November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Monitor whats going on in the Delmarva -I95 corridor... VERY sharp trough developing eastern USA.

WPC D1 from this afternoon mirrored the SPC HREF D1... looks too low in my NOWcast mode as I look at the radar and multiple models. Am looking for 1/4-3/4" for much of the subforum by Noon tomorrow between 7P tonight and Noon Monday.  This past Fri-through Noon Monday should see 0.3-1.25" for the 4 day period by the time we look at CoCoRaHs range of dates. 

Radar lighting up

[MJO812]

Thick fog here

[weathermedic]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Thick fog here

Was just about to comment on that. Nothing from NWS?

[MJO812]

Maybe some flurries this week ?

[MJO812]

Chicago Webcam

 

 

 

https://share.earthcam.net/tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88LOc-jcDgi0ca-YNv3MI9rc!.tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88G8-6CLOrQYCFNszQ91PWAs!.tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88DGHDxm0NvViWeCn-Q5a6NQ!/cub_world_sporting_goods_store/wrigley_field_cam/live

[bluewave]

Models have a -4 sigma upper low crossing the area tomorrow with record low 500 mb temperatures just to our south. There could even be a few wet snowflakes in mix getting close to the coast. Unusually deep mixing to 700mb gives the potential for momentum transfer of higher winds to surface. So don’t be surprised if we see some 40-50 mph gusts. NYC will probably get very close to its first freeze of the season around 32-33°.

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Monitor whats going on in the Delmarva -I95 corridor... VERY sharp trough developing eastern USA.

WPC D1 from this afternoon mirrored the SPC HREF D1... looks too low in my NOWcast mode as I look at the radar and multiple models. Am looking for 1/4-3/4" for much of the subforum by Noon tomorrow between 7P tonight and Noon Monday.  This past Fri-through Noon Monday should see 0.3-1.25" for the 4 day period by the time we look at CoCoRaHs range of dates. 

.40" overnight brings me to .75" since Friday. 

[qg_omega]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models have a -4 sigma upper low crossing the area tomorrow with record low 500 mb temperatures just to our south. There could even be a few wet snowflakes in mix getting close to the coast. Unusually deep mixing to 700mb gives the potential for momentum transfer of higher winds to surface. So don’t be surprised if we see some 40-50 mph gusts. NYC will probably get very close to its first freeze of the season around 32-33°.

Crazy record low 500mb temps and NYC will struggle to hit freezing tomorrow night, similar setup 10 years ago and I’m sure we are in the 20s

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy record low 500mb temps and NYC will struggle to hit freezing tomorrow night, similar setup 10 years ago and I’m sure we are in the 20s

In 2017 and 2019 we were closer to the core of the cold. So NYC was able to have record lows in the 23° to 25° range. That’s why I mentioned yesterday that this is similar to recent cold shots with the coldest departures and record lows going to our south like last January. 
 

New York-Central Park Area, NY
Period of record: 1869-01-01 through 2025-11-09DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

11/10	25 in 2017	27 in 1914	29 in 2004+
11/11	24 in 2017	28 in 1933	28 in 1926+
11/12	25 in 2019	26 in 1926	27 in 1920
11/13	23 in 2019	24 in 1986	25 in 1920

[FPizz]

.71" overnight.

[wdrag]

I'll possibly thread tomorrows 45MPH+ wind gusts and flurries, this afternoon. 

 

In the meantime... more rain coming to NYC and parts of NJ shortly.  Here's the past 24 hour amounts and amounts since Fri. Click for clarity.

[SACRUS]

52 / 48 .39 in the bucket overnight.   Cold Mon - Wed, below normal through The,  then back to or slightly above normal towards mid month and beyond.  GFS colder/stormer than the euro warmer less active.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 76 (2020)
NYC: 74 (2020)
LGA: 75 (2020)
JFK: 72 (1999)


Lows:

EWR: 25 (2017)
NYC: 25 (2017)
LGA: 27 (2017)
JFK: 25 (2017)

 

Historical:


