November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

AO forecasts continue more negative, now at - 3 SD 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

I remember the winter of '76-'77 very well ... I was 25 at the time and living in the D.C. area. It was very cold for a lot more than just one month. 

 

Unreal pictures from back then with people well out into the bay and cars on the ice at mouth of south river into the bay.  You could not tell where the land ended and the ice began 

it did moderate in Feb 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts.  But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts.  But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree). 

Subseasonal cycle? You mean the progression, ie mild January?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Subseasonal cycle? You mean the progression, ie mild January?

Yes

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes

Largely based on how I think that the stratosphere will behave....PV is probably going to rebound quickly by the new year given that we are likely to have a reflection event mid January, the precursor pattern for which is a Pacific trough....implies Arctic low and Pacific trough for early January.  Then SSW in February for a colder finish. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Largely based on how I think that the stratosphere will behave....PV is probably going to rebound quickly by the new year given that we are likely to have a reflection event mid January, the precursor pattern for which is a Pacific trough....implies Arctic low and Pacific trough for early January.  Then SSW in February for a colder finish. 

I certainly hope we get some period of productivity in January. A lot of the Ninas during the last ~10 years have had good January periods. I’m not enthusiastic on snowfall if our best patterns are early December and March.