November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Dark Star]

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.  

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.  

Who?

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Who?

 

[mgerb]

Just now, psv88 said:

Who?

Jeff Berardelli is who he meant. E.g., https://www.facebook.com/JeffBerardelli/

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Jeff Berardelli is who he meant. E.g., https://www.facebook.com/JeffBerardelli/

Just looked. I guess he missed his post yesterday about the mini heat wave about to hit the southern portion of the country. 

[IrishRob17]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Who?

I forget when Jeff moved to Florida but when he was still on WCBS here he would occasionally post on here, or maybe it was on Eastern before this one.

[WxWatcher007]

On 11/17/2025 at 9:51 AM, eduggs said:

I'm not one to argue that climate change isn't having an impact. On the contrary, I believe the regional climate has warmed so significantly that its effects have clearly bled into observable weather statistics.

But just to play devil's advocate regarding Saranac Lake this year... anecdotally it has been a windy, cloudy November up there. The coldest airmasses have not been accompanied by calm, dry conditions. I suspect that somewhat unfavorable conditions for radiational cooling in the Adirondacks thus far this fall are superimposed on a relatively warm background.

I don’t post here often, but happened to stumble upon this just now. Agree with what you said—it has been cloudy and windy (and snowy) with the coldest air masses—not great for rad cooling. I also agree with Bluewave on how warm Canada has been generally in recent years. If you look at most recent Decembers, with the exception of last year they have been headed in a warmer direction. 

The locals here talk about how fast a start it has been with snow, but we haven’t had any truly cold nights relative to what the area can get (not that I’m a local, I’m new to the area).

It’s been a cold month overall however. The airport is -3.3° as of 11/17. Normal hi/lo for today is 41/21. In the village we had a low today of 24…but we’re currently at 27° and will struggle to hit freezing again.

 

[Dark Star]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I forget when Jeff moved to Florida but when he was still on WCBS here he would occasionally post on here, or maybe it was on Eastern before this one.

I think on Eastern.  Jeff would have post snow storm analysis.  What went wrong, or right, with most major winter storms.  It was a great learning tool.  He used to state, "The devil is in the details", meaning there are clues as to the outcome of each winter storm.  It is a matter of choosing the correct clues.

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

I think on Eastern.  Jeff would have post snow storm analysis.  What went wrong, or right, with most major winter storms.  It was a great learning tool.  He used to state, "The devil is in the details", meaning there are clues as to the outcome of each winter storm.  It is a matter of choosing the correct clues.

So it is that long ago. It was a bummer when he moved, he always had very informative posts, as you recall as well.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.  

Weeklies agree with that . Maybe just maybe we will have a nice winter.

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t post here often, but happened to stumble upon this just now. Agree with what you said—it has been cloudy and windy (and snowy) with the coldest air masses—not great for rad cooling. I also agree with Bluewave on how warm Canada has been generally in recent years. If you look at most recent Decembers, with the exception of last year they have been headed in a warmer direction. 

The locals here talk about how fast a start it has been with snow, but we haven’t had any truly cold nights relative to what the area can get (not that I’m a local, I’m new to the area).

It’s been a cold month overall however. The airport is -3.3° as of 11/17. Normal hi/lo for today is 41/21. In the village we had a low today of 24…but we’re currently at 27° and will struggle to hit freezing again.

 

No doubt it’s been a chilly month so far. Even here we’re struggling to get past 45. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No doubt it’s been a chilly month so far. Even here we’re struggling to get past 45. 

Yes near average

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.  

That would just bring cold and dry to us-forcing the storm track well south.  

[SnowGoose69]

Good news perhaps with regards to the RRFS....it did a spectacular job today on ptypes in  Michigan and seems to have a good handle here tomorrow AM on the R/S line.  With the NAM being discontinued sometime in 2026 it was really important that the RRFS performed well on winter precip events given the HRRR and GFS are relatively awful usually being too cold aloft and the HRRR sometimes in the BL too.   The RRFS not having a MOS product though will continue to be a problem.

[eduggs]

I generally hate posting fantasy model snow maps, but I couldn't resist this one. Here's the 12z HRRR. This is far outside the inter-model spread, so extremely unlikely. It's certainly not close to what I expect to play out. But it made me smile to see anyway. The HRRR has been backing off every cycle since.

[dmillz25]

55 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yes near average

Average high is 53…

[eduggs]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Good news perhaps with regards to the RRFS....it did a spectacular job today on ptypes in  Michigan and seems to have a good handle here tomorrow AM on the R/S line.  With the NAM being discontinued sometime in 2026 it was really important that the RRFS performed well on winter precip events given the HRRR and GFS are relatively awful usually being too cold aloft and the HRRR sometimes in the BL too.   The RRFS not having a MOS product though will continue to be a problem.

Here's the 12z RRFS snowfall output at 10:1 for our area. I think the CPA ridges are going to get a solid coating. But it dies out pretty quickly as you move eastward towards our area.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Yes near average

Lol, no.  Even in my area mid 40's don't average for another couple weeks.

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Lol, no.  Even in my area mid 40's don't average for another couple weeks.

He's trolling.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Yes near average

Well below. 

[ForestHillWx]

1” at MMU? Not much chatter in the office about any snow coming. Could be a fun surprise.