Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[DocATL]

Based on recent multiyear trends... 
 
- Nice long range signal (check)
- 3 days out, epic Euro run (check)
- South, Drier, Weaker trend to begin (pending)
- Model rug pull within 30 hours (pending)
- 1-2" actual result (pending) 

2” for Naperville. Final call.

[Stevo6899]

15 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I don't think it will be that prolific but I would lean more right than left. Mostly because we are rapidly running out of time for a rug pull. The amount of cold air in place is going to do work and with the current system being as strong as it will be it limits the cutability of this one.

agreed, we've seen drastic shifts in this timeframe when a strong system is currently ongoing and not out of the region yet, which alters the baroclin zone/track of the next storm

[CheeselandSkies]

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in.

Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

[Baum]

23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in.

Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

Moisture robber not an issue. Checks box.

[Stevo6899]

Has the euro been known lately for being too amped cause it's drastically stronger than most models with the slp. Usually the gfs is on the stronger side...

[ChiTownSnow]

Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago? 

[jlauderdal]

Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago? 

There is plenty to worry about,keep the faith, the last 24 hours are trending our way for a northern Illinois hit .

[Baum]

48 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago? 

If the L goes west of you you’ll be dry slotted. Fact of life. And I’ll worry about that after I’ve got my 4” of WAA snow. 

[sbnwx85]

Just sharing because it shows the NWS Blend of models

 

[Paulie21]

Hope the GIF works..
18z NAM for ORD here. Pretty decent co-location between Omega and DGZ. Fairly shallow DGZ sitting at 100-150mb depth; and though best omega is a bit above, still not too bad. 
There's also some slight jet coupling perhaps earlier in the event. Tough to tell the ratios between WAA snow, decent dynamics, but also at worst some precip mixing.  Personally think KLOT is a bit lambish but it is tough to tell for now.

We'll have a better idea with high res models of course. Hoping we can squeeze a brief weenie band somewhere midday in nIL. 

[Chicago Storm]

24 minutes ago, Paulie21 said:

Personally think KLOT is a bit lambish but it is tough to tell for now.

LOT is 100% going to play it safe this go-around, after the single person blunder with the LES event.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Sign me up, still snowing at 84 

[Chicago Storm]

4 hours ago, Sciascia said:

You don’t say…

CJ is the worst of the worst.

[Baum]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

LOT is 100% going to play it safe this go-around, after the single person blunder with the LES event.

They’ve been torched badly, as have all of us, with dramatic shifts in guidance within less than 48 hours the past 5 years. This time, they’re boxed in by the holiday so guessing will have to jump the gun on headlines overnight if trends hold. And again, given climatology this would be a substantial event for this period in the season. 

[Chicago Storm]

Looking over guidance from today, the big thing that sticks out is how much wetter the Euro/EPS are compared to almost all other guidance.

We have seen through the years that the Euro tends to be on the drier side more often than not, and when it is, it is usually close to reality.

So, it'll be interesting to see how it does with being on the wetter side this go-around.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah lotta d2-3 euro vaporware big dogs in the modern era

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

They’ve been torched badly, as have all of us, with dramatic shifts in guidance within less than 24 hours the past 5 years. This time, they’re boxed in by the holiday so guessing will have to jump the gun headlines overnight if trends hold. And again, given climatology this would be a substantial event for this period in the season. 

Overnight will be 48 hours out from the start in the CWA, so they're going to have to go with a watch with the evening or early morning package.

[A-L-E-K]

Friday gonna be an s tier posting day for us real heads

[Chicago Storm]

Looking over guidance from today, the big thing that sticks out is how much wetter the Euro/EPS are compared to almost all other guidance.
We have seen through the years that the Euro tends to be on the drier side more often than not, and when it is, it is usually close to reality.
So, it'll be interesting to see how it does with being on the wetter side this go-around.

18z Euro…

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Friday gonna be an s tier posting day for us real heads

Slap in a bears win with some model watching for a big day, could be #chefskiss

[ILSNOW]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looking over guidance from today, the big thing that sticks out is how much wetter the Euro/EPS are compared to almost all other guidance.

We have seen through the years that the Euro tends to be on the drier side more often than not, and when it is, it is usually close to reality.

So, it'll be interesting to see how it does with being on the wetter side this go-around.

18z Euro is drier and more in line with other models.

[cyclone77]

Guessing the cat is the Euro.

[homedis]

Seems more reasonable tbh, track still looks good & I’d be very happy with a widespread 6-8”.

[Baum]

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Guessing the cat is the Euro.

Pretty much expected: ALTHOUGH, WE ARE NOT   COMPLETELY SOLD ON WHAT THE EURO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, AS IT IS   LARGELY AN OUTLIER. THE GFS/GEFS AND THE CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE   ARE NOT AS HIGH WITH TOTALS, BUT STILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. QC

[Radtechwxman]

18z euro more realistic with other models now and still a nice hit for a lot of subforum. I would be very happy with that outcome. Hopefully we don't start a drying trend though. 

 

[weathafella]

Hi fellow snow weenies.  We’re camped out in Wilmette-looking good!  I’m thinking 4-8.

[sbnwx85]

1 hour ago, homedis said:

Seems more reasonable tbh, track still looks good & I’d be very happy with a widespread 6-8”.

This is it. 6-8", especially in November, is a big win. Hopefully sets the tone of the rest of the winter!

[nvck]

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in.

Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

we can't have our cake and eat it too...

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z Euro…

Hopefully the 18z EPS won’t show as much of a reduction in QPF…we’ll see I guess. 

[nvck]

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Hopefully the 18z EPS won’t show as much of a reduction in QPF…we’ll see I guess. 

 

There is a reduction from the 12z, but relative to the 6z and 0z, looks fairly similar