October Hybrid: 2025 Edition

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I run them off my phone. It works great ! So many sources and it’s how I formulate my wind ideas 

Probably shouldn't ask but what did all your formulating come up with?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just an early idea.. but 50 ish gusts pike south and 60 ish 95 south and east . These seem reasonable at this early juncture . Definitely many outages with leaves on trees and any kind of Easterly wind direction component which trees are not accustomed to . And it’s a long duration wind event 

 

 

 

[willyvonka]

Need to take ferry from Nantucket on Tuesday. Any chance I’ll be stuck on the Island? I assume the storm will be mostly gone by then. 

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, willyvonka said:

Need to take ferry from Nantucket on Tuesday. Any chance I’ll be stuck on the Island? I assume the storm will be mostly gone by then. 

Depends if you believe the Canadian model or not.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well 18z gfs certainly got wetter lol. Man this storm is all over the place.

But that’s just it the last 2-3 years…every single storm of consequence is always all over the place run to run at 2 days out.  As we close in it seems the modeling diverges more than ever.  0z will go back the other way, and 6z will go back the opposite again.  Seems worse than ever. 

[OrangeCTWX]

GFS pretty significantly further south with the low lol

[OrangeCTWX]

8 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

GFS pretty significantly further south with the low lol

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is a good hit. Not sure why everyone said it’s south. 
 

Euro and AI and NAM redevelop it south of New England and then rip it back west like some guidance showed yesterday. Definitely not in agreement with the interaction of a piece of moisture NW of Jerry. Need to get euro and AI more north for anything real meaningful I think. NAM is high impact, but when is it not lol.

[CoastalWx]

Also euro guidance takes that s/w over the lakes and moves it over us which blocks how far north it can get. My gut says that the main issue is keeping this further south and helping to reduce impacts, but still time i guess. 

[Torch Tiger]

9 hours ago, willyvonka said:

Need to take ferry from Nantucket on Tuesday. Any chance I’ll be stuck on the Island? I assume the storm will be mostly gone by then. 

days n days

[UnitedWx]

11 hours ago, kdxken said:

Probably shouldn't ask but what did all your formulating come up with?

Hops and barley?

[WinterWolf]

Glad to see we have zero agreement and we are two days out.  

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Glad to see we have zero agreement and we are two days out.  

There’s enough agreement to know it’s gonna rain, but I don’t think this is gonna be a huge deal overall. They’ll probably a little bit of wind damage on the south coast or CT and over southeast mass.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s enough agreement to know it’s gonna rain, but I don’t think this is gonna be a huge deal overall. They’ll probably a little bit of wind damage on the south coast or CT and over southeast mass.

Well if one camp is right and the other wrong, there will be a very big difference in sensible weather. 

[dendrite]

We just don’t know

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well if one camp is right and the other wrong, there will be a very big difference in sensible weather. 

I’m leaning not a huge deal outside of minor stuff. Beaches of CT could get a good one.

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m leaning not a huge deal outside of minor stuff. Beaches of CT could get a good one.

6z Euro a bit better

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro a bit better

Of course cuz it’s 6z…could have guaranteed that. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We just don’t know

We don’t. 

[CoastalWx]

Scooter knows 

[CoastalWx]

Man NAM pillages. Too bad it’s the NAM.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looking at everything it now looks mundane and boring . It’s not phasing in the lakes low so the most boring outcome happens. A little rain and wind and no damage no excitement. The way things have been going for 10 years now 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man NAM pillages. Too bad it’s the NAM.

Every year we hear how they are going to retire that POS…yet every year it’s back with its total nonsense…thing sucks moose testes. 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looking at everything it now looks mundane and boring . It’s not phasing in the lakes low so the most boring outcome happens. A little rain and wind and no damage no excitement. The way things have been going for 10 years now 

So many heavy storms last 10 years. Lots of damage from these hybrids.  

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looking at everything it now looks mundane and boring . It’s not phasing in the lakes low so the most boring outcome happens. A little rain and wind and no damage no excitement. The way things have been going for 10 years now 

That’s the outcome that is always more favored with all events and systems…so you lean that way until otherwise shown something different with some semblance of confidence.  Right now there is very little confidence in something bigger, except in some rainy and maybe breezy weather. 

[weatherwiz]

One big difference of note too is the timing. Window for some of the worst weather was more Sunday...Sunday night, maybe early Monday morning but the NAM would have this occur more during the day Monday. Not sure how much I buy into the NAM evolution though. 

Something to watch though is potential for elevated convection from southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and far eastern Mass. Elevated convection typically not favorable for producing wind, however, because of the strong llvl jet any elevated convection would surely help mix down some of that llvl jet. 

I could see gusts 55-65 mph along the immediate coast with sustained winds 25-35ish. It will be windy inland due to the pressure gradient but I don't think we'll see much in the way of higher wind gusts. Probably wouldn't even really see any gusts above 30-35.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So many heavy storms last 10 years. Lots of damage from these hybrids.  

Not widespread and exciting . Maybe small areas. I just don’t understand what happened to extreme wx . It just doesn’t happen anymore 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

If only this Columbus Day storm could be for us what 1962 was for the PNW.

[Bryan63]

Sorry to ask a 'me' question, but my parents are making the drive back to NC and trying to figure out the best timing for them.

Right now my mind set is leaving Saturday getting into Southern NJ/Delaware for their hotel, and then finishing the drive Sunday. Looks like most of the weather would pass them overnight but not sure.

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One big difference of note too is the timing. Window for some of the worst weather was more Sunday...Sunday night, maybe early Monday morning but the NAM would have this occur more during the day Monday. Not sure how much I buy into the NAM evolution though. 

Something to watch though is potential for elevated convection from southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and far eastern Mass. Elevated convection typically not favorable for producing wind, however, because of the strong llvl jet any elevated convection would surely help mix down some of that llvl jet. 

I could see gusts 55-65 mph along the immediate coast with sustained winds 25-35ish. It will be windy inland due to the pressure gradient but I don't think we'll see much in the way of higher wind gusts. Probably wouldn't even really see any gusts above 30-35.

This weenie is very excited. Gonna be right on the water for this one. Let her rip!