Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

The coping is starting as we watch prime winter climo slide by with bare grass

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

Forecasted high of 41 now for Christmas. Zzzzzzzzzz…….

Probably copy and paste for St.Patricks Day also

[A-L-E-K]

too real^

[WestMichigan]

Doesn't look like this will be changing anytime soon.

[Stebo]

Watching Michigan for an ice potential on Friday, both the Euro and GFS are showing pretty significant icing for Friday as a system slides to our south.

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Watching Michigan for an ice potential on Friday, both the Euro and GFS are showing pretty significant icing for Friday as a system slides to our south.

Been watching that as well. GFS most bullish especially out your way. Will be something to watch the next couple of days. 

[Torchageddon]

My 'mas high is now 0C cloudy. I prefer below freezing during the highs as not to wax and mar the infrastructure e.g. roads. Starting next Sun night, consensus is that a new snowy era starts with cold temps into the new year. WUN (which I take with a pinch of cumin), has 7-10cm/2.8-4" daily starting Sun. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

 

Yep, ya'll can keep that shit

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

 

This run of the GFS had a very wide sleet zone for some reason. I feel like it's going to either be snow or freezing rain, with very minimal sleet.

[WestMichigan]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This run of the GFS had a very wide sleet zone for some reason. I feel like it's going to either be snow or freezing rain, with very minimal sleet.

I'll take sleet over 1/4"+ of freezing rain.

[Stevo6899]

4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I'll take sleet over 1/4"+ of freezing rain.

I'll take today's 45 and sun, feels like 60 out there from the single digits we felt a few days ago. This storm looks to develop and blossom overhead so maybe dynamic cooling can take over and deliver the snow goods.

[Cary67]

Warmth maybe showing signs of backing down and/or retrograding SW in the longer range. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'll take today's 45 and sun, feels like 60 out there from the single digits we felt a few days ago. This storm looks to develop and blossom overhead so maybe dynamic cooling can take over and deliver the snow goods.

You staying all winter?

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

The coping is starting as we watch prime winter climo slide by with bare grass

Prime winter climo is mid January to mid February. Last 30 years, percentage of 1"+ snowdepth on Christmas is 40%. On groundhog day its 67%.

[Stevo6899]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You staying all winter?

I'm heading south tomorrow until March 1st. Of course I'll will fly home for a good storm. Nothing has come up the past 5 winters to warrant a trip back.

[migratingwx]

Well, this is an interesting development.

[Torchageddon]

22 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

Well, this is an interesting development.

 

 

 

I can't write outside the quote so its nested in, that would be an astronomical amount of snow IMBY - pushing 30 inches lol. I'd leave cookies out for santa to make it happen.

[Baum]

A RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE   NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 MAY RETURN TO THE REGION AS   EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR   SNOW BY MIDWEEK.    
 

oops.

[Frog Town]

Watches likely to be issued for southern mi this afternoon.  Even though it's for ice, still makes it feel more festive with a potential winter-type storm looming.  Better than what it looked like a week ago when they were talking about mid 60's.  

[roardog]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

Watches likely to be issued for southern mi this afternoon.  Even though it's for ice, still makes it feel more festive with a potential winter-type storm looming.  Better than what it looked like a week ago when they were talking about mid 60's.  

Yeah. It looks nasty. Models showing .5-.75 inches of rain with most of it being freezing rain. 

[Malacka11]

Is there any chance that this business on Monday could work out to be half an event for someone? Or just a total mirage?

[sbnwx85]

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Is there any chance that this business on Monday could work out to be half an event for someone? Or just a total mirage?

Looks like a swing and a miss unless you only look at the Canadian.

12z runs were brutal overall.

[mimillman]

Brutal 

[ChiTownSnow]

On 12/24/2025 at 10:31 AM, Malacka11 said:

Is there any chance that this business on Monday could work out to be half an event for someone? Or just a total mirage?

Ai euro says yes

[michsnowfreak]

Euro weeklies keep average to below average temps for the Great Lakes the entire 5 week run (starting Dec 29). They change daily but looks like any prolonged abnormal warmth in the north is unlikely once we flush this crap out. 

[Roger Smith]

Locally heavy snow potential Toronto to Hamilton ON Friday with lake-enhanced bands 10-20 cm possibly more around Oakville-Burlington. 

[sbnwx85]

Wind and lake effect have some potential to make things interesting locally on Monday. Not huge amounts, but wind-driven snow and cold. Beyond that, the Euro at least has a couple fantasy storms.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah first fantasy cutter in a while, hopefully our doldrums end before too long, it's been way boring

[bowtie`]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Yeah first fantasy cutter in a while, hopefully our doldrums end before too long, it's been way boring

Anne Lennox is going to be hoarse from non-use if it does not change