12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[TSSN+]

Nam and euro just a bit different at h5…

 

[Weather Will]

Aren't the NAMs going away next month?  I don't know why they don't just put them to rest.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS is the NAM replacement, I think.

[MillvilleWx]

45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I like how you changed the arc of your line just in time to keep it just north of stephens city. Lol

That area is where the drop in elevation starts out of Winchester. Could very well be wrong, but this setup has happened historically, much to your chagrin, so I went that route. I do think you could see an inch out that way, but better chance just north. 

[bncho]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs. 

who do you think has a better handle on the solution right now?

[Maestrobjwa]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs. 

Given how terribly did with the February threat...I'm not trusting it, lol

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

who do you think has a better handle on the solution right now?

Euro/eps doing best with general pattern, but not sure about thermals. Could turn out to be flatter/weaker but warmer like gfs/nam. 

[87storms]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. 

EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

Frederick is overdue for a win in the snow department. I’m pretty sure Bethesda has gotten more snow since I moved here.

[bncho]

18z GFS looks a hair more south?????

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

If we ever get a real snowstorm, AI ensembles going to look like 12k NAM and RGEM had a baby

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

Yeah, we noticed that looking at the MSLP member plots and looking at the ptype output. It's skewed high and some gaudier members in there too. I think what the AIFS and ECWMF deterministic are showing are pretty good agreement with the op more on the drier side in the northwest edge of the precip field. EC has had a drier bias in that area over the past few years and beefs up a bit as move closer. Unless there's a purely synoptic based reasoning for that sharper delineation on the northwest edge of a cyclone, there will likely be a small correction. I think we are closing in on a more reputable solution. 

[bncho]

man fuck the GFS

[anotherman]

man fuck the GFS

Hahahaha

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

The way to a cold rain

Pretty much.  His map is how I think this one will play out. A classic N and W special. Us city folks gotta wait a little longer. Hopefully the 6th or 10th comes thru. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Pretty much.  His map is how I think this one will play out. A classic N and W special. Us city folks gotta wait a little longer. Hopefully the 6th or 10th comes thru. 

I’m thinking the 10th with a few mangled flakes prior to

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

man fuck the GFS

Not much different than 12z so least no north shift let’s see what 0z holds.