December Banter 2025

[George BM]

Thursday, December 4, 2025 3:58PM EST

Extreme Cold, High Wind and Blizzard warnings are in place across the region in anticipation of the historic storm about to commence over the region. This storm will have many similarities to the Great Appalachians Storm of late November 1950 except the whole setup will be shifted east by a few hundred miles.

…

Nestor will continue to be absorbed into the large surface low deepening off the Carolinas over the next 12 hours or so as a result of the deep and record cold trough and embedded shortwave approaching the coast. Temps have already fallen into the teens northwest of I-95 and will fall through the night into the low to mid-single digits areawide on strong NNW winds gusting to around 40 to 50 mph. This will bring windchills down into the -20 to -30F range in the greater DC metro area, hence the Extreme Cold Warning in place.

As the night wears on the large upper-level trough will start to cutoff as the shortwave rounding the base of said trough takes on a strongly negative tilt. This will result in the surface low deepening explosively as it begins to track to the northwest back towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will throw snow back into our region from east to west through the predawn hours reaching the Blue Ridge by sunrise.

Friday, December 5^th and Saturday, December 6^th will be two days that are remembered for the long time in these parts. As the surface low continues to deepen bands of very heavy snow will be thrown west across the region as NNW winds gust over 60 mph areawide with some gusts pushing 75 mph in the mountains and near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River. Temperatures will remain in the 0 to 5F range throughout the day as well, meaning windchills will be as low as -25 to -30F. Snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour will be common leading to whiteout conditions. The snow, cold and wind combo will make even being outside very dangerous if not adequately bundled up for the elements.

The heaviest snow and highest winds will last through the late evening and into the early overnight hours. But the storm will be long from done. The surface low will stall and spin over or just off of the Delmarva allowing blizzard conditions with heavy snow and strong winds to continue throughout the day on Saturday. Temps on Saturday may actually warm into the double-digits… generally 10-15F raising windchills into the -5 to -15F range. It won’t be until late Saturday night into Sunday morning when the surface low rotates to the east and out to sea allowing the snow to taper off from west to east throughout the night.

Snowfall totals:

Snowfall totals will be truly historic and life-altering with 45-65” being commonplace across the Greater Metro area. However, owing to the high winds and the low water content of the snow, snow drifts may be as high as 35 feet burying homes and businesses underneath the snow.

Winds:

Winds gusts will peak in the 60 to 70 mph range (locally 75 mph) from Friday afternoon through about midnight (12am) Saturday but will continue gusting over 50 mph through Saturday evening.

Temperatures:

Temperatures will fall into the lower single digits late tonight and hold steady within a few degrees of this through predawn Saturday before rising into the lower teens by Saturday afternoon.

[gopper]

models, model, models!  so many models!

eons ago there were two models that were the go to models.  I think it was the AVN and the Eta model.  I remember folks talking about the E/A rule (i believe it was called).  If these two models agreed on snow, then it was a sure bet.

Later the models changed and increased in number, but when the Euro came to America, it rapidly took over the kingship of models to trust most.

Now with so many models printing out such a variety of possibilities when it comes to snow in a given area,  I've had to put all my chips into the Ji rule: whichever model shows the least amount of snow is the one that verifies. I find if I put my faith in the snowless model, it usually verifies, and if not, I get the excitement of a surprise snow!  According to the Ji rule, I should expect no snow for the next two storms, despite the fact that some of the majors are showing some snow for my area just north of Baltimore.  Going with the least snow solution is depressing, but there is the thrill of a surprise, if indeed, the least snowy model is wrong and we get a decent snow.  Hate to say it, but Ji is becoming my HM!  He will never, ever take the place of usetobe, however.  usetobe is always the EF Hutton of this board.  When he says its gonna snow, it snows!

All that said, my faith in the flakes/forecasts really rests in the many mets. who post on this board.  Their insight, thoughts and ways of understanding the synoptics and interpret the models is really of extreme value.  What a blessing it is to be able to learn from so many trained mets., forecasters, and expert teachers!  And if I am too old to learn it, I just appreciate the knowledge shared by our experts!!  Keep on doing what you do so well!!!  There will always be onlookers (like me) who will gain from your insight.

[AlexD1990]