1835: The Great Lakes are plagued by frequent November storms that move across the area, augmented by the heat and moisture from the lakes, which are warm relative to the colder air. On this date, a Great Lakes storm struck with devastating effect. 19 ships were sunk and 254 sailors drowned.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1911: A strong cold front dropped the temperature 68 degrees at Denver, CO from a high of 66° at 12:40 pm to 23° at midnight and -2° at 7:15 am the next morning. The low temperature of 23° at midnight was also the high temperature on the 11th. Winds gusted over 50 mph with the frontal passage. (Ref. November 10th Extreme Weather Day for Central US.) (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1913: Severe windstorm on Lake Superior. Three ships lost. Winds were clocked at 62 mph at Duluth, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1915 - An unusually late season tornado struck the central Kansas town of Great Bend killing eleven persons along its 35 mile track. The tornado destroyed 160 homes in Great Bend killing 11 persons and causing a million dollars damage. Hundreds of dead ducks dropped from the sky northeast of the track's end. (The Weather Channel)

1972: (10th-22nd) Due to fog, hoarfrost accumulated 4-5 inches on power lines in MT’s Hill, Blaine, Phillips, and Valley Counties. Some power lines sagged to within 1 foot of the ground; approx. 60 power poles came down; power disrupted several days. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1975 - Another freshwater fury hit the Great Lakes. A large ore carrier on Lake Superior, the Edmund Fitzgerald, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hardest hit by the storm, which produced wind gusts to 71 at Sault Ste Marie MI, and gusts to 78 mph at Grand Rapids MI. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm. (David Ludlum)

 

1975: The SS Edmund Fitzgerald sinks 17 miles northwest of Whitefish Point, at the northeastern tip of Michigan's Upper Peninsula on Lake Superior. While the sinking cause is unknown, strong winds and high waves likely played a significant role. The crew of 29 members was lost from this event.

1987 - A cold front brought snow to the Appalachian Region and freezing temperatures to the central U.S. Up to nine inches of snow blanketed Garrett County of extreme western Maryland. Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as El Paso TX and San Angelo TX. Gale force winds lashed the Middle Atlantic Coast and the coast of southern New England. Thunderstorms brought fire quenching rains to Alabama, and produced large hail and damaging winds to eastern North Carolina. Ahead of the cold front, seven cities in Florida and Georgia reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure system in southeastern Ontario buffeted the northeastern U.S., with the Lower Great Lakes Region hardest hit. Winds in western New York State gusted to 68 mph at Buffalo, to 69 mph at Niagra Falls, and to 78 mph at Brockport. Four persons were injured at Rome NY when a tree was blown onto their car. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong southwesterly winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. Winds of 80 to 90 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook zone of Montana, with gusts to 112 mph. Unseasonably warm weather accompanied the high winds. Shortly after midnight the temperature at Kalispell, MT, reached a record 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Windy and wet weather prevailed across Washington State. Strong southerly winds gusted to 70 mph at Rattlesnake Ridge, near Hanford. Six rivers in western Washington State rose above flood stage between the 9th and the 11th of the month, following eight days of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall over the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains between the 3rd and the 10th ranged from 14 to 24 inches. High freezing levels also caused the early snowpack to melt, adding to the runoff in the rain-swollen rivers. Damage was heaviest in Whatcom County, where the Nooksack River caused nearly six million dollars damage, mostly to roads and bridges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


 

1990: A strong F2 tornado touched down on Hatteras Island in North Carolina and winds gusted to 78 mph at the airport.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1995: The afternoon high at Oklahoma City OK was a toasty 83 degrees, but by late evening, over an inch of snow lay on the ground. Friday night football games were played in heavy snow that reduced visibilities to less than the length of a football field. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998: Wisconsin and Michigan: Intense storm generates extreme winds over the upper Great Lakes. Winds gust to 95 mph at Mackinac Island, MI and 93 mph at La Crosse, WI. (Ref. WxDoctor) What was called a "Land Hurricane" hit Minnesota. The lowest measured pressure ever for the state was 28.43 at Austin and Albert Lea until Oct. 26, 2010. Ten inches of snow fell at Madison, MN and St. Cloud State University had a gust of 64 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: Record autumn warmth moved eastward to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast courtesy of a southwesterly flow around high pressure over the Carolinas. Record highs for the date included: Atlantic City, NJ: 76°, Washington, DC: 76°-Tied, Baltimore, MD: 75°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 75°, Wilmington, DE: 74°, Philadelphia, PA: 73°, Providence, RI: 73°, Wallops Island, VA: 73°-Tied, Newark, NJ: 73°-Tied, Islip, NY: 72° and New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

2002 - Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and produced a widespread outbreak of severe weather including many tornadoes. The worst tornado damage was concentrated in Ohio, Tennessee and Alabama. A tornado rated as F-4 on the Fujita Scale struck Van Wert county in Ohio. In Tennessee, the community of Mossy Grove was nearly destroyed by a mile-wide tornado that claimed 12 lives (ENS). A major outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes occurred across the U.S. Tennessee and Ohio valley region on November 10-11, 2002, producing damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touched down on Sunday 10th, resulting in at least 36 deaths (ENS).

