Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development

[wthrmn654]

Gefs,imo doesn't look like much of anything and the storm kinda vanishes with the one to the east surviving going towards Bermuda... am I seeing it wrong or no? 

[PackGrad05]

12Z Euro is slower than 00Z...   Landfall roughly the same area, but it is slower by about 6 hours....  

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, stormwatcherJ said:

I never like to hear the word "stall" when talking about a hurricane approaching the NC/SC coast. That's always the most catastrophic scenario. Rain, rain, more rain. 

Yeah that's worst case in many ways, especially if it's a strong TS or weak hurricane lost at sea near the coast.

Of course, this may be a nothingburger and we're all just b.s.'ing; let's not assume this will be a hurricane at any point, nevermind near NC/SC   

I'm suspicious of like 80% of the modeling beyond D4 at this point, but I'd expect a TS or weak 'cane approaching the Carolinas by then.

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

12z euro ai is quite remarkable! Wow! 

 

Doesn't make landfall, putters around in the ocean then comes up the east coast passing roughly, just south east of the 40°,70° mark...

[wncsnow]

Euro shows serious flooding in NC and possibly VA/SC as the confluence in the NE stalls the storm out and helps draw moisture from Humberto. 

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Gefs,imo doesn't look like much of anything and the storm kinda vanishes with the one to the east surviving going towards Bermuda... am I seeing it wrong or no? 

It smoothes out the pressure isobars  between all the solutions so when you have a spread in tracks you won't see the average storm track. Spaghetti plot:

[wthrmn654]

Euro ai has it stalled roughly long enough the the high to the north weakens and moves east,  allowing it to come up the coast, unfortunately close to the north east....

And,

Yes the Carolinas potentially get very bad conditions at is closest approach. 

[wthrmn654]

Let's not forget, the ai models did very very good with Erin ultimate track, hinting at it far sooner then the other models and was pretty accurate, same with the icon ironically..... not sure it anything right now though. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro shows serious flooding in NC and possibly VA/SC as the confluence in the NE stalls the storm out and helps draw moisture from Humberto. 

I think regardless of track there’s going to be a flood risk maybe up to the Mid-Atlantic given the upper level setup. Hopefully not to this extent though. 

[wthrmn654]

Oh, and the consensus tracks shifts way west at 12z. Of which will likely play a big part in the invest future plan of attack

For humberto

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It smoothes out the pressure isobars  between all the solutions so when you have a spread in tracks you won't see the average storm track. Spaghetti plot:

Higher-end QPF event at minimum on most of those gfs solutions.

[olafminesaw]

I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data

[GaWx]

 Based on the 12Z ops and individual GEFS/GEPS members, the best bet for the SE US to not get hit thanks to Fujiwhara is for 94L to not be moving too fast and thus never get N of Humberto’s latitude. Helping also would be for it to be significantly weaker than Humberto.

[Chadzachadam]

7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Oh, and the consensus tracks shifts way west at 12z. Of which will likely play a big part in the invest future plan of attack

For humberto

I would think this would actually be good news for the SE coast, since Humberto in all likelihood gets pulled out to sea eventually, the further west it is the more likely it is that Imelda gets pulled out with it

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data

Not sure if it’d happen today as the 2pm TWO didn’t mention it, but maybe at 11pm and almost certainly tomorrow given it’s proximity to the islands. 

[wthrmn654]

Gefs, 6z versus 12z 

 

[wthrmn654]

For comparison,  6z and 12z for humberto

Not going lie, there is deft looks like less of a curve towards Bermuda. If anything further west before it turns. 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS, while still scary for the SE US with ~60% hitting and ~50%+ of those hitting being strong TS+, isn’t quite as ominous as the 0Z, which had ~75% hitting the SE. About 40% of members are strongly affected by Fujiwhara with Humberto.

