna be finding some low dews.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2025120318&fh=42