Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chambana]

First half of January is toast. The blistering hot start to winter has come to a screeching halt. Signs of a more active and colder second half of January though, we shall see. Pretty disheartening to be wasting peak winter like this.

[Frog Town]

Just need to keep that -NAO in check so we don't end of CAD...In this pattern, a weaker -NAO(with all other things being equal) is a what we want.  

I know the east coasters hate this but what's good for them is not necessarily good for us.  -NAO is good for us when it comes to maintaining a winter like pattern locally, but ideally after we have a deep snow pack.  

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Just need to keep that -NAO in check so we don't end of CAD...In this pattern, a weaker -NAO(with all other things being equal) is a what we want.  

I know the east coasters hate this but what's good for them is not necessarily good for us.  -NAO is good for us when it comes to maintaining a winter like pattern locally, but ideally after we have a deep snow pack.  

Agree. If we can kick off cold with a big storm than get a cold clipper pattern, that's all good.

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree. If we can kick off cold with a big storm than get a cold clipper pattern, that's all good.

Exactly! 

[cyclone77]

Looks like the next system of note will be a rainer around Jan 9th-10th.

[Frog Town]

43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the next system of note will be a rainer around Jan 9th-10th.

Seems like that's been progged pretty well and is apparently part of the pattern change mid-January that everyone is banking on.  

[RogueWaves]

Clipper on the 6th still has my attention. Then a rainer, and then maybe something better.

[DocATL]

GFS bringing on spring. Some decent soakers toward the latter part of the run. Probably get punished for this come late January but for now it’s a warm look.

[A-L-E-K]

New year, same old zzzzzs

[hawkeye_wx]

Apparently, the Euro weeklies are showing plenty of snow and cold across the midwest from mid January to early February.

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Apparently, the Euro weeklies are showing plenty of snow and cold across the midwest from mid January to early February.

I can be patient and wait 10 days for this pattern flip that seems to be modeled pretty well on just about everything, but I'm hoping it lasts for a few weeks.  Hate to wait 10 days for something that lasts 5...

[cyclone77]

Euro looks like crickets through mid month.  We'll probably get 2 weeks of action at the end of Jan, and then another 5-6 weeks of CAD/Michigan clippers through early March. 

[roardog]

Overall in the means the pattern has definitely been different than what we’ve seem from the mid 2010s until recently. It seems like it was just about impossible to get sustained western US ridging for many years. Alek always used to post about how it’s always wet in this new climate. We’ve seen some deviation from that recently too. 

[dmc76]

Don’t worry it’ll be in the 30’s/40’s in mid April in SEMI 

[RogueWaves]

4 minutes ago, roardog said:

Overall in the means the pattern has definitely been different than what we’ve seem from the mid 2010s until recently. It seems like it was just about impossible to get sustained western US ridging for many years. Alek always used to post about how it’s always wet in this new climate. We’ve seen some deviation from that recently too. 

I just had Cold And Wet this December - that's a welcomed change.

[A-L-E-K]

Took a peak at the euro...rough, real rough

[frostfern]

7 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Don’t worry it’ll be in the 30’s/40’s in mid April in SEMI 

I need to bank on warmer spring months to offset boring thunderless summers lately.

[Torchageddon]

2 hours ago, frostfern said:

I need to bank on warmer spring months to offset boring thunderless summers lately.

Still amused that my best t-storms now are in April not mid-summer. This may be the case in other parts of the US but historically not here with the lakes being as cold as they are and other reasons. There has been only 1 storm that struck fear in me mid-summer in the last 5-8 years and it was that cell that moved from the NW.

This pattern has been anything but boring in the belts - great for LES here, I'm getting more than pegged.

[Stevo6899]

18 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Don’t worry it’ll be in the 30’s/40’s in mid April in SEMI 

Its good to see you've come over to the dark side with me. 6 years plus since detroits seen a storm over 8 inches I think.

[DocATL]

Ensembles are ugly as all hell.

[A-L-E-K]

Remember the hot start?

[Cary67]

Sub 30" seasonal totals will be tough with 2.5 months worth of nickle dimer chances left. Already at 20" here for the season. Another week or 2 window of opportunity will probably reveal itself before mid March. However N.IL was pretty much ground zero for the 1st window; doubt it happens for the 2nd window.

[DocATL]

Remember the hot start?

Never a harbinger, always a curse.

[Chicago Storm]

Never a harbinger, always a curse.

incorrect.

[Powerball]

On 1/1/2026 at 9:21 AM, cyclone77 said:

Euro looks like crickets through mid month.  We'll probably get 2 weeks of action at the end of Jan, and then another 5-6 weeks of CAD/Michigan clippers through early March. 

It's definitely michsnowfreak's time for sure this winter

Nickel & dimed to death, but mostly consistent snowcover and cold, lol...

[DocATL]

incorrect.

lol…I figured that was coming.