December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

.50" won't do squat to the pack, The temps and dews will do some damage though but its short lived, Clubs will be out panning and rolling the trails after but the best thing is for folks to stay off of them until they set back up.

Bring the rain. The drought is still pretty bad up here and we’ve had nothing soak in recently. 

[Torch Tiger]

it's wild how warm 40's feel after the very cold month or so.

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

it's wild how warm 40's feel after the very cold month or so.

Thought the same last night when it was 29°.

[ineedsnow]

Can we just get this 948mb low to verify

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS back to saving Christmas 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS back to saving Christmas 

Tuesday snow

[CoastalWx]

Got to watch Christmas Day too. Models are waffling on timing. 

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile, could really blow tomorrow.

[SouthCoastMA]

AIGFS now on TT

looked a bit snowier than the 6z GFS overall

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile, could really blow tomorrow.

Pretty damn excited 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty damn excited 

If there is a lot of rain then no big deal. But it’s a real strong LLJ during daytime.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

AIGFS now on TT

looked a bit snowier than the 6z GFS overall

That was a decent run. But I have no idea how good it is.

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty damn excited 

Man... I never seen someone love the wind so much!! let it blow ...

[ORH_wxman]

Euro skynet was decent for 12/23 too. Hopefully we can get that one to give us a couple inches. 

[brooklynwx99]

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

[Lava Rock]

This was Islanders Pond, VT yesterday. You don’t have to watch the entire video lol. Very nice for opening day. And I had to work 
 

All of Pittsburgh trails are open

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[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

You'd need a lot of work still for the northeast to benefit. Maybe clippers and some SWFEs for now 

[moneypitmike]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

That image screams for this.

 

[alex]

Yikes, current P&C has about 1.5” of rain for tomorrow. Keeps going up

[moneypitmike]

Enjoy the last day of snow today.  There's still about 4"......bare lawn tomorrow afternoon.  At least we have this.

 

Friday

Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then rain likely. High near 56. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, alex said:

Yikes, current P&C has about 1.5” of rain for tomorrow. Keeps going up

That will be one thick pack of ice when it refreezes.

[Hazey]

Holiday period is looking exciting. Lots of s/w’s and clippers in the flow and repeating tracks. Someone might get a 1 2 punch within short order. LFG!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely not a stable look for sure, but it’s darn persistent on guidance in some shape or form.

It’s just bizarre to me. I can’t recall anything like it. Of course we can’t get a nice deep trough out west and a SE ridge with that look because if we did, I feel like it would be a fun pattern. But God forbid we have something in our favor.  

So what you are saying is “No one’s ever seen anything like it”? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

So what you are saying is “No one’s ever seen anything like it”? 

No, just me ha ha.

[Damage In Tolland]

2-5” type deal Tuesday . That’s our shot

[CoastalWx]

 Christmas Day showers on the euro AI. 

[jbenedet]

23 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Timber

This isn’t what we want for the bulk of New England. Seasonal cold and dry, especially in northern New England. Once this -NAO gets entrenched it could even result in N, to AN in Northern and eastern sections of New England. In a La Niña this is something we should be vigilante against as tendency into January is dry up here.
 

The main takeaway is this will send most storm tracks south. I’d be watching intently in mid Atlantic, down to Virginia.

 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully enough blocking to give BWI a 2’ storm like the 6z gfs has and cirrus for us.

[jbenedet]

The cutter will wipe anywhere that doesn’t fall below freezing tonight.

Probably the usual line cutting through DAW and N ORH to just north of PWM…

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully enough blocking to give BWI a 2’ storm like the 6z gfs has and cirrus for us.

Yea this is kinda where I’m at, especially with peak winter climo a few weeks away. 
 

NYC metro close enough to watch with keen interest…