The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest. 

That’s why Miller A’s are the gold standard. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS is just warming up to get waxed all winter by the Euro. 

[MillvilleWx]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward.

 

Yup. We were discussing this overnight as well about the handling of 5H. My hunch is we’ll be sneaking closer to the ECMWF solutions where it’ll rain but could very well support a minima from northeast NC up to the Lower Shore before picking back up closer to 40N. Sounds familiar, right? 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup. We were discussing this overnight as well about the handling of 5H. My hunch is we’ll be sneaking closer to the ECMWF solutions where it’ll rain but could very well support a minima from northeast NC up to the Lower Shore before picking back up closer to 40N. Sounds familiar, right? 

tl;dr Congrats New England

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS is just warming up to get waxed all winter by the Euro. 

Except when the euro shows a massive snow storm and gfs doesn’t and then the gfs is right. Like last years Feb event. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s why Miller A’s are the gold standard. 

Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win.

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win.

When was the last time that happened? 2009? Same with clippers. Where did they go?

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup. We were discussing this overnight as well about the handling of 5H. My hunch is we’ll be sneaking closer to the ECMWF solutions where it’ll rain but could very well support a minima from northeast NC up to the Lower Shore before picking back up closer to 40N. Sounds familiar, right? 

OMG I just LLLLOOVVVEEEEE Ninas!

 

[WxUSAF]

Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little)

[hstorm]

"Winter is over" bridge jumping on October 10 has to be a new forum record.  Well done!

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

When was the last time that happened? 2009? Same with clippers. Where did they go?

2016, right?

[WEATHER53]

Models won’t get this right. A lot of combined energies exploding right over the mid Atlantic region .

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Well, at least if this does turn into a bust makes sense given the enso state. Things coming together too late is a classic nina thing! I'd rather have at least have a reason for the fail than just "bad luck", lol

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

2016, right?

I thought that was a Miller B that blew up south of us. I honestly can't remember the last time. Maybe Feb 2010 was a classic Miller A.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ICON

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z ICON

HAHAHA it's like the Miller B screwzone.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it.

[IronTy]

It's over

 

Actually per the GFS I'm just gonna get in my kayak and paddle out into the middle of the bay to experience some heavy rain. 

[midatlanticweather]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it.

I am like 5 miles from the red bullseye in Loudoun! LOL! What an odd model depiction.. I suspect there should be a lot more smoothing than that 

 

[Interstate]

It is comical looking over this board for a rainstorm.  I cannot wait until Winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it.

Yep...full-on nina! Wouldn't surprise me if folks northeast of here get their first 1-2 footer of the decade this winter. Feels like we haven't seen a Miller of any type since before the pandemic

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Interstate said:

It is comical looking over this board for a rainstorm.  I cannot wait until Winter.

Well if we can remember to just not believe any model solution that shows something un-nina like, and just not believe any solution in general until at the most 48 hours...we'll be good, lol