"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.

[wdrag]

Nor'easter coming Sunday-Monday though track uncertain ranging from coastal hugger e of NJ worst case scenario to further southeast and less impact.

Graphics added are the Wednesday afternoon's WPC 5 day rainfall forecast ending 00z Tue 10/14,  

The WPC D5 concerns for excessive rainfall issued this Wednesday afternoon - Isolated 4" in the slight risk area but general 1-2" foreseen for much of the NYC subforum between 6AM EDT Sunday and 6AM Tuesday. 

Also added 4 successive 24 hr forecasts of the evolving 18z/8 GEFS 5H field which I hope repeats this winter... a phaser with a southeastward diving cold core strong short wave through the Great Lakes this weekend that ingests-draws northward - the moist trough currently developing along the se USA coast and results in a fairly intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday.  The EC EPS 24 hr max wind gust tool has been cyclically consistently offering 60+ MPH in the western Atlantic and 50+ MPH along parts of the NJ-LI coasts.  If this occurs, in conjunction with heavy rainfall, fully leaved tree branches would break or even uproot in some locations.  No guarantees on wind strength at this time 

The strong chilly high pressure system that is developing into our area now will become part of a eastern Canada block and set up a strong easterly gradient over our area and should result in multiple cycles of at least minor coastal flooding with a pretty strong potential for at least one high tide cycle moderate coastal flooding (even outlier LOW PROB spotty major) for either the midday Sunday or midday Monday high tide cycle along the NJ coast. Full moon is past us so the astronomical higher tide cycles are lowering and helps reduce the chance of more than moderate coastal flooding.  Still this is 4-5 days away, so intensity, track and system evolution are not locked into a worst case scenario and will ultimately determine impacts.   Erosion will occur...severity unknown. 

It appears the ECAI  has been most cyclically stable predicting this storm for our NYC subforum dating back to I think the 00z/4 cycle. 

 

Did not look at standard deviations departures of the 850 MB inflow but suffice to say, its stronger that normal. 

PWAT generally near 1.5" minimizes potential for much greater than 4" though the 2" PWAR axis lies just offshore. 

posted 741PM/8

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs still a good hit but likes eastern PA for the 2 to 3" amounts

 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs still a good hit but likes eastern PA for the 2 to 3" amounts

 

We have to watch for where any deform axis sets up west of the low, and any strong easterly flow would favor eastern slopes for heavier rains. Biggest concern of course is the strong easterly flow winds pounding the beaches over 2+ days and flooding in the back bays. 

[wthrmn654]

On Nwschat there still on board with a nice storm.

[TJW014]

Man if only it were January...

NJDotcom is already starting the fear mongering

[WeatherGeek2025]

what does euro ai 6z show for Sundays storm?

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what does euro ai 6z show for Sundays storm?

Light rain with heavier stuff at night and Monday 

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what does euro ai 6z show for Sundays storm?

Coastal scraper before it does a loop and gets pulled back and "nails" the tristate. We've seen the Euro try something like that before haha there were many tears that morning west of the Hudson

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Coastal scraper before it does a loop and gets pulled back and "nails" the tristate. We've seen the Euro try something like that before haha there were many tears that morning west of the Hudson

At this point tears would be beneficial to the reservoirs lol

[NJwx85]

It’s still very possible that this gets kicked out instead of pulled in if the timing is off. The 00z GGEM showed this scenario. It eventually captures but not until the center is well Southeast of the benchmark.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s still very possible that this gets kicked out instead of pulled in if the timing is off. The 00z GGEM showed this scenario. It eventually captures but not until the center is well Southeast of the benchmark.

You might be looking at an old run-last night's 0z crushes everyone

[MJO812]

More tucked in members on 6z eps

[wthrmn654]

What the euro ai and euro showed at 18z yesterday, showing a big shift south/ east,  hasn't shown since for the 00z or 06z. So it was likely a wonky run.  Time will tell. 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What the euro ai and euro showed at 18z yesterday, showing a big shift south/ east,  hasn't shown since for the 00z or 06z. So it was likely a wonky run.  Time will tell. 

6z EURO AI was a pull back. I don't think it indicates anythign though.

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

You might be looking at an old run-last night's 0z crushes everyone

I was looking on Tidbits. Just noticed it hasn’t been updating.

[Brian5671]

I see these AI models posted a bit-do they have any credibility at all?

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I see these AI models posted a bit-do they have any credibility at all?

Tropical system wise i think there doing very very good this year.  Other then that can't really say

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We have to watch for where any deform axis sets up west of the low, and any strong easterly flow would favor eastern slopes for heavier rains. Biggest concern of course is the strong easterly flow winds pounding the beaches over 2+ days and flooding in the back bays. 

Sounds so much like Ash Wednesday March 1962 and December 1992!!

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I see these AI models posted a bit-do they have any credibility at all?

Just another model to add to the usual mayhem.  

[Stormlover74]

Gfs has heavy rain by Sunday morning.  The low stalls over Baltimore so the heaviest amounts are south and west

[NJwx85]

It’s looking like Saturday afternoon is going to have issues now too, especially Southwest. Thought it would be salvageable but considering postponing my trip.

[Brian5671]

best rains SW of us by noon Monday-but check out the east flow amts against the mountains in some spots

[Sundog]

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

best rains SW of us by noon Monday-but check out the east flow amts against the mountains in some spots

Meanwhile the 12z UKMET has the fake pullback and nails New England instead. 

 

[wthrmn654]

I wonder if the gfs and icon are showing a to tucked in outcome compared to a bit more east and stronger like the euro? 

[jm1220]

As we should all know now with these it’s a very fickle evolution and small details will cause big changes in outcome. Looks pretty likely though we have a developing strong offshore low and easterly wind that causes beach erosion/flooding. 

[Sundog]

More loop back nonsense on the 12z EURO AI. We will be watching fingers crossed at the precip coming from the east. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Sundog said:

More loop back nonsense on the 12z EURO AI. We will be watching fingers crossed at the precip com in from the east. 

Can you post please? What does Saturday look like too?

[Snowlover11]

CMC says what storm lol

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

CMC says what storm lol

Are you looking at a current run? It hasn't run on TT or Pivotal Weather in a few days (when many models had it missing to the SE). 

Today's 12Z run was posted in the Mid Atlantic thread, and it looks really good. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro's a big hit