Thursday, December 4, 2025 3:58PM EST
Extreme Cold, High Wind and Blizzard warnings are in place across the region in anticipation of the historic storm about to commence over the region. This storm will have many similarities to the Great Appalachians Storm of late November 1950 except the whole setup will be shifted east by a few hundred miles.
…
Nestor will continue to be absorbed into the large surface low deepening off the Carolinas over the next 12 hours or so as a result of the deep and record cold trough and embedded shortwave approaching the coast. Temps have already fallen into the teens northwest of I-95 and will fall through the night into the low to mid-single digits areawide on strong NNW winds gusting to around 40 to 50 mph. This will bring windchills down into the -20 to -30F range in the greater DC metro area, hence the Extreme Cold Warning in place.
As the night wears on the large upper-level trough will start to cutoff as the shortwave rounding the base of said trough takes on a strongly negative tilt. This will result in the surface low deepening explosively as it begins to track to the northwest back towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will throw snow back into our region from east to west through the predawn hours reaching the Blue Ridge by sunrise.
Friday, December 5^th and Saturday, December 6^th will be two days that are remembered for the long time in these parts. As the surface low continues to deepen bands of very heavy snow will be thrown west across the region as NNW winds gust over 60 mph areawide with some gusts pushing 75 mph in the mountains and near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River. Temperatures will remain in the 0 to 5F range throughout the day as well, meaning windchills will be as low as -25 to -30F. Snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour will be common leading to whiteout conditions. The snow, cold and wind combo will make even being outside very dangerous if not adequately bundled up for the elements.
The heaviest snow and highest winds will last through the late evening and into the early overnight hours. But the storm will be long from done. The surface low will stall and spin over or just off of the Delmarva allowing blizzard conditions with heavy snow and strong winds to continue throughout the day on Saturday. Temps on Saturday may actually warm into the double-digits… generally 10-15F raising windchills into the -5 to -15F range. It won’t be until late Saturday night into Sunday morning when the surface low rotates to the east and out to sea allowing the snow to taper off from west to east throughout the night.
Snowfall totals:
Snowfall totals will be truly historic and life-altering with 45-65” being commonplace across the Greater Metro area. However, owing to the high winds and the low water content of the snow, snow drifts may be as high as 35 feet burying homes and businesses underneath the snow.
Winds:
Winds gusts will peak in the 60 to 70 mph range (locally 75 mph) from Friday afternoon through about midnight (12am) Saturday but will continue gusting over 50 mph through Saturday evening.
Temperatures:
Temperatures will fall into the lower single digits late tonight and hold steady within a few degrees of this through predawn Saturday before rising into the lower teens by Saturday afternoon.

I missed this last month! Thank you!!!

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[dailylurker]

12 hours ago, George BM said:

Thursday, December 4, 2025 3:58PM EST

Extreme Cold, High Wind and Blizzard warnings are in place across the region in anticipation of the historic storm about to commence over the region. This storm will have many similarities to the Great Appalachians Storm of late November 1950 except the whole setup will be shifted east by a few hundred miles.

…

Nestor will continue to be absorbed into the large surface low deepening off the Carolinas over the next 12 hours or so as a result of the deep and record cold trough and embedded shortwave approaching the coast. Temps have already fallen into the teens northwest of I-95 and will fall through the night into the low to mid-single digits areawide on strong NNW winds gusting to around 40 to 50 mph. This will bring windchills down into the -20 to -30F range in the greater DC metro area, hence the Extreme Cold Warning in place.

As the night wears on the large upper-level trough will start to cutoff as the shortwave rounding the base of said trough takes on a strongly negative tilt. This will result in the surface low deepening explosively as it begins to track to the northwest back towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will throw snow back into our region from east to west through the predawn hours reaching the Blue Ridge by sunrise.

Friday, December 5^th and Saturday, December 6^th will be two days that are remembered for the long time in these parts. As the surface low continues to deepen bands of very heavy snow will be thrown west across the region as NNW winds gust over 60 mph areawide with some gusts pushing 75 mph in the mountains and near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River. Temperatures will remain in the 0 to 5F range throughout the day as well, meaning windchills will be as low as -25 to -30F. Snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour will be common leading to whiteout conditions. The snow, cold and wind combo will make even being outside very dangerous if not adequately bundled up for the elements.

The heaviest snow and highest winds will last through the late evening and into the early overnight hours. But the storm will be long from done. The surface low will stall and spin over or just off of the Delmarva allowing blizzard conditions with heavy snow and strong winds to continue throughout the day on Saturday. Temps on Saturday may actually warm into the double-digits… generally 10-15F raising windchills into the -5 to -15F range. It won’t be until late Saturday night into Sunday morning when the surface low rotates to the east and out to sea allowing the snow to taper off from west to east throughout the night.

Snowfall totals:

Snowfall totals will be truly historic and life-altering with 45-65” being commonplace across the Greater Metro area. However, owing to the high winds and the low water content of the snow, snow drifts may be as high as 35 feet burying homes and businesses underneath the snow.

Winds:

Winds gusts will peak in the 60 to 70 mph range (locally 75 mph) from Friday afternoon through about midnight (12am) Saturday but will continue gusting over 50 mph through Saturday evening.

Temperatures:

Temperatures will fall into the lower single digits late tonight and hold steady within a few degrees of this through predawn Saturday before rising into the lower teens by Saturday afternoon.

You forgot to mention how it still managed to change to sleet over JI's house and he only gets 2-4"

[H2O]

This will be a complaining about the complaining post but I swear there are 3-6 people here who suck all the fun out of this hobby and this place 

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

This will be a complaining about the complaining post but I swear there are 3-6 people here who suck all the fun out of this hobby and this place 

3-6 is warning Criteria! Lol. I think you went a little conservative I have it at 4-8.