November 2025 OBS Discussion

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Thought we could get below freezing with the CAA continuing overnight-oh well. Flurries are nice to see.

Dropped to 31.9 here…I guess that counts! I had my doubts last night about dropping much lower, these setups usually underperform temp wise. 

[ForestHillWx]

Had ice in any potters that I didn’t empty from the rain the night before. 

[SACRUS]

 

Dep through the 1/3 of Nov (10th)


EWR: +3
JFK: +2.2
NYC: +2.2
LGA: + 1.9
 

[qg_omega]

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

This is expected 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

I don't see much milder. What's much milder? Milder than today? Sure. 

But there are no torches on the horizon, neither on the OPs or ensembles. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is expected 

Yeah I remember most guidance had November finishing with normal to slightly above normal temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good luck down there this year, guys. I know many of @bluewave and @TheClimateChanger's posts are grating to read for a winter enthusiast, but the truth is that I think my work is much better for trying to make a more concerted effort to incorporate CC into the forecasts because there is no question it's having an impact. That doesn't mean you have to agree with 100% of their takes; I certainly don't, but tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is expected 

So is death, are you waiting for it with baited breath?

[IrishRob17]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

Violently agree. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

[Neblizzard]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

Good to see.  It’s only November. 

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

It doesn't take effect right away.  You know this.  It is a seesaw pattern as of now, with long range showing cooler once again after the return to more normal temps for a few days.  Sundog said this earlier.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

Even out to the end of the EPS run it’s still holding the same look getting closer to the start of December. Models have come in much stronger with the blocking forecast over the last week.

But we need to get that trough out of the West in December to have a shot at going over 4” which is required for better snowfall prospects the rest of the winter during La Ninas. 

It’s still early so we have time to see how things evolve once into December.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good luck down there this year, guys. I know many of @bluewave and @TheClimateChanger's posts are grating to read for a winter enthusiast, but the truth is that I think my work is much better for trying to make a more concerted effort to incorporate CC into the forecasts because there is no question it's having an impact. That doesn't mean you have to agree with 100% of their takes; I certainly don't, but tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

I hope you're right and we can make a few chances verify. The outcomes can't get much worse than the last few winters so there's that. I did relatively well for the coastal plain/NYC area with 19.3" last winter and that's maybe 60% of average with how many cold enough for snow days we had.

[Cobalt]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

Not really that crazy, the same thing happened in Feb 2018.

[NorthShoreWx]

I did a little data mining of my snowfall records.  Over the past 30 winters (31 if you count through today), our average date of first snowfall (measurable or otherwise) is November 17.  Our average date of the last snowfall is March 31.  I've got a little PTSD from rehashing 2011-12 and a couple of others.  Here are the details (assuming it pastes legibly):

