WxWatcher007 Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest. That’s why Miller A’s are the gold standard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 GFS is just warming up to get waxed all winter by the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 4 hours ago, CAPE said: There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward. Yup. We were discussing this overnight as well about the handling of 5H. My hunch is we’ll be sneaking closer to the ECMWF solutions where it’ll rain but could very well support a minima from northeast NC up to the Lower Shore before picking back up closer to 40N. Sounds familiar, right? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup. We were discussing this overnight as well about the handling of 5H. My hunch is we’ll be sneaking closer to the ECMWF solutions where it’ll rain but could very well support a minima from northeast NC up to the Lower Shore before picking back up closer to 40N. Sounds familiar, right? tl;dr Congrats New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: GFS is just warming up to get waxed all winter by the Euro. Except when the euro shows a massive snow storm and gfs doesn’t and then the gfs is right. Like last years Feb event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s why Miller A’s are the gold standard. Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 10, 2025 Author Share Posted October 10, 2025 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win. When was the last time that happened? 2009? Same with clippers. Where did they go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup. We were discussing this overnight as well about the handling of 5H. My hunch is we’ll be sneaking closer to the ECMWF solutions where it’ll rain but could very well support a minima from northeast NC up to the Lower Shore before picking back up closer to 40N. Sounds familiar, right? OMG I just LLLLOOVVVEEEEE Ninas! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 "Winter is over" bridge jumping on October 10 has to be a new forum record. Well done! 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 41 minutes ago, dailylurker said: When was the last time that happened? 2009? Same with clippers. Where did they go? 2016, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 Models won’t get this right. A lot of combined energies exploding right over the mid Atlantic region . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 Well, at least if this does turn into a bust makes sense given the enso state. Things coming together too late is a classic nina thing! I'd rather have at least have a reason for the fail than just "bad luck", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 10, 2025 Author Share Posted October 10, 2025 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: 2016, right? I thought that was a Miller B that blew up south of us. I honestly can't remember the last time. Maybe Feb 2010 was a classic Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 WB 12Z ICON 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON HAHAHA it's like the Miller B screwzone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 It's over Actually per the GFS I'm just gonna get in my kayak and paddle out into the middle of the bay to experience some heavy rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it. I am like 5 miles from the red bullseye in Loudoun! LOL! What an odd model depiction.. I suspect there should be a lot more smoothing than that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 It is comical looking over this board for a rainstorm. I cannot wait until Winter. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it. Yep...full-on nina! Wouldn't surprise me if folks northeast of here get their first 1-2 footer of the decade this winter. Feels like we haven't seen a Miller of any type since before the pandemic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 Just now, Interstate said: It is comical looking over this board for a rainstorm. I cannot wait until Winter. Well if we can remember to just not believe any model solution that shows something un-nina like, and just not believe any solution in general until at the most 48 hours...we'll be good, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 rename this thread to the holiday weekend debacle, just like Feb 19-20 was lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 32 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is comical looking over this board for a rainstorm. I cannot wait until Winter. Get used to it. Gonna see a bunch of this over the next six months. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON Boxing day but without having to see NE get 3ft of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 I see we are all in mid-winter form! So with that, I’m at Peabody Heights drinking DIPAs early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 DIPAs. The closest we're gonna get is Miller Lite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 Euro is basically some light rain tomorrow afternoon and evening and that’s the whole deal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 Well, what did we expect? The Mid-Atlantic is back to the rug pulls and cliff jumpers we know and love! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 10, 2025 Share Posted October 10, 2025 1 hour ago, Scraff said: I see we are all in mid-winter form! So with that, I’m at Peabody Heights drinking DIPAs early. I was at Cushwa and now Sapwood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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