November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Overnight Euro ENS continue to cool for December. 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

https://twitter.com/IsaacWxObserver/status/1990846704552153573?s=20

EDIT: for some reason link isn't embedding

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro seems to try and tee something up for the mountain folks Thanksgiving weekend?

[Maestrobjwa]

On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

Not sure of the similarities to now, but...I remember a lot of SE ridge can kicks last year!

[WxUSAF]

If we can keep this trend going into winter of holding back warmth in the Plains and getting Canadian air into our area and the northeast, and that’s a big if, then that should support more snow-to-rain/mix and CAD events. But this trend has been durable for almost 4 months now. Seeing it manifest again with next week (after we saw it for this week earlier).

[Herb@MAWS]

General theme appears to be a bit above normal T’giving period for us and then below normal period getting into early December. We may be near southern edge of the below average colder temps approaching 2nd week of December while northern states/New England get chilled. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

Yes. I always have a 3 week supply of hopium. If you run out, I can get you some. I think there is a good consensus that we'll have a decently cold December. Mets seem excited. 

[jayyy]

Yes. I always have a 3 week supply of hopium. If you run out, I can get you some. I think there is a good consensus that we'll have a decently cold December. Mets seem excited. 

2-3 weeks of cold in December seems pretty locked in at this point. The million dollar question: is it cold / dry or do we some chances?

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

I'll be more excited if I start seeing best December since 2013.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

 

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away

Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

That last week of December looks mint. 

This feels like Groundhogs Day. 

[cbmclean]

Lest anyone be in doubt that we are still in a -----PDO Lan Nina basestate take a look at the MJO forecast.  It actually did a backwards propagation (often forecasted rarely occurring) in phase 5 and looks poised to do it again in phase 6.  Convection REALLY likes to be in Maritime Continent/E Pac.

[Daniel Boone]

22 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Lest anyone be in doubt that we are still in a -----PDO Lan Nina basestate take a look at the MJO forecast.  It actually did a backwards propagation (often forecasted rarely occurring) in phase 5 and looks poised to do it again in phase 6.  Convection REALLY likes to be in Maritime Continent/E Pac.

Models still have it progressing to Ph. 7 by the 1st and crawling through 7. 

[WEATHER53]

See talk has now drifted to December instead of Thanksgiving with even some later patter.  Can’t duck our heads and just sluff  off the start of the infamous “delayed but” potential pattern 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

See talk has now drifted to December instead of Thanksgiving with even some later patter.  Can’t duck our heads and just sluff  off the start of the infamous “delayed but” potential pattern 

I don’t think anyone would’ve bet any sort of money on November snow lol.

I’ll concur insofar as if we have another hyped December pattern only to get shut out I’m gonna make a New Years’ resolution to never care about December again. Might just not be able to snow here anymore til January 

[Paleocene]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

See talk has now drifted to December instead of Thanksgiving with even some later patter.  Can’t duck our heads and just sluff  off the start of the infamous “delayed but” potential pattern 

After the last couple years, I'm not believing any epic pattern 10+ days out stuff until its slapping me in the face with stinging cold snow.

[WxUSAF]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I don’t think anyone would’ve bet any sort of money on November snow lol.

I’ll concur insofar as if we have another hyped December pattern only to get shut out I’m gonna make a New Years’ resolution to never care about December again. Might just not be able to snow here anymore til January 

Pattern changes are often rushed on guidance. That’s just typical? Especially -EPO driven changes. I have been posting (along with lots of better Mets) that guidance has been overdoing mid-long range warmth for us for months now. And I personally don’t want our peak pattern on December 1. Our average high is like 52 still! I’m vey good with Thanksgiving through December 10-15 being a transitional period that builds up cold air and snowcover in our source regions. 

[brooklynwx99]

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec

initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO

trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada

second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec

initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO

trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada

second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

I realize you are propagating out past this, but looking at the raw data presented here, I'll be damned if the Southwest US oriented trof doesn't seem like a recurring background state past several years. 

[Alfoman]

One of the biggest caveats to the first week or two of December is the SE Ridge setting up as the cold slowly propagates eastward. While I do think it gets beat down as we head through the month, would likely hinder our chances for a bit. 

Hoping for a repeat of last year with the ridge amplification being grossly overstated in the long range routinely.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Pattern changes are often rushed on guidance. That’s just typical? Especially -EPO driven changes. I have been posting (along with lots of better Mets) that guidance has been overdoing mid-long range warmth for us for months now. And I personally don’t want our peak pattern on December 1. Our average high is like 52 still! I’m vey good with Thanksgiving through December 10-15 being a transitional period that builds up cold air and snowcover in our source regions. 

After Dec 15 is when I'll start getting excited. Anything before that is gravy.

[winter_warlock]

 Interesting look.... FWIW. Something to maybe watch 10 days out...