November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

AO forecasts continue more negative, now at - 3 SD 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

I remember the winter of '76-'77 very well ... I was 25 at the time and living in the D.C. area. It was very cold for a lot more than just one month. 

 

Unreal pictures from back then with people well out into the bay and cars on the ice at mouth of south river into the bay.  You could not tell where the land ended and the ice began 

it did moderate in Feb 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts.  But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts.  But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree). 

Subseasonal cycle? You mean the progression, ie mild January?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Subseasonal cycle? You mean the progression, ie mild January?

Yes

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes

Largely based on how I think that the stratosphere will behave....PV is probably going to rebound quickly by the new year given that we are likely to have a reflection event mid January, the precursor pattern for which is a Pacific trough....implies Arctic low and Pacific trough for early January.  Then SSW in February for a colder finish. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Largely based on how I think that the stratosphere will behave....PV is probably going to rebound quickly by the new year given that we are likely to have a reflection event mid January, the precursor pattern for which is a Pacific trough....implies Arctic low and Pacific trough for early January.  Then SSW in February for a colder finish. 

I certainly hope we get some period of productivity in January. A lot of the Ninas during the last ~10 years have had good January periods. I’m not enthusiastic on snowfall if our best patterns are early December and March. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Doug Kammerer thinks January will be coldest month relative to normal. What is he seeing? 

[jrodd321]

On 11/8/2025 at 9:59 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

We need a fast start to winter man. Hoping this a comes true. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Doug Kammerer thinks January will be coldest month relative to normal. What is he seeing? 

https://8-ball-magic.com/index.php#anchor

[Maestrobjwa]

Snow flurries in Atlanta today  It's just flurries but given the SOB (south of Baltimore) storm track that has persisted for most of the decade, it's still annoying nonetheless.

[mappy]

FWIW 

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Snow flurries in Atlanta today  It's just flurries but given the SOB (south of Baltimore) storm track that has persisted for most of the decade, it's still annoying nonetheless.

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

[frd]

Commodity Wx Group  @commoditywx

 

 

Models debating speed of -EPO arrival with American fastest and European slowest; both have exhibited competitive skill in past 30 days, but AIFS ensemble middle ground may be best answer.

 

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

I absolutely agree with this. Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after.

I'm not at all worried about losing the big ones. Just that they might be spaced out in larger intervals instead of every 3-7 years between 1979 and 2016.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

It must be an extra good day when your perspective is sunnier than mine, lol I'm just tired of seeing people in the south get snow and remaining in the screw zone in my area. It's gotta break one of these days

[JenkinsJinkies]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after

Actually their snow came from a different mechanism than what causes our big snows. I actually asked PSU about it when it happened and he said it actually could be possible for the Gulf Coast to score the way they did while at the same time we permanently lose big snows. Now he does not believe we've reached the point where the once a decade big snow storm is a thing of the past but snowfall is still in an overall decline due to a loss of the smaller marginal events.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Doug Kammerer thinks January will be coldest month relative to normal. What is he seeing? 

He's a snow weenie. He went big a few years ago and it was the kiss of death.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I absolutely agree with this. Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after.

I'm not at all worried about losing the big ones. Just that they might be spaced out in larger intervals instead of every 3-7 years between 1979 and 2016.

For even the older cronies here, there was a significant lack of big snows prior to 1979. It seems to me that they’ve became more common, or at least less rare, since then. 

Maybe we’ve gotten a little spoiled because they had been happening somewhat regularly right up to 2016.

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

For even the older cronies here, there was a significant lack of big snows prior to 1979. It seems to me that they’ve became more common, or at least less rare, since then. 

Maybe we’ve gotten a little spoiled because they had been happening somewhat regularly right up to 2016.

100%. While there was copious cold during the 70s, big storms were mostly absent until 79. Otoh, the 60s mostly rocked. The 80s were solid but things quieted down after the Vet day storm. The 90s struggled and if 95-96 didn't happen then it would have been a lost decade for the most part. 2000-16 was really good for bigger storms but not without a few epic bust storms and some real gut punch seasons. The period after the Jan 2011 storm thru Mar 2013 was God awful but it was just a few years even though it felt like a century lol. Then 13-16 happened... 

2017 thru 2024 was been ho hum but is it that uncommon to have a period like that? Not really when you think about it. Last year was a real winter even if it was sub climo snow. You could say last winter was similar to the bulk of the 70s. 

Our winters are streaky good and bad. Been that way since I was born. A hot streak of bigger storms is coming and based on the last 8 years or so, prob sooner than later. Wx around the world has been more extreme in general and there is no doubt in my mind that a bigger storm than Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 is coming here at some point. 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I absolutely agree with this. Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after.

I'm not at all worried about losing the big ones. Just that they might be spaced out in larger intervals instead of every 3-7 years between 1979 and 2016.

 

Plus there'll probably be potential for 3'+ storms with the warming climate.

[stormy]

I find it quite unusual for Davis to report 13 inches of snow when Snowshoe reports only 6 inches since Monday.

[Weather Will]

Latest extended EPS extended MJO.  Phase 7 to 8 in December would be nice...

[TSG]

37 minutes ago, stormy said:

I find it quite unusual for Davis to report 13 inches of snow when Snowshoe reports only 6 inches since Monday.

I'd imagine it's simply random chance of where the heaviest bands set up coming off the lakes. Some areas had much higher rates than others. @SnowenOutTherewas hiking some ridges in WV yesterday and reported he saw 1-2in in one spot and 3-4in 10 miles away at another

[WxUSAF]

39/50 is impressive.

 

[stormy]

41 minutes ago, TSG said:

I'd imagine it's simply random chance of where the heaviest bands set up coming off the lakes. Some areas had much higher rates than others. @SnowenOutTherewas hiking some ridges in WV yesterday and reported he saw 1-2in in one spot and 3-4in 10 miles away at another

Usually Snowshoe being 1300 ft. higher than Davis is a favored spot. Quinwood 20 miles west/southwest  and 2000 ft. lower than Snowshoe's 6 inches  reported 9 inches. Weird.    Upslope didn't work exactly right this time around.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

39/50 is impressive.

Yes that's definitely impressive. I was skeptical that a November SSWE was going to be a head fake, but it's becoming more evident the Euro and it's ensembles might be onto something here. At the very least, I'm glad that we aren't looking at some compact polar vortex that just locks up all winter.