December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

For DC or SNE?

For ya mutha

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they need to start making hallmark movies where it's 45 and raining on christmas

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged.  I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

[SouthCoastMA]

vort on 12z GFS looks a bit sharper/better tilted at 78h, along with better west coast ridge. It should end up better, considering how suppressed 0z/6z were. 

[backedgeapproaching]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bennington, below 1000'... so she probably won't hit the warning amounts

Gotcha- yea, I don't think they will hit warning there TBH. 

[dryslot]

Going to be a bit better on the 12z GFS then 06z run, Baby steps.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Going to be a bit better on the 12z GFS then 06z run, Baby steps.

GFS back in the fold. Good to see. Euro better not step back. 

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to be a bit better on the 12z GFS then 06z run, Baby steps.

Looks like the closed low digs into the base of the trough much better this run but ultimately, aloft doesn't appear too conducive for sfc low development

[dryslot]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS back in the fold. Good to see. Euro better not step back. 

Still a day out to see more changes, But good to see something positive any ways, Keep it trending north, Sharper looking trough at H5 this run.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like the closed low digs into the base of the trough much better this run but ultimately, aloft doesn't appear too conducive for sfc low development

Went negative a bit late this run as it rounds the base, If you get a bit better ridge out west to start this a bit sooner this could go boom.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dryslot said:

Went negative a bit late this run as it rounds the base, If you get a bit better ridge out west to start this a bit sooner this could go boom.

ehhh its too much of a big if. I mean there has to be some sort of reasoning or some clue to provide evidence that would be possible. 

I think this one is done. Even with a better interaction of the closed low and trough, the profile just scream cyclogenesis and the low-level baroclinic zone is way too far south. By the time diffluence starts developing aloft...its way too late and sfc low doesn't get going until well east. 

Our best shot IMO is getting that baroclinic zone farther north and working with llvl magic. I don't think that ridge in the west is going to have much influence on anything versus just getting a better interaction with the two energies...but that alone isn't or won't be enough. All of this would start to have to occur several hundred miles west.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Since I’m trying to be more glass half full, that gfs run was better than 6z and close to giving some folks some snow 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Since I’m trying to be more glass half full, that gfs run was better than 6z and close to giving some folks some snow 

Don't let them bully you. Speak your mind.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh its too much of a big if. I mean there has to be some sort of reasoning or some clue to provide evidence that would be possible. 

I think this one is done. Even with a better interaction of the closed low and trough, the profile just scream cyclogenesis and the low-level baroclinic zone is way too far south. By the time diffluence starts developing aloft...its way too late and sfc low doesn't get going until well east. 

Our best shot IMO is getting that baroclinic zone farther north and working with llvl magic. I don't think that ridge in the west is going to have much influence on anything versus just getting a better interaction with the two energies...but that alone isn't or won't be enough. All of this would start to have to occur several hundred miles west.

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities.  Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another.  There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities.  Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another.  There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

Agreed. They are closer to the llv baroclinic zone and also more in line with the RR of the jet

[ariof]

15 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Gotcha- yea, I don't think they will hit warning there TBH. 

DDH often has bare ground while four miles away as the crow flies up Route 9 Mitch has feet. Especially when there are lake streamers which lose their juice but then slam into the wall of the Greens. Route 9 between Bennington and Woodford can be ugly!

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Since I’m trying to be more glass half full, that gfs run was better than 6z and close to giving some folks some snow 

Atta boy !

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. They are closer to the llv baroclinic zone and also more in line with the RR of the jet

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum.  I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts  and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility.  In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

[brooklynwx99]

CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian doesn’t look bad. It’s kind of close to getting eastern areas when it really gets going just offshore 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum.  I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts  and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility.  In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

definitely possible...the BL may be a bit torched down that way.

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, ariof said:

DDH often has bare ground while four miles away as the crow flies up Route 9 Mitch has feet. Especially when there are lake streamers which lose their juice but then slam into the wall of the Greens. Route 9 between Bennington and Woodford can be ugly!

Its a fun drive

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they need to start making hallmark movies where it's 45 and raining on christmas

8hrs of Christmas rain. Enjoy. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented

The CMC was actually pretty close to getting eastern areas with heavier stuff 

[dendrite]

25.2° -SN

Working on another tenth. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

25.2° -SN

Working on another tenth. 

Nickels and dimes?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nickels and dimes?

Reminting pennies

[ariof]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Its a fun drive

You could say that.

Or a fun "oh a TT jackknifed now it's a fun sit for four hours while they reopen the road"

[tamarack]

51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged.  I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

Or when it's snowing despite the sharp shadows and hardwood trees fully green.  

Light snow here.  We should be mostly snow, maybe a few pingers at worst.  GYX says 3-5 plus a bit more after dark.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fantasy range appears headed for the same CC apocalypse  lol