December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah this is only a few days out. That said some minor tweaks could get our region in on the northern edge(again). Probably gotta root for more amplification earlier.

But it's much closer to the euro solution for D6-7...

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

But it's much closer to the euro solution for D6-7...

The advertised pattern is conducive for something next week- we need some luck as always.

[Buddy1987]

Can’t remember the last time I even thought to use “Sasketchewan Screamer” or “Manitoba Mauler” in my vocabulary. Potential shot after shot next couple weeks. 

[WVclimo]

12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Can’t remember the last time I even thought to use “Sasketchewan Screamer” or “Manitoba Mauler” in my vocabulary. Potential shot after shot next couple weeks. 

When I was guessing what kind of winter to expect, to make a forecast in the seasonal snow contest, I leaned on a blend of 2010-11 and 2000-01.

Dec 2010 had a lot of clippers that snowed on SWVA, S WV, and the Smokies of NC.  I think Roanoke had at least 3 accumulating events that month, including one on Christmas.  A pattern that left my part of WV cold and dry.

[Yardstickgozinya]

5 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Not sure how this gets weenied as it’s just a fact per models they don’t show nothing in the extended period precipitation wise but keep it chilly. 

Well, let me inject some reality into this space. Social media brain rot dude. It runs as strong in this forum as any forum I've ever been a member of. If you don't  live in people's delusions and false realities, you get frowny face stickers and temper tantrums, just like in preschool. Social media and the people that use it are becoming extremely hard to tolerate both on the internet and in the real world.  True, working class people with good families, homes and jobs don't have time for such a silly and juvenile wastes of time.  Every day its more increasingly obvious who's spending too much time on social media and what it's done to them over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. They live every day in fear of the next and bad mouth, anybody who doesn't partake in their delusions, realities or belief systems. It may be going seemingly unnoticed here, but in the real world, people are becoming increasingly fatigue of this kind of behavior for very good reason.

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

When I was guessing what kind of winter to expect, to make a forecast in the seasonal snow contest, I leaned on a blend of 2010-11 and 2000-01.

Dec 2010 had a lot of clippers that snowed on SWVA, S WV, and the Smokies of NC.  I think Roanoke had at least 3 accumulating events that month, including one on Christmas.  A pattern that left my part of WV cold and dry.

Does that mean you also expect a “one that got away” 12”+ snow event that eventually gets evaporated on guidance?

[WVclimo]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Does that mean you also expect a “one that got away” 12”+ snow event that eventually gets evaporated on guidance?

That’s the point where my memory block kicks in lol.   I’m a glass half-full guy so I prefer to look forward to the late Jan 2011 event redux.

[wxdude64]

20 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

When I was guessing what kind of winter to expect, to make a forecast in the seasonal snow contest, I leaned on a blend of 2010-11 and 2000-01.

Dec 2010 had a lot of clippers that snowed on SWVA, S WV, and the Smokies of NC.  I think Roanoke had at least 3 accumulating events that month, including one on Christmas.  A pattern that left my part of WV cold and dry.

Not quite as south as Roanoke, but looking back at my records, Dec 2010 was a fun month. 12.6" snow, 19 days of SOG, 13 days with a 'T', 8 days with measurable snow and only 10 days snowless. I'd take a repeat. And yes, it snowed on 24th and 25th here that year, about 3 inches total.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Happy hour for @Bob Chill for Monday-Tuesday

Train tracks, atmospheric memory, butts and horseshoes, and stuff like that. 

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Not quite as south as Roanoke, but looking back at my records, Dec 2010 was a fun month. 12.6" snow, 19 days of SOG, 13 days with a 'T', 8 days with measurable snow and only 10 days snowless. I'd take a repeat. And yes, it snowed on 24th and 25th here that year, about 3 inches total.

Dec 2010 has been showing up on the analogs last few days. I was going to post about it except there was a certain storm near a certain holiday that certain people spent lots of money on ptsd treatment and drugs afterwords.... but here we are... bring it. My new yard enjoyed that month. 

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dec 2010 has been showing up on the analogs last few days. I was going to post about it except there was a certain storm near a certain holiday that certain people spent lots of money on ptsd treatment and drugs afterwords.... but here we are... bring it. My new yard enjoyed that month. 

I was up in northern Jersey at the time and still remember GFS bringing it back two days before Boxing Day. Let’s say 12/26/10 made up for 2/5/10 in NYC.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

I was up in northern Jersey at the time and still remember GFS bringing it back two days before Boxing Day. Let’s say 12/26/10 made up for 2/5/10 in NYC.

That specific storm isn't showing up for now but it was a wintry month just with some bad breaks in the MA. Interestingly, Dec 1995, 2010, and 2013 are all showing up in the mix. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dec 2010 has been showing up on the analogs last few days. I was going to post about it except there was a certain storm near a certain holiday that certain people spent lots of money on ptsd treatment and drugs afterwords.... but here we are... bring it. My new yard enjoyed that month. 

That storm was at least respectable here- 5", which fell short of the 12" forecast- and it wasn't too far east of my yard in DE where 10-12" did fall. I would take my chances with a similar set up again.

