November 2025 OBS Discussion

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Thought we could get below freezing with the CAA continuing overnight-oh well. Flurries are nice to see.

Dropped to 31.9 here…I guess that counts! I had my doubts last night about dropping much lower, these setups usually underperform temp wise. 

[ForestHillWx]

Had ice in any potters that I didn’t empty from the rain the night before. 

[SACRUS]

 

Dep through the 1/3 of Nov (10th)


EWR: +3
JFK: +2.2
NYC: +2.2
LGA: + 1.9
 

[qg_omega]

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

This is expected 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

I don't see much milder. What's much milder? Milder than today? Sure. 

But there are no torches on the horizon, neither on the OPs or ensembles. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is expected 

Yeah I remember most guidance had November finishing with normal to slightly above normal temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good luck down there this year, guys. I know many of @bluewave and @TheClimateChanger's posts are grating to read for a winter enthusiast, but the truth is that I think my work is much better for trying to make a more concerted effort to incorporate CC into the forecasts because there is no question it's having an impact. That doesn't mean you have to agree with 100% of their takes; I certainly don't, but tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is expected 

So is death, are you waiting for it with baited breath?

[IrishRob17]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

Violently agree. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

 pattern looks to break down in a week or so to much milder

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

[Neblizzard]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

Good to see.  It’s only November. 

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

It doesn't take effect right away.  You know this.  It is a seesaw pattern as of now, with long range showing cooler once again after the return to more normal temps for a few days.  Sundog said this earlier.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

Even out to the end of the EPS run it’s still holding the same look getting closer to the start of December. Models have come in much stronger with the blocking forecast over the last week.

But we need to get that trough out of the West in December to have a shot at going over 4” which is required for better snowfall prospects the rest of the winter during La Ninas. 

It’s still early so we have time to see how things evolve once into December.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good luck down there this year, guys. I know many of @bluewave and @TheClimateChanger's posts are grating to read for a winter enthusiast, but the truth is that I think my work is much better for trying to make a more concerted effort to incorporate CC into the forecasts because there is no question it's having an impact. That doesn't mean you have to agree with 100% of their takes; I certainly don't, but tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.

I hope you're right and we can make a few chances verify. The outcomes can't get much worse than the last few winters so there's that. I did relatively well for the coastal plain/NYC area with 19.3" last winter and that's maybe 60% of average with how many cold enough for snow days we had.

[Cobalt]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to think we may have a record SSWE and we are talking above normal temperatures

Not really that crazy, the same thing happened in Feb 2018.