November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Overnight Euro ENS continue to cool for December. 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

https://twitter.com/IsaacWxObserver/status/1990846704552153573?s=20

EDIT: for some reason link isn't embedding

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro seems to try and tee something up for the mountain folks Thanksgiving weekend?

[Maestrobjwa]

On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

Not sure of the similarities to now, but...I remember a lot of SE ridge can kicks last year!

[WxUSAF]

If we can keep this trend going into winter of holding back warmth in the Plains and getting Canadian air into our area and the northeast, and that’s a big if, then that should support more snow-to-rain/mix and CAD events. But this trend has been durable for almost 4 months now. Seeing it manifest again with next week (after we saw it for this week earlier).

[Herb@MAWS]

General theme appears to be a bit above normal T’giving period for us and then below normal period getting into early December. We may be near southern edge of the below average colder temps approaching 2nd week of December while northern states/New England get chilled. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

Yes. I always have a 3 week supply of hopium. If you run out, I can get you some. I think there is a good consensus that we'll have a decently cold December. Mets seem excited. 

[jayyy]

Yes. I always have a 3 week supply of hopium. If you run out, I can get you some. I think there is a good consensus that we'll have a decently cold December. Mets seem excited. 

2-3 weeks of cold in December seems pretty locked in at this point. The million dollar question: is it cold / dry or do we some chances?

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

I'll be more excited if I start seeing best December since 2013.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

 

 

 

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away

Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

That last week of December looks mint. 

This feels like Groundhogs Day.