 

2002: The second-largest November tornado outbreak on record over the eastern United States occurred during the Veterans Day weekend of November 9-11th, 2002. Seventy-six tornadoes were reported in seventeen states. Of the 76 tornadoes, almost one out of every six was a killer, resulting in 36 fatalities.

[Sundog]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

.71" overnight.

That heavy blob really fell apart just as it was entering NYC

[NEG NAO]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Chicago Webcam

 

 

 

https://share.earthcam.net/tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88LOc-jcDgi0ca-YNv3MI9rc!.tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88G8-6CLOrQYCFNszQ91PWAs!.tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88DGHDxm0NvViWeCn-Q5a6NQ!/cub_world_sporting_goods_store/wrigley_field_cam/live

heavy snow band moving over Chicago as of 10 am

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

heavy snow band moving over Chicago as of 10 am

Unusual for them to get Lake Affect but wind is just right.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Unusual for them to get Lake Affect but wind is just right.

Very fickle setup. Chicago was forecast to get 12”+ yesterday, the city mostly has a few inches. They’re getting hit now but the band is pivoting south and won’t last over them long. Meanwhile I don’t think Kenosha was under any kind of warning yesterday and they have the 12+ Chicago was expecting. 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Very fickle setup. Chicago was forecast to get 12”+ yesterday, the city mostly has a few inches. They’re getting hit now but the band is pivoting south and won’t last over them long. Meanwhile I don’t think Kenosha was under any kind of warning yesterday and they have the 12+ Chicago was expecting. 

NWS going strictly by what the models were forecasting ?

[steve392]

Chilly damp morning.  Guess I'm not mowing the grass today ir any time soon. :/  

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NWS going strictly by what the models were forecasting ?

I guess the winds were supposed to be more NNE yesterday vs NE which would’ve put the band over the city. 

[eduggs]

Still looks good for flurries and maybe scattered snow showers on Tuesday! But the mid and early-long range look a little less interesting today.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Very fickle setup. Chicago was forecast to get 12”+ yesterday, the city mostly has a few inches. They’re getting hit now but the band is pivoting south and won’t last over them long. Meanwhile I don’t think Kenosha was under any kind of warning yesterday and they have the 12+ Chicago was expecting. 

Fake snow life

[winterwx21]

Getting some heavy downpours. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 76 (2020)
NYC: 74 (2020)
LGA: 75 (2020)
JFK: 72 (1999)


Lows:

EWR: 25 (2017)
NYC: 25 (2017)
LGA: 27 (2017)
JFK: 25 (2017)

 

Historical:


1835: The Great Lakes are plagued by frequent November storms that move across the area, augmented by the heat and moisture from the lakes, which are warm relative to the colder air. On this date, a Great Lakes storm struck with devastating effect. 19 ships were sunk and 254 sailors drowned.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1911: A strong cold front dropped the temperature 68 degrees at Denver, CO from a high of 66° at 12:40 pm to 23° at midnight and -2° at 7:15 am the next morning. The low temperature of 23° at midnight was also the high temperature on the 11th. Winds gusted over 50 mph with the frontal passage. (Ref. November 10th Extreme Weather Day for Central US.) (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1913: Severe windstorm on Lake Superior. Three ships lost. Winds were clocked at 62 mph at Duluth, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1915 - An unusually late season tornado struck the central Kansas town of Great Bend killing eleven persons along its 35 mile track. The tornado destroyed 160 homes in Great Bend killing 11 persons and causing a million dollars damage. Hundreds of dead ducks dropped from the sky northeast of the track's end. (The Weather Channel)

1972: (10th-22nd) Due to fog, hoarfrost accumulated 4-5 inches on power lines in MT’s Hill, Blaine, Phillips, and Valley Counties. Some power lines sagged to within 1 foot of the ground; approx. 60 power poles came down; power disrupted several days. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1975 - Another freshwater fury hit the Great Lakes. A large ore carrier on Lake Superior, the Edmund Fitzgerald, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hardest hit by the storm, which produced wind gusts to 71 at Sault Ste Marie MI, and gusts to 78 mph at Grand Rapids MI. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm. (David Ludlum)

 

1975: The SS Edmund Fitzgerald sinks 17 miles northwest of Whitefish Point, at the northeastern tip of Michigan's Upper Peninsula on Lake Superior. While the sinking cause is unknown, strong winds and high waves likely played a significant role. The crew of 29 members was lost from this event.

