December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

95-96 Niña

I honestly thought it, but I didn't want to mention it and sound so professional. 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs total run....lol

[midatlanticweather]

When you are on the southern edge of a big snow, the reality usually is not the best... I am just saying. 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs total run....lol

Total flakes sighted? 28 here seems accurate. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

When you are on the southern edge of a big snow, the reality usually is not the best... I am just saying. 

Def makes sense to Deb over one model run 

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

When you are on the southern edge of a big snow, the reality usually is not the best... I am just saying. 

Sure would like to know your definition of southern edge lol

[Benjamn3]

Is it just me that worries about the pattern flipping to a torch around Christmas week? Trauma from years past I reckon. 

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Is it just me that worries about the pattern flipping to a torch around Christmas week? Trauma from years past I reckon. 

Most here wouldn’t love that but wouldn’t mind if they got 20” next week.

[NorthArlington101]

I thought the 6z EURO and 6z AIFS made steps to meet each other in the middle (what we want). Would’ve loved to see a few more frames of the 6z EURO. 

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I thought the 6z EURO and 6z AIFS made steps to meet each other in the middle (what we want). Would’ve loved to see a few more frames of the 6z EURO. 

i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z

[Ji]

The euro at 6Z/144 is much colder at 850 than 00z

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs total run....lol

Gfs seems to be locked in. Obviously has pattern progression nailed. I’m alerting the Facebook universe with ai generated images of milk, bread, and toilet paper.

[LeesburgWx]

In 9 pages. I have not seen, “the big ones are sniffed out early” yet, so I’m catching us up here

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

In 9 pages. I have not seen, “the big ones are sniffed out early” yet, so I’m catching us up here

It's La Nina...the odds of the  big ones aren't on our side. I'd be happy with several light to moderate events that yield snow-on-snow.