[wthrmn654]

Found Google ai tropical cyclone models page, with plots and interactive for anyone interested. Make sure you click the menu menu button top left to turn on or off more settings pots etc. 

https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

I would think this would actually be good news for the SE coast, since Humberto in all likelihood gets pulled out to sea eventually, the further west it is the more likely it is that Imelda gets pulled out with it

But wouldn’t a further W track of Humberto mean a slower latitude gain, which would then mean a higher chance for 94L to get N of Humberto’s latitude and would thus reduce the chance for 94L to get pulled OTS by Humberto? I hope not but am wondering.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS, while still scary for the SE US with ~60% hitting and ~50%+ of those hitting being strong TS+, isn’t quite as ominous as the 0Z, which had ~75% hitting the SE. About 40% of members are strongly affected by Fujiwhara with Humberto.

Hammering home the point that—for anyone lurking—even with the trend from the Euro and GFS, there is still a **high** amount of uncertainty on eventual track and intensity. Nothing is locked in yet. 

[Chadzachadam]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But wouldn’t a further W track of Humberto mean a slower latitude gain, which would then mean a higher chance for 94L to get N of Humberto’s latitude and would thus reduce the chance for 94L to get pulled OTS by Humberto? I hope not but am wondering.

True, it might be kind of a wash since really the proximity is what matters and slower latitude gain for Humberto cancels out the greater proximity from Humberto being further west. Some of the crazy-looking model solutions where Imelda gets right to the coast, cuts East, then loops back around as Humberto races out to sea actually do kind of make sense and would almost certainly bring serious flooding to the Carolinas

[olafminesaw]

26 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Found Google ai tropical cyclone models page, with plots and interactive for anyone interested. Make sure you click the menu menu button top left to turn on or off more settings pots etc. 

https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

The visualization with the moving dots is fantastic. 

[Krs4Lfe]

I'm getting stron Joaquin vibes from this one. Except Joaquin was strong when passing through the Bahamas, but then it stalled as it passed through Bahamas and then kicked out to see, but it's moisture flooded the Carolinas big time. With Humberto nearby, I think that would act as a mechanism to tug Imelda out to sea. However, with Joaquin, there was a trough heading through the east US and Joaquin stalled over Bahamas which allowed trough to arrive in time to bring it out to sea. 

[GaWx]

 The MJO for 9/27 through 10/3 or 10/4 is again being forecasted by GEFS and EPS to be in phase 2, which is about tied for the most dangerous phase along with 8 for Conus H landfalls and by a large margin has been the most dangerous for Conus MH landfalls (inside or outside the circle).

MH Conus landfalls since 1974 during phase 2
-Ida (2021)
-Michael (2018)
-Irma (2017)
-Harvey (2017)
-Ivan (2004)
-Bret (1999)
-Emily (1993)
-Hugo (1989)
-Frederic (1979)
-Eloise (1975)
-Carmen (1974)

 That’s 11 of 29 (38%) of all Conus MH hits since 1974 just during phase 2. These were all during Jul-Oct. During Jul-Oct 1974-2024, 16% of days were in phase 2. So, even after taking into account the fact that the # of days in phase 2 has been about the largest of any one phase along with phase 1, the 38% of all MH hits is still very high. If phase 2 were instead a neutral influence, one would expect the # of MH hits during phase 2 to be only ~3-5.

GEFS 

 

EPS

[wthrmn654]

28 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

True, it might be kind of a wash since really the proximity is what matters and slower latitude gain for Humberto cancels out the greater proximity from Humberto being further west. Some of the crazy-looking model solutions where Imelda gets right to the coast, cuts East, then loops back around as Humberto races out to sea actually do kind of make sense and would almost certainly bring serious flooding to the Carolinas

And possibly bring threats further north depending how long it stalls. 

[Chadzachadam]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

And possibly bring threats further north depending how long it stalls. 

Yep, long way away but multiple models have Imelda or its remnants somewhere along the East Coast until like 10/10