December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

95-96 Niña

I honestly thought it, but I didn't want to mention it and sound so professional. 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs total run....lol

[midatlanticweather]

When you are on the southern edge of a big snow, the reality usually is not the best... I am just saying. 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs total run....lol

Total flakes sighted? 28 here seems accurate. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

When you are on the southern edge of a big snow, the reality usually is not the best... I am just saying. 

Def makes sense to Deb over one model run 

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

When you are on the southern edge of a big snow, the reality usually is not the best... I am just saying. 

Sure would like to know your definition of southern edge lol

[Benjamn3]

Is it just me that worries about the pattern flipping to a torch around Christmas week? Trauma from years past I reckon. 

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Is it just me that worries about the pattern flipping to a torch around Christmas week? Trauma from years past I reckon. 

Most here wouldn’t love that but wouldn’t mind if they got 20” next week.

[NorthArlington101]

I thought the 6z EURO and 6z AIFS made steps to meet each other in the middle (what we want). Would’ve loved to see a few more frames of the 6z EURO. 

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I thought the 6z EURO and 6z AIFS made steps to meet each other in the middle (what we want). Would’ve loved to see a few more frames of the 6z EURO. 

i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z

[Ji]

The euro at 6Z/144 is much colder at 850 than 00z

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs total run....lol

Gfs seems to be locked in. Obviously has pattern progression nailed. I’m alerting the Facebook universe with ai generated images of milk, bread, and toilet paper.

[LeesburgWx]

In 9 pages. I have not seen, “the big ones are sniffed out early” yet, so I’m catching us up here

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

In 9 pages. I have not seen, “the big ones are sniffed out early” yet, so I’m catching us up here

It's La Nina...the odds of the  big ones aren't on our side. I'd be happy with several light to moderate events that yield snow-on-snow. 

[H2O]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Sure would like to know your definition of southern edge lol

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

In 9 pages. I have not seen, “the big ones are sniffed out early” yet, so I’m catching us up here

Actually, I  mentioned that last night. No way I'll let a classic weenie stand-by be forgotten. BUT, there some truth to that on occasion. 

[Heisy]

The euro at 6Z/144 is much colder at 850 than 00z

Yea it matches fairly well with 6z gfs. Long way to go, but a nice step.




.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea it matches fairly well with 6z gfs. Long way to go, but a nice step.




.

Heisey! Don't be a stranger and be sure to let us know HM's thoughts as we get closer.

[TSSN+]

6z euro def better than 0z thru 144. So that’s something.

 

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro def better than 0z thru 144. So that’s something.

 

 

Absolutely. And wrt the 850's, the 6z now has that classic drainage down the eastern side of the Apps that was missing at 0z.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Absolutely. And wrt the 850's, the 6z now has that classic drainage down the Apps that was missing at 0z.

Can we just score one early for once that would be amazing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

The Canadian high on the 06z Euro is a tad east for my liking. That setup can erode the CAD situation with prolonged southeast winds. Would like to see that backed up further west into the St. Lawrence River Valley.

[MillvilleWx]

Hmmmmmmm *Cracks knuckles* 

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hmmmmmmm *Cracks knuckles* 

Come on.. dive it. The water is warm, just like you like it. Come on.. we're all in here. Even JI is splashing and giggling. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hmmmmmmm *Cracks knuckles* 

I could hear that all the way in Gaithersburg.

[MillvilleWx]

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center. 

Please keep talking dirty to me. 

[LP08]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Absolutely. And wrt the 850's, the 6z now has that classic drainage down the eastern side of the Apps that was missing at 0z.

Don’t hate this look at range

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center. 

It's early and cold air is iffy down here, but the midwest storms today and Nov 30 will pay a role in laying down snow cover and reducing modification of cold air setting us up for the threat next week.