December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z HRRR went wild with ice here.. even half would be fun .. GFS also came in colder at 12z 

Just keep the rain cold enough so the pack stays here. Y’all up there should get some good icing 

[Modfan2]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR likes ice BDL

Got to think one of these times these icing events will pan out; this makes sense

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s cocky too. He’s gone after me for a few things and I just LOL’d.

He's had a rough year.

[Damage In Tolland]

WWA out for ice 

[wxeyeNH]

I'm starting to get worried about quite an ice storm in parts of New England tomorrow night and Monday.  I have not looked at other models but QPF seems to increase up here each run with over 1" liquid.  Almost all freezing rain.  I'm not sure how accurate these Weather bell clown maps are for ZR but .50 to 1.00 of ice would cause quite a bit of damage and CAD always rules.  Even a brief few hours of above freezing would not melt all that ice before high winds and cold returns.  Snowstorms get all the attention, but ice storms are brutal, especially for me on top of a hill with only one way out. 

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WWA out for ice 

I just posted about this.  I have to look up to see what the parameters are for an Ice Storm Warning to be issued for parts of New England

[WxWatcher007]

Might get some warnings up here.

[SJonesWX]

I am not interested in getting >0.75” of freezing rain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I just posted about this.  I have to look up to see what the parameters are for an Ice Storm Warning to be issued for parts of New England

You guys up in NNE should get some good icing . You being up on a hilltop may help as the valleys lock in the cold.  I’m not that familiar with your topography and how these situations work there  , but around here with in situ CAD valleys get the longest icing . Dendy I’m sure can assist .

[wxeyeNH]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You guys up in NNE should get some good icing . You being up on a hilltop may help as the valleys lock in the cold.  I’m not that familiar with your topography and how these situations work there  , but around here with in situ CAD valleys get the longest icing . Dendy I’m sure can assist .

We got slammed in 1998 and I think in 2008.   Lake level down below is 590 feet.  I'm at 1100 but only a dirt road one way up here in winter.  Our town only has 1000 people and the highway dept just sent out a notice that our sander broke but the plow truck is fine.  That won't help me.

[kdxken]

Wintry morning. Suns out now. 

 

[Kitz Craver]

I can hope the valley cold is tougher to scour out than modeled. But once that warm push takes over it’s like a hairdryer set on hot just nuking everything. It’s a shame, my local ski hill looks like Jay Peak right now, lol.

[ma blizzard]

not enough QPF for ice storm warnings and we aren’t advecting in colder temps / lower dews so its more of an in situ icing with a slow climb to 32 

sure it will be icy in NNE but think it will fall short of being that destructive 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

We got slammed in 1998 and I think in 2008.   Lake level down below is 590 feet.  I'm at 1100 but only a dirt road one way up here in winter.  Our town only has 1000 people and the highway dept just sent out a notice that our sander broke but the plow truck is fine.  That won't help me.

We had a very localized icestorm here two winters ago where literally the two hilltops in town near or over 1k had under .50 accretion but the next morning big winds hit with 50-60mph gusts and all hell broke loose. The rest of the town had zero ice. Every house in the neighborhood lost at least one tree or had large limbs down, of course I was in heaven but that’s how I’m programmed . Big winds on thickly iced trees is wild . 
 

https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#7PlJaSM

https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#mbAc3Hu

https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#WFHuic1

https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#oVK4yun

https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#OTESvFN

[wx2fish]

9 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

not enough QPF for ice storm warnings and we aren’t advecting in colder temps / lower dews so its more of an in situ icing with a slow climb to 32 

sure it will be icy in NNE but think it will fall short of being that destructive 

Agree. There were some runs with more of a meso low in the Gulf of Maine, but thats trended northward and slower to develop

[dendrite]

Yeah I agree with both of you. I think Gene may get more prolonged icing than most given his elevation up at Newfound, but this won’t be anything historical. I doubt there’s much accretion after early/mid Monday morning so 1/3-1/2” QPF won’t be a big deal outage/damage wise…although the Monday AM commute will probably be a disaster.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I agree with both of you. I think Gene may get more prolonged icing than most given his elevation up at Newfound, but this won’t be anything historical. I doubt there’s much accretion after early/mid Monday morning so 1/3-1/2” QPF won’t be a big deal outage/damage wise…although the Monday AM commute will probably be a disaster.

93 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

When was the last time that far south areas like PVD experienced a significant ice storm? From what I can find the last one was 1973. Based on the problems that they cause I'm not sure I'd want to see another one, I'm just surprised that the return rate for ice storms is lower than the return rate for hurricanes.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

93 

You know it’s comin

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

I am not interested in getting >0.75” of freezing rain. 

You must be mistaken?  DIT says everyone is down with damaging ice events. 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

12z HRRR went wild with ice here.. even half would be fun .. GFS also came in colder at 12z 

Oh hell nah. Pass.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Oh hell nah. Pass.

Those are typically overdone by a ton

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s cocky too. He’s gone after me for a few things and I just LOL’d.

Definitely more Tool than any of the tools in my garage 

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Those are typically overdone by a ton

yeah thats a straight rip and read of how much QPF falls as rain with temps below 32, not how much will actually accrete 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Confused and disagreeing.   Let’s see how much ice acretes. 

[dryslot]

This is manageable, WWA are up for a mixed bag.

[jbenedet]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I agree with both of you. I think Gene may get more prolonged icing than most given his elevation up at Newfound, but this won’t be anything historical. I doubt there’s much accretion after early/mid Monday morning so 1/3-1/2” QPF won’t be a big deal outage/damage wise…although the Monday AM commute will probably be a disaster.

I think the sig icing risk is confined to the valleys of NNE. Atmosphere is warm just above the surface…

[TheMainer]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is manageable, WWA are up for a mixed bag.

I'm hoping for 3-5 inches of snow/sleet before the flip to freezing rain and we'd be mint. However I think it's going to be more like 1-2

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

I'm hoping for 3-5 inches of snow/sleet before the flip to freezing rain and we'd be mint. However I think it's going to be more like 1-2

That warm nose progresses north pretty quickly so yeah, Maybe 1-3" or so for you, Maybe 1" here.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is manageable, WWA are up for a mixed bag.

Looks good. Liking the 0.25 contour cutting through DAW. Another case where Rochester has a lot more icing risk than my hood just 10 miles SE.

I could see DAW getting 0.25” but my backyard getting less than 0.1”. 

We’ve had a number of events with very favorable atmospheric icing conditions but a degree or less saves us from disaster. Not the case just 5 miles to my northwest…