December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12z Canadian definitely going to be better than 00z

[dryslot]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

They're better off trading some of the surplus of outfielders. I would like to see them get Marte and resign Bregman.

I think this is key.

[Chrisrotary12]

On 12/10/2025 at 9:22 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Might as well just close the shades till January: wide left, wide right, wide right, wide left, wide left. 

Only one showing any hope of changing this outlook is pre-Christmas wanna be grinch.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is a pretty nice look, especially for eastern ma 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z Canadian definitely going to be better than 00z

A lot better. Looks almost like Ukie. Maybe not quite as juicy but pretty close. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot better. Looks almost like Ukie. Maybe not quite as juicy but pretty close. 

I don’t hate it. You could tell pretty early on it was going to be better. If you could just get it to crank a few hours earlier it could end up being a decent event for many 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok pal…I appreciate the optimism. 

The reverse pshyc failed for his area in the 12-2 event... so we're switching things up

[Cold Miser]

46 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Makes perfect sense since they both ended up in the Mid-Atlantic!

This is funny shi.t.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ukie is about how I envision things playing out 

Same, but I need other guidance to get better today, or it's time to bail.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been feeling this one coming .

I can actually agree with this, but don't think it'll be much. You're in a better spot for this if it verifies

[Typhoon Tip]

Still waiting on the Euro myself

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Probably getting 3-4” but she coming. 

[eduggs]

The 12z CMC is the first run I've seen that fully rounds the base in time to spin up the mid/ULL into Nova Scotia. Too late, yes... but closer. The next step would obviously be for it to happen faster and in time to impact EMA instead of Halifax. ... gotta keep pumping heights out ahead of the trof in Ontario/Quebec.

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

This is funny shi.t.

Humor...That's all we've got left...

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ukie was some rain on the cape.............lol

 

That shows exactly why I need to be sure to hold onto Pit2 as long as possible.   The new Pit1 will suck in the winter!

[Typhoon Tip]

This GFS run is a riot

major coastal and a foot for interior, then 590 hgts 5 days later off the EC. 

That's a spring antic man.  Typical on an extended range March chart

[mreaves]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Why? What happened? Wasn't much here to steal. 

Southern VT got 40".  I trailered south for a ride as it was all melting.   From this  to this  in a matter of a couple of days.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Southern VT got 40".  I trailered south for a ride as it was all melting.   From this  to this  in a matter of a couple of days.

We just went over this a week or so back, I saw pics with folks that had decent pack, It was ugly.

[moneypitmike]

All I know is that while we've got a few inches on the ground now, we are in need of a refresher.  It's certainly not looking fresh as this point!

[ariof]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He wouldn't be able to get it all if that verified lol

How quickly you forget Grinch 2020.

18-36 across CNE/NNE on the 15th to 17th, followed by a cold week.

Then 2" RA at 55+ wiped it all out (and with the winds and dews even some manmade trails were scoured off). These are all snow depths; actual accumulation before settling was often higher.

Woodstock Vt: 18"-->0"
RUT: 18" --> 0"
Peru, Vt: 31" --> 4"
CON: 21" --> 2"
GYX: 11" --> 0"
Poland, Maine: 18" --> 0"
PWM: 13" --> 0"
Bradford, NH: 19" --> 3"
Sandwich, NH: 16" --> 0"
EEN: 18" --> 0"
Newport, NH: 25" --> 2"
 

[Hazey]

There is an enough variability in the long range not to worry about Christmas atm. As far as Sun/Mon system goes, as a few of us have said…Stay the course.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ariof said:

How quickly you forget Grinch 2020.

18-36 across CNE/NNE on the 15th to 17th, followed by a cold week.

Then 2" RA at 55+ wiped it all out (and with the winds and dews even some manmade trails were scoured off). These are all snow depths; actual accumulation before settling was often higher.

Woodstock Vt: 18"-->0"
RUT: 18" --> 0"
Peru, Vt: 31" --> 4"
CON: 21" --> 2"
GYX: 11" --> 0"
Poland, Maine: 18" --> 0"
PWM: 13" --> 0"
Bradford, NH: 19" --> 3"
Sandwich, NH: 16" --> 0"
EEN: 18" --> 0"
Newport, NH: 25" --> 2"
 

If you read above, I didn't forget, But also modeling is not showing a grinch storm to that magnitude if any to even be concerned about at ATT.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

If you read above, I didn't forget, But also modeling is not showing a grinch storm to that magnitude if any. 

Folks jaded. As soon as there’s a hint of a cutter/or any mildness around the 20th, it’s the grinch. Kind of getting out of hand, but that’s how it goes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think this is key.

I think that is a pre-requisitie to getting better...but it's a lateral move.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Folks jaded. As soon as there’s a hint of a cutter/or any mildness around the 20th, it’s the grinch. Kind of getting out of hand, but that’s how it goes. 

Doesn't have to be of that magnitude to be a grinch.

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

All I know is that while we've got a few inches on the ground now, we are in need of a refresher.  It's certainly not looking fresh as this point!

For sure. I was jealous of the cars coming down the hill from Granville this A.M. with a couple fresh inches on them. Just sheer black ice for me at 5:30!

[weathafella]

AI and op euro with a widespread 1-3.  Interesting AI how to keep refreshing it while pushing the grinch away.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro didn’t trend better at 12z. Mostly far SE areas and Cape hit. It has maybe a general 1-2” near and south of pike though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro didn’t trend better at 12z. Mostly far SE areas and Cape hit. It has maybe a general 1-2” near and south of pike though. 

Great, rain and then whiffed to the south before the warm up.

[ORH_wxman]

At least it didn’t revert to 00z but would’ve liked to see another tick improvement from 06z