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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine--Advisory Forthcoming


WxWatcher007
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Closer to the coast than 00z, but a departure from the clear landfall at 06z. Humberto is pulling away as the ridge rolls over the top so the escape route probably closes. Still a lot to figure out with not a lot of time. 

Then per other sources it stalls just offshore for 24+ hours

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22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

“Hilton Head landfall Thursday morning on euro” way out at hour 144 or so with devastating amounts of rainfall in SC. Then drifts S to near SAV.

The sound you just heard was every emergency manager in South and North Carolina furiously trying to order extra water rescue teams.

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Note how the ridge above slams the door shut for an escape, even though Humberto is able to initially exert some influence. It leads to a prolific rain event...

I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro is a Matthew redux for a large portion of the Carolinas.

Total noob here. I follow this board pretty closely for weather info, and I understand about 10% of what I read. However, I'm learning. This comment really caught my eye.

I was at Ground Zero for Matthew (and Florence) here in southeastern NC. I mean, we had Jim Cantore in our town and everything. One if the biggest issues with Matthew was that we'd had a lot of rain prior to that storm. Right now, however, it is extremely dry in most of our part of the state. I assume that would make a huge difference when comparing potential outcomes of this storm to Matthew, or am I totally off base?

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1 minute ago, Kraychav said:

Total noob here. I follow this board pretty closely for weather info, and I understand about 10% of what I read. However, I'm learning. This comment really caught my eye.

I was at Ground Zero for Matthew (and Florence) here in southeastern NC. I mean, we had Jim Cantore in our town and everything. One if the biggest issues with Matthew was that we'd had a lot of rain prior to that storm. Right now, however, it is extremely dry in most of our part of the state. I assume that would make a huge difference when comparing potential outcomes of this storm to Matthew, or am I totally off base?

Extremely dry can lead to extreme run off until the ground gets moist enough to absorb rain.  

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine--Advisory Forthcoming

Humberto is now a Cat 3.

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 58.1W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
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Taking a look at our coming PTC. Thanks to @Nibor for showing me how to post larger gif animations. 

You can clearly see both the gradual organization and headwinds for the coming PTC 9. To the north, you can see arc clouds still radiating out of the area, indicating the presence of some dry air. You can also see some of the thunderstorm tops being sheared, although it does look like in recent frames that things may have slackened some.  

03LuPYC.gif

It's easier to see the larger scale spin, and recon is on the way to examine how well defined a low level center there is. For a relatively short term forecast, there is still a lot to be figured out. 

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the central Bahamas and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions 
of the northwestern Bahamas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, 
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New 
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

Interests in eastern Cuba, the southeast Bahamas, the Turks and 
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the 
progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is 
expected during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the 
center of the system is expected to track across the central and 
northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S. 
coast early next week. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to 
become a tropical depression on Saturday and a tropical storm 
Saturday night or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in 
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and 
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible in the
watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following 
storm total rainfall amounts through Monday morning.

Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16 
inches possible. 

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected. 

Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to 
4 inches of additional rainfall are expected. 

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. 
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across 
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. 

An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast 
over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could 
cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the 
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of 
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the 
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto 
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to 
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.  These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found 
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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