December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Dark Star]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

then what explains the salty taste other folks are talking about if its treated ?

The treatment process doesn't remove chlorides, etc.  Your best source of water is from underground aquifers, in which the soils, rocks and minerals work as a natural filtration system.  Unless of course a toxic waste site has leached into it, or somebody's septic system leaked...

[[email protected]]

This December is so overrated! Potentially, no sub 20 lows in the city with no snow! Plus, it's looking like we will have our annual Christmas week tourch with it raining on New Years Eve again!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

52 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

It’s impossible to predict anything with confidence past 5 days in this fast flowed pattern………………….

You can predict with 100% confidence the Christmas week warmth. You can take that to the bank. 

[JustinRP37]

This is honestly the longest I have held onto an inch of snow since I moved up here. It has been great and cold all week. Stringing up the outdoor lights today! I honestly don't know how people don't like winter, especially on a day like today. The chill feels great!

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

BN december in a nina means BN winter. On to spring.

Good. Rest of your posts will disappear. See ya in march. 
 

 

fyi he was talking about the temps. 

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

It’s impossible to predict anything with confidence past 5 days in this fast flowed pattern………………….

That ellipsis is not long enough to get your point across. It needs to be at least double the length. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

You can predict with 100% confidence the Christmas week warmth. You can take that to the bank. 

It snowed last year

[MANDA]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

are you talking about your area in Northwest NJ or the entire NYC metro from Ocean County up to Ulster County in NY  ?

Pretty much entire NYC metro area.  Colder and dry looks to dominate next 7-10 days at least and that takes us to about 12/17.

Beyond 12/17 through perhaps the end of the month I'd lean towards that period averaging colder than normal to at worst normal...along the lines of -2 to +.5 as an early call for 12/16 to 12/31.  Below normal precipitation as well I think.

[sussexcountyobs]

3 hours ago, [email protected] said:

This December is so overrated! Potentially, no sub 20 lows in the city with no snow! Plus, it's looking like we will have our annual Christmas week tourch with it raining on New Years Eve again!

That is amazing to know that! Thanks. Where can one buy a crystal ball like you have?

[lee59]

Winter starting early for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes area and a good portion of the northeast. Meanwhile our immediate area can't buy snow.

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Winter starting early for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes area and a good portion of the northeast. Meanwhile our immediate area can't buy snow.

The worst part is that in our ever warming climate it is increasingly difficult to have a colder than an average month, especially during the winter. However, over the past few years every time we have a colder than average month it is mainly cold and dry, and we barely have any snow in this region. Our bad luck just won’t run out.

[North and West]

this month is toast beyond a lucky one off for NYC. Sad for a BN Dec. 
Enjoy the rain Thursday.

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[North and West]

BN december in a nina means BN winter. On to spring.

That’s a later date than usual to give up. We’ve been giving up lately more often in November in recent times.


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[North and West]

BN december in a nina means BN winter. On to spring.

That’s a later date than usual to give up. We’ve been giving up lately more often in November in recent times.


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[nycwinter]

la nina will end sometime in january and go neutral..

[sussexcountyobs]

LOL! So funny. I was going to post yesterday that if NYC proper didn't receive any measurable snow by Dec. 20th, the comments of winter canceled,  put a fork in it, on to spring, etc, etc., would appear. I was wrong. Only took to Dec. 7th. Too funny.. 

[North and West]

LOL! So funny. I was going to post yesterday that if NYC proper didn't receive any measurable snow by Dec. 20th, the comments of winter canceled,  put a fork in it, on to spring, etc, etc., would appear. I was wrong. Only took to Dec. 7th. Too funny.. 

I just wish we could all enjoy Christmas first.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I just wish we could all enjoy Christmas first.


.

Right? I hear ya. What is the average high for Central Park for Dec. 7th? 

[donsutherland1]

A fresh surge of cold air will arrive tonight. Tomorrow will likely see subfreezing temperatures across much of the region and Tuesday morning could rival or even surpass the cold of December 5th at some locations.

The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000).

The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were:

1. 30.6°, 2002
2. 32.2°, 2003
3. 32.4°, 2000
4. 33.1°, 2005
5. 33.4°, 2007

All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

The WPO is forecast to become strongly negative beyond December 10th. That would likely contribute to the December 10-20 period also being colder to perhaps much colder than normal overall.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -7.11 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.202 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.0° (5.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

can't make this up #Snowhole

[SHELEG]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can't make this up #Snowhole

Was close to something nice for NYC on the 15th.

[sussexcountyobs]

46 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Was close to something nice for NYC on the 15th.

Yup. Swing and a miss. Oh well. Maybe the 22nd will produce?

[psv88]

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah - the 186 hour 18Z GFS snow maps are always accurate ,,,,,,,,,,

12z v 18z makes no difference. Stop with this nonsense. 

[qg_omega]

It’s a great pattern for cold and also a terrible pattern for snow outside of the lakes

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s a great pattern for cold and also a terrible pattern for snow outside of the lakes

Yes which is why I said it’s very similar to last year. Is it El Niño yet?

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That is amazing to know that! Thanks. Where can one buy a crystal ball like you have?

Forget the crystal ball.  You can make a hat out of the aluminum foil wrap in your drawer...

[coastalplainsnowman]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It snowed last year

I'm sure you're right, I don't remember exactly.  But it's also true that for Farmingdale, NY there's been at least one 54+ day - a super mild, holiday-spirit crushing day - in the week leading up to Christmas every year for the last 14 years, including last year, when it was 58.  The average of the highest temperature reached in the week leading up to Christmas Day since 2011 is 58.64.  The median is 58.5. 

Every year I hope it won't happen, but that hasn't seemed to help.

[qg_omega]

46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes which is why I said it’s very similar to last year. Is it El Niño yet?

Don’t think El Niño or La Niña matters really, hey we got the elusive SSWE and MJO phase 8 and we have zero threats on the horizon

[SACRUS]

 

Chicago has been off to a quick start:  "Chicago picked up another 4.8" of #snow ..... with their season to date total now at 17.1" vs. the average of 3.5".  This is the fastest start in 47 years and just shy of what fell all of last season: 17.6"."

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, North and West said:

That’s a later date than usual to give up. We’ve been giving up lately more often in November in recent times.


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February 2006 would like to have a word...