Winter	First Snowfall	Amount	First Measurable	Amount	Last Snowfall	Amount	Last Measurable	Amount
1995-1996	11/29/1995	4.0	11/29/1995	4.0	4/10/1996	7.0	4/10/1996	7.0
1996-1997	11/11/1996	T	11/28/1996	0.1	4/19/1997	T	4/9/1997	0.5
1997-1998	11/13/1997	T	12/10/1997	0.5	4/10/1998	T	3/22/1998	1.6
1998-1999	12/23/1998	0.7	12/23/1998	0.7	4/11/1999	T	3/15/1999	7.1
1999-2000	11/29/1999	T	12/22/1999	0.1	4/11/2000	T	4/9/2000	0.9
2000-2001	10/29/2000	T	12/8/2000	0.4	4/18/2001	T	3/26/2001	2.0
2001-2002	12/17/2001	T	1/7/2002	2.8	4/6/2002	T	3/18/2002	0.2
2002-2003	11/2/2002	T	11/27/2002	1.2	4/8/2003	T	4/7/2003	6.2
2003-2004	11/13/2003	T	12/5/2003	7.5	3/19/2004	3.6	3/19/2004	3.6
2004-2005	11/13/2004	0.2	11/13/2004	0.2	3/24/2005	1.6	3/24/2005	1.6
2005-2006	11/23/2005	T	11/24/2005	1.0	4/8/2006	T	3/2/2006	4.0
2006-2007	11/22/2006	T	1/19/2007	0.6	4/6/2007	T	3/16/2007	4.8
2007-2008	12/2/2007	0.9	12/2/2007	0.9	3/1/2008	0.6	3/1/2008	0.6
2008-2009	11/18/2008	T	12/6/2008	0.7	4/8/2009	T	3/2/2009	8.9
2009-2010	12/5/2009	T	12/9/2009	1.2	3/4/2010	0.2	3/4/2010	0.2
2010-2011	11/8/2010	T	12/13/2010	0.3	4/1/2011	T	3/24/2011	2.0
2011-2012	10/29/2011	T	1/21/2012	4.0	2/12/2012	0.1	2/12/2012	0.1
2012-2013	11/7/2012	2.0	11/7/2012	2.0	3/25/2013	T	3/21/2013	0.5
2013-2014	11/12/2013	0.3	11/12/2013	0.3	4/16/2014	0.2	4/16/2014	0.2
2014-2015	11/26/2014	T	12/8/2014	0.1	3/30/2015	T	3/29/2015	0.2
2015-2016	10/18/2015	T	12/29/2015	0.1	4/9/2016	T	3/3/2016	0.3
2016-2017	10/27/2016	T	11/21/2016	0.6	3/18/2017	T	3/14/2016	4.5
2017-2018	11/20/2017	T	12/9/2017	3.7	4/2/2018	6.1	4/2/2018	6.1
2018-2019	11/15/2018	4.5	11/15/2018	4.5	4/5/2019	T	3/4/2019	3.0
2019-2020	11/8/2019	T	12/1/2019	0.2	5/9/2020	T	1/18/2020	3.0
2020-2021	10/30/2020	T	12/16/2020	5.0	4/16/2021	T	2/20/2021	0.5
2021-2022	11/26/2021	T	12/24/2021	0.4	3/27/2022	T	2/13/2022	0.1
2022-2023	12/11/2022	T	12/12/2022	0.6	3/14/2023	2.0	3/14/2023	2.0
2023-2024	11/28/2023	T	1/6/2024	0.2	3/10/2024	T	2/17/2024	3.0
2024-2025	11/22/2024	T	12/5/2024	1.0	2/20/2025	0.2	2/20/2025	0.2
2025-2026	11/11/2025	T

[NorthShoreWx]

Nice follow up stat: today on 11-11 we tied for our 11th earliest snowfall.  I'd play that number.  Unless you want to be a downer and bump it up to 8th because of the ties.

 

10	18	2015
10	27	2016
10	29	2000
10	29	2011
10	30	2020
11	2	2002
11	7	2012
11	8	2010
11	8	2019
11	11	1996
11	11	2025
11	12	2013
11	13	1997
11	13	2003
11	13	2004
11	15	2018
11	18	2008
11	20	2017
11	22	2006
11	22	2024
11	23	2005
11	26	2014
11	26	2021
11	28	2023
11	29	1995
11	29	1999
12	2	2007
12	5	2009
12	11	2022
12	17	2001
12	23	1998

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good luck down there this year, guys. I know many of @bluewave and @TheClimateChanger's posts are grating to read for a winter enthusiast, but the truth is that I think my work is much better for trying to make a more concerted effort to incorporate CC into the forecasts because there is no question it's having an impact. That doesn't mean you have to agree with 100% of their takes; I certainly don't, but tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

Yes for sure but I think we had a few years of excess water vapor from Tonga which is finally starting to lessen.  It gave an artificial boost to the CC which of course is continuing

[donsutherland1]

The coldest air mass this season will begin to depart from the region. It will turn somewhat milder tomorrow. Tomorrow through Friday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

Another brief push of cold air could arrive to start the weekend.

Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -1.85 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.867 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.3° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

But we need to get that trough out of the West in December to have a shot at going over 4” which is required for better snowfall prospects the rest of the winter during La Ninas. 

The 4" number is arbitrary and/or coincidental. It is way over the top to claim that threshold is "required." If there is or was a meaningful causal relationship between December & winter snowfall at a particular reporting station, the causal factors have probably become less meaningful in the modern warming climate regime. This statistical connection is much more likely to represent merely a historical correlation than a causally predictive metric.

There are likely too many confounding factors and too small a sample size for such a statistic to be meaningful. Snowfall is a very local phenomenon. Just a few miles can separate significant snow from flurries or rain. And the way snow is measured has changed over time. Maybe a novice statistician or a superstitious hobbyist would take this seriously. But I suspect others would rightly poke holes. When we have 1000 winter season to adequately power an analysis, we can revisit this argument.

[Sundog]

38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yes for sure but I think we had a few years of excess water vapor from Tonga which is finally starting to lessen.  It gave an artificial boost to the CC which of course is continuing

Tonga + shipping emissions cleanup definitely boosted temps. Sadly the boost from aerosol cleanup is sticking around. 

Tonga has a few more years left to clear out.