OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[BxEngine]

Did i log into the dead horse forum? My bad. 

[wthrmn654]

High wind warnings issued, wind advisories issued

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Sir I think you mean to say every storm. 

and with that said it's now bright and sunny here, so sunny that there's a glare....

[RU848789]

57 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit.  Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast.  Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy.  

I imagine they will slowly walk it down.  

Interesting.  I didn't realize the Sandy record surge/tides at Barnegat and on LBI in general (6-8'), were significantly lower than the record tides from Seaside north to Sandy Hook (8-12') and in Raritan Bay (up to 15'), which were 3-5' greater than previous records, as opposed to the 1' or so above records for LBI.  I always thought that LBI would've had just as high of tides, since Sandy came ashore in Brigantine putting LBI on the stronger, north side with NE/E winds.  I get why AC and south had significantly lower tides from Sandy, being on the south side of landfall.  

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nj.gov/dep/wms/download/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Looks like a good hit, 1.00-2.50" rain tomorrow into Monday with winds 20-30mph gusts up to 50mph+ at times. Some coastal flooding & beach erosion then storm moves away quickly Monday night into Tuesday. I'm driving from Douglaston to Kingston tomorrow and will return on Tuesday. There should be slightly lower rain amounts up in Kingston points north and west.

WX/PT

[wdrag]

So far most of LI/se NYS and NJ .01 to .24" since 6AM ish. 

[TJW014]

Believe it or not, NAM guidance so far is closest to the current depiction of our storm. 

[Sundog]

18z 3K NAM is dramatically drier compared to 12z. 

Regular NAM is still ok for places in eastern half of NJ and east. 

[wthrmn654]

Coastal flood warnings now issued

[jm1220]

Major flooding expected at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst Sun overnight especially. 

[wdrag]

Thread headline 425 PM Sat 10/11/25 adjusted with little change in expectations-potential from the Wednesday evening origination. Will check back Sunday morning.  Little more that I can contribute. 

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, Sundog said:

18z 3K NAM is dramatically drier compared to 12z. 

Regular NAM is still ok for places in eastern half of NJ and east. 

back and forth we go...radar time tomorrow lol

[Dark Star]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

back and forth we go...radar time tomorrow lol

Bring back the LFM...

[MANDA]

Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle most of the afternoon since about 1:00 here.  Checked the gauge and .02" as of 4:50.

Kind of damp, raw and chilly.  Currently 57.

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Bring back the LFM...

I'm still amazed at the job the LFM did with the Blizzard of 78.  Had it at 48 (only went out to 48 hours) hours and never let it go or wavered.  I have that as second hand information as I was in high school at the time.  I do remember speaking with Meteorologist Bill Korbel at the time and he was keeping me in the loop. I was one of his Weather Watchers back in the day.  Great guy and great Met.  LFM had a shaky reputation to say the least and was notorious for pulling the rug at the last minute.

[dseagull]

NWS has dialed back my predicted coastal flooding.  Slowly, we look to be headed from major to moderate instead.  Living on the water, 4-8 inches can mean the difference between insane amounts of water damage or just a PIA cleanup.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting.  I didn't realize the Sandy record surge/tides at Barnegat and on LBI in general (6-8'), were significantly lower than the record tides from Seaside north to Sandy Hook (8-12') and in Raritan Bay (up to 15'), which were 3-5' greater than previous records, as opposed to the 1' or so above records for LBI.  I always thought that LBI would've had just as high of tides, since Sandy came ashore in Brigantine putting LBI on the stronger, north side with NE/E winds.  I get why AC and south had significantly lower tides from Sandy, being on the south side of landfall.  

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nj.gov/dep/wms/download/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf

I think we were somewhere between 9-11 feet up here you might want to double check though I'm going by memory.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting.  I didn't realize the Sandy record surge/tides at Barnegat and on LBI in general (6-8'), were significantly lower than the record tides from Seaside north to Sandy Hook (8-12') and in Raritan Bay (up to 15'), which were 3-5' greater than previous records, as opposed to the 1' or so above records for LBI.  I always thought that LBI would've had just as high of tides, since Sandy came ashore in Brigantine putting LBI on the stronger, north side with NE/E winds.  I get why AC and south had significantly lower tides from Sandy, being on the south side of landfall.  

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nj.gov/dep/wms/download/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf

How did Cape May get a 12+ foot surge, that furthest South red point on your map.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting.  I didn't realize the Sandy record surge/tides at Barnegat and on LBI in general (6-8'), were significantly lower than the record tides from Seaside north to Sandy Hook (8-12') and in Raritan Bay (up to 15'), which were 3-5' greater than previous records, as opposed to the 1' or so above records for LBI.  I always thought that LBI would've had just as high of tides, since Sandy came ashore in Brigantine putting LBI on the stronger, north side with NE/E winds.  I get why AC and south had significantly lower tides from Sandy, being on the south side of landfall.  

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nj.gov/dep/wms/download/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf

Coastal geomorphology. That tight right 90 degree  angle is the perfect surge enhancer. That’s why the big bend in Florida is also so surge prone. Along with our enormous shallow continental shelf. One of the biggest in the world. 

[weathermedic]

Latest Sat afternoon/evening NWS briefing. Coastal flooding looks to be the major hazard with this system.

Latest Briefing Oct 11 evening.pdf

[Voyager]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

media and social media just run wild with everything these days...

This... 100%