Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chambana]

First half of January is toast. The blistering hot start to winter has come to a screeching halt. Signs of a more active and colder second half of January though, we shall see. Pretty disheartening to be wasting peak winter like this.

[Frog Town]

Just need to keep that -NAO in check so we don't end of CAD...In this pattern, a weaker -NAO(with all other things being equal) is a what we want.  

I know the east coasters hate this but what's good for them is not necessarily good for us.  -NAO is good for us when it comes to maintaining a winter like pattern locally, but ideally after we have a deep snow pack.  

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Just need to keep that -NAO in check so we don't end of CAD...In this pattern, a weaker -NAO(with all other things being equal) is a what we want.  

I know the east coasters hate this but what's good for them is not necessarily good for us.  -NAO is good for us when it comes to maintaining a winter like pattern locally, but ideally after we have a deep snow pack.  

Agree. If we can kick off cold with a big storm than get a cold clipper pattern, that's all good.

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree. If we can kick off cold with a big storm than get a cold clipper pattern, that's all good.

Exactly! 

[cyclone77]

Looks like the next system of note will be a rainer around Jan 9th-10th.

[Frog Town]

43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the next system of note will be a rainer around Jan 9th-10th.

Seems like that's been progged pretty well and is apparently part of the pattern change mid-January that everyone is banking on.  

[RogueWaves]

Clipper on the 6th still has my attention. Then a rainer, and then maybe something better.

[DocATL]

GFS bringing on spring. Some decent soakers toward the latter part of the run. Probably get punished for this come late January but for now it’s a warm look.

[A-L-E-K]

New year, same old zzzzzs

[hawkeye_wx]

Apparently, the Euro weeklies are showing plenty of snow and cold across the midwest from mid January to early February.

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Apparently, the Euro weeklies are showing plenty of snow and cold across the midwest from mid January to early February.

I can be patient and wait 10 days for this pattern flip that seems to be modeled pretty well on just about everything, but I'm hoping it lasts for a few weeks.  Hate to wait 10 days for something that lasts 5...

[cyclone77]

Euro looks like crickets through mid month.  We'll probably get 2 weeks of action at the end of Jan, and then another 5-6 weeks of CAD/Michigan clippers through early March.