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November Medium/Long Range Discussion


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On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

https://twitter.com/IsaacWxObserver/status/1990846704552153573?s=20

EDIT: for some reason link isn't embedding

 

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On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

IMG_0424.jpeg

IMG_0425.jpeg

Not sure of the similarities to now, but...I remember a lot of SE ridge can kicks last year!

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If we can keep this trend going into winter of holding back warmth in the Plains and getting Canadian air into our area and the northeast, and that’s a big if, then that should support more snow-to-rain/mix and CAD events. But this trend has been durable for almost 4 months now. Seeing it manifest again with next week (after we saw it for this week earlier).

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Yes. I always have a 3 week supply of hopium. If you run out, I can get you some. I think there is a good consensus that we'll have a decently cold December. Mets seem excited. 

2-3 weeks of cold in December seems pretty locked in at this point. The million dollar question: is it cold / dry or do we some chances?
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