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

I was up in northern Jersey at the time and still remember GFS bringing it back two days before Boxing Day. Let’s say 12/26/10 made up for 2/5/10 in NYC.

Given how far south it’s been does that mean 12/20/25 could potentially make up for 2/20/25 in these parts?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That storm was at least respectable here- 5", which fell short of the 12" forecast- and it wasn't too far east of my yard in DE where 10-12" did fall. I would take my chances with a similar set up again.

I've always thought that. It was just incredibly bad luck. The WAA piece was mature but it completely fizzled to nothing on the transfer. Usually when it's mature like that, the metros get some ok accum snow before the skip over and pounding NE. Boxing day was some sort of payback for 09-10 lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I've always thought that. It was just incredibly bad luck. The WAA piece was mature but it completely fizzled to nothing on the transfer. Usually when it's mature like that, the metros get some ok accum snow before the skip over and pounding NE. Boxing day was some sort of payback for 09-10 lol

You moved to the new snow capital.  

[JakkelWx]

I know of a certain storm in march 24 years ago with even worse luck...

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I know of a certain storm in march 24 years ago with even worse luck...

This is our Voldemort 

[wxdude64]

I've opened the box of pandora! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is our Voldemort 

I’m pretty sure that title goes to this past February.

[Scraff]

51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Train tracks, atmospheric memory, butts and horseshoes, and stuff like that. 

And rabbits in Derwood running for their lives. 

[GATECH]

Man, y’all went to some dark places reminiscing about those that could have been.  The good news is with the improvement of the models we don’t get left at the alter as much…we get much more warning that we are going to get screwed over now!   

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

I know of a certain storm in march 24 years ago with even worse luck...

auto-ban if you mention it.

[Yeoman]

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Well, let me inject some reality into this space. Social media brain rot dude. It runs as strong in this forum as any forum I've ever been a member of. If you don't  live in people's delusions and false realities, you get frowny face stickers and temper tantrums, just like in preschool. Social media and the people that use it are becoming extremely hard to tolerate both on the internet and in the real world.  True, working class people with good families, homes and jobs don't have time for such a silly and juvenile wastes of time.  Every day its more increasingly obvious who's spending too much time on social media and what it's done to them over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. They live every day in fear of the next and bad mouth, anybody who doesn't partake in their delusions, realities or belief systems. It may be going seemingly unnoticed here, but in the real world, people are becoming increasingly fatigue of this kind of behavior for very good reason.

Wow, that was quite a monologue.. I think you got all the DLC content for “Old Man Yells at Cloud” in one post.

Look, most of us here have jobs, families, mortgages, and unrepaired stuff around the house too. We’re just capable of talking about things on the internet without assuming every disagreement is the fall of Western civilization.

People can use social media without turning into phone-addled cultists, the same way people can enjoy coffee without becoming baristas or watch football without trying to buy a team. If someone having a different opinion online feels like a personal attack, maybe the issue isn’t the forum, maybe it’s Randy.

Anyway, thanks for the reality injection. I’ll check for side effects and get back to scrolling memes like a degenerate.

[Yardstickgozinya]

17 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Wow, that was quite a monologue.. I think you got all the DLC content for “Old Man Yells at Cloud” in one post.

Look, most of us here have jobs, families, mortgages, and unrepaired stuff around the house too. We’re just capable of talking about things on the internet without assuming every disagreement is the fall of Western civilization.

People can use social media without turning into phone-addled cultists, the same way people can enjoy coffee without becoming baristas or watch football without trying to buy a team. If someone having a different opinion online feels like a personal attack, maybe the issue isn’t the forum, maybe it’s Randy.

Anyway, thanks for the reality injection. I’ll check for side effects and get back to scrolling memes like a degenerate.

I realized this is the wrong thread, so I'm not going to comment past this post., but take a look up Pal .I'm not alone and for the most part I agree with you, because I never said everybody, Also what I said. has nothing to do with personal attacks and everything to do with people expecting others here to live and take part in there fantasy land.  It's become systemic here and abroad and it's time for those that are aware of what i'm talking about to stop playing along. I'm not going to be handcuffed  by a bunch of stupid f****** hot dogs, smiley faces and certainly not for a group of people that for the most part, treat each other and strangers like f****** a*******. 

[nw baltimore wx]

[WesternFringe]

Hoping that Monday/Tuesday BobChill storm gets slightly more organized before the high pressure dropping in from the north shreds it.  The precipitation field might reach me if that happens.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

Wow, that was quite a monologue.. I think you got all the DLC content for “Old Man Yells at Cloud” in one post.

Look, most of us here have jobs, families, mortgages, and unrepaired stuff around the house too. We’re just capable of talking about things on the internet without assuming every disagreement is the fall of Western civilization.

People can use social media without turning into phone-addled cultists, the same way people can enjoy coffee without becoming baristas or watch football without trying to buy a team. If someone having a different opinion online feels like a personal attack, maybe the issue isn’t the forum, maybe it’s Randy.

Anyway, thanks for the reality injection. I’ll check for side effects and get back to scrolling memes like a degenerate.

Wait, what?  Why am I catching strays???

[stormtracker]

40 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: