December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Hazey]

12z Icon looks decent. Gfs lost system. Canadian drives s/w up into Maine. Tells me what I need to know. We stay the course.

[Kitz Craver]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's still there but it gets ground up by low heights to our northeast. I actually thought it might improve at first because it was lsightly better out west....but the vortex to our northeast keeps the flow too flat to allow the WAA to get going. 

Scooter shit streak. Add it to the list

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

This was a really fun post to read 

 

I’ll never forget there was some suppressed storm years ago in the Mid-Atlantic, and somebody from RIC posted about southern VA getting crushed in the main tracking thread. They almost started a civil war lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Like Will said, maybe some sort of a compromise. Hell I’d take the Icon despite riding the rain line. At least it’s not grinded to pieces on all models. Hopefully euro and its T100 brother have it.

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, klw said:

Does anyone remember the winter of 81-82?   The Mansfield stake is tracking it very closely so far.  (Not a basis to make predictions but it made me realize I don't remember much about that winter. Though to be fair to me I was living in NJ and in 7th grade.)

 

https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

 

 

I mentioned it the other day, well I had originally thought it was 80-81 before @tamarackcorrected me .  It might be my favorite winter.  It seemed to snow a couple of times a week and stayed pretty cold throughout.  At one point, our 4' electric fences were buried.

[Spanks45]

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this. 

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

[codfishsnowman]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We actually have 1980s low temps too this time. 

I remember delivering newspapers in seventh grade in minus two temps with a freshening northerly breeze so wc had to be minus 25 or more on a Saturday morning in January and pretty sure the ground was bare

[dendrite]

It’s kinda funny looking back at those charts I posted during the 80s. The first week of Dec in those decades were relatively warm minus 1989. Of course the scripts flipped in Jan many of those years including Jan 1990 which flipped warm.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

That's the thing too...there are way too many products out there (which are not even NCEP products, just derived products from 3rd party vendors) which everyone flocks too and leads to unnecessary hype and unrealistic expectations. This includes snow maps, precipitation type maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, etc. If snow maps were never created, probably 85% of extended storms would garner little interest outside of the, "Oh look the GFS has an HECS at D10". Now, folks see a 8 day 24 HR snow map which 20-30 inches and all of a sudden, "there's a real threat". Same goes with severe...so many events in the midwest now are labeled with having potential to produce numerous tornadoes and strong/violent tornadoes because STP is forecast to be 5 or SCP is forecast to be 20. 

[codfishsnowman]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ll never forget there was some suppressed storm years ago in the Mid-Atlantic, and somebody from RIC posted about southern VA getting crushed in the main tracking thread. They almost started a civil war lol. 

I went into their thread right after the back to back Monster snowstorms in 09-10 asking if some folks really had up to four feet on the level and I was told to go back to my forum and stay out of theirs. I had heard some places just outside of Baltimore had accomplished that incredible feat.

[Typhoon Tip]

ICON's taking a stab at the 00z Euro notion on this 12z run fwiw -

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In my view, the 2"+ that I have is a bonus....I didn't expect anything yet. I bet most would feel the same had they not been focused on the southern mid atl.

Bonus for sure IMO, for MBY area. Anything before the end of the month has always been seen as a bonus to me. I wonder how many who whine about it are quite a bit younger. Heading towards, 60 I've seen more than my share of duds in SNE!

[Kitz Craver]

24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I mentioned it the other day, well I had originally thought it was 80-81 before @tamarackcorrected me .  It might be my favorite winter.  It seemed to snow a couple of times a week and stayed pretty cold throughout.  At one point, our 4' electric fences were buried.

I think that was 95-96 down here for us? Someone can correct me if I’m wrong. But I recall it snowing like every other day. It was a constant stream of 3-6”, 4-8” type events

[UnitedWx]

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1989 is so glaring on that.  I had a job over that winter semester break working at a fish hatchery in Nashua, tagging salmon fry.  That was fun

We had several houses to rough wire, two of them in Riverton. We had days we couldn't pull romex because it would crack. One of my MOST miserable times at work ever

[dendrite]

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas.

If you like 60s.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas.

If you like 60s.

Might be able to go 70F if we pump that ridge enough

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas.

If you like 60s.

Nice pack destroyer for NNE on the Friday prior too. Let’s do it 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Something consistent across most guidance is you can probably close the shades for a bit when this weekend doesn’t produce. 
 

most are consistent in offering a few cutters leading up to Christmas

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be able to go 70F if we pump that ridge enough

588dm up to SNE. lol

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas.

If you like 60s.

No one's askin' but ... I do.

My 'druthers spectrum' changed as I've aged.   I only like winter now if it is cyclonic and interesting.   

This is not that.   

No use for just cold at any time of year. Now, unless it serves something interesting? that's different. But making it un-fun to be outside, as it's only and singular achievement is a rotten horrible piece of shit winter.   Proooobably?  yeah, I'm not here after retirement - b'bye.  But for the time being, if it's not going to be interestingly stormy, I just rather we blow torch it all away

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

588dm up to SNE. lol

Holy shit.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Holy shit.

Let’s get the Mansfield stake to zero and melt all the snow mobile trails to Quebec.

[ORH_wxman]

[weatherwiz]

I was hoping to see some CAPE modeled 

[kazimirkai]

Probably will be a warm one this year but I don't expect that we'll see the worst of it  

[forkyfork]

haha, the pacific is too cooked for the coastal northeast to ever get a good winter again

[Brewbeer]

don't you live in the coastal northeast ?

[Great Snow 1717]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's the thing too...there are way too many products out there (which are not even NCEP products, just derived products from 3rd party vendors) which everyone flocks too and leads to unnecessary hype and unrealistic expectations. This includes snow maps, precipitation type maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, etc. If snow maps were never created, probably 85% of extended storms would garner little interest outside of the, "Oh look the GFS has an HECS at D10". Now, folks see a 8 day 24 HR snow map which 20-30 inches and all of a sudden, "there's a real threat". Same goes with severe...so many events in the midwest now are labeled with having potential to produce numerous tornadoes and strong/violent tornadoes because STP is forecast to be 5 or SCP is forecast to be 20. 

..sort of like with the baseball statgeeks, a lot more information is available which has made everyone into an "expert"despite the lack of training. There is  such a thing as information overload as you know. Someone such as yourself knows which weather information to pay attention to and which information to ignore.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

don't you live in the coastal northeast ?

He enjoys warmth if it isn't cold and snowy

[Great Snow 1717]

My Christmas postcard to Ray...it should arrive by Friday!