1987 - A cold front brought snow to the Appalachian Region and freezing temperatures to the central U.S. Up to nine inches of snow blanketed Garrett County of extreme western Maryland. Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as El Paso TX and San Angelo TX. Gale force winds lashed the Middle Atlantic Coast and the coast of southern New England. Thunderstorms brought fire quenching rains to Alabama, and produced large hail and damaging winds to eastern North Carolina. Ahead of the cold front, seven cities in Florida and Georgia reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure system in southeastern Ontario buffeted the northeastern U.S., with the Lower Great Lakes Region hardest hit. Winds in western New York State gusted to 68 mph at Buffalo, to 69 mph at Niagra Falls, and to 78 mph at Brockport. Four persons were injured at Rome NY when a tree was blown onto their car. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong southwesterly winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. Winds of 80 to 90 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook zone of Montana, with gusts to 112 mph. Unseasonably warm weather accompanied the high winds. Shortly after midnight the temperature at Kalispell, MT, reached a record 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Windy and wet weather prevailed across Washington State. Strong southerly winds gusted to 70 mph at Rattlesnake Ridge, near Hanford. Six rivers in western Washington State rose above flood stage between the 9th and the 11th of the month, following eight days of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall over the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains between the 3rd and the 10th ranged from 14 to 24 inches. High freezing levels also caused the early snowpack to melt, adding to the runoff in the rain-swollen rivers. Damage was heaviest in Whatcom County, where the Nooksack River caused nearly six million dollars damage, mostly to roads and bridges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


 

1990: A strong F2 tornado touched down on Hatteras Island in North Carolina and winds gusted to 78 mph at the airport.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1995: The afternoon high at Oklahoma City OK was a toasty 83 degrees, but by late evening, over an inch of snow lay on the ground. Friday night football games were played in heavy snow that reduced visibilities to less than the length of a football field. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998: Wisconsin and Michigan: Intense storm generates extreme winds over the upper Great Lakes. Winds gust to 95 mph at Mackinac Island, MI and 93 mph at La Crosse, WI. (Ref. WxDoctor) What was called a "Land Hurricane" hit Minnesota. The lowest measured pressure ever for the state was 28.43 at Austin and Albert Lea until Oct. 26, 2010. Ten inches of snow fell at Madison, MN and St. Cloud State University had a gust of 64 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: Record autumn warmth moved eastward to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast courtesy of a southwesterly flow around high pressure over the Carolinas. Record highs for the date included: Atlantic City, NJ: 76°, Washington, DC: 76°-Tied, Baltimore, MD: 75°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 75°, Wilmington, DE: 74°, Philadelphia, PA: 73°, Providence, RI: 73°, Wallops Island, VA: 73°-Tied, Newark, NJ: 73°-Tied, Islip, NY: 72° and New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

2002 - Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and produced a widespread outbreak of severe weather including many tornadoes. The worst tornado damage was concentrated in Ohio, Tennessee and Alabama. A tornado rated as F-4 on the Fujita Scale struck Van Wert county in Ohio. In Tennessee, the community of Mossy Grove was nearly destroyed by a mile-wide tornado that claimed 12 lives (ENS). A major outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes occurred across the U.S. Tennessee and Ohio valley region on November 10-11, 2002, producing damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touched down on Sunday 10th, resulting in at least 36 deaths (ENS).

 

2002: The second-largest November tornado outbreak on record over the eastern United States occurred during the Veterans Day weekend of November 9-11th, 2002. Seventy-six tornadoes were reported in seventeen states. Of the 76 tornadoes, almost one out of every six was a killer, resulting in 36 fatalities.

50th anniversary of the infamous wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Also, the "White Hurricane" of 1913 was winding down on this date and that wrecked a number of ships. Very deadly day on Superior historically.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[SACRUS]

47  / 46 

 

let us see if the clouds will break and that clearing west works its way east into the area.