Fall 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

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[A-L-E-K]

keep me posted

[A-L-E-K]

not seeing any end to the mild weather anytime soon

[Chicago Storm]

7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

not seeing any end to the mild weather anytime soon

ENS keep a re-loading a +EPO for the rest of the month.

If nothing else were to factor in, that would keep the mild/warm temps in place.

[hawkeye_wx]

Ugh.  The early to mid next week system is now expected to pass well south of Iowa, so models have really dried up through ten days again, and that's after barely getting anything the last couple days.  The ensemble averages have been too optimistic with their prediction of a wetter pattern.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Extended looks warm and dry. We’ll probably continue with highs in the 70s until the inevitable sharp cold front and first flakes around October 18-20th. Seems to happen like that almost every year around here. 

[A-L-E-K]

WAD winter incoming?

[cyclone77]

Exciting times ahead.

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Exciting times ahead.

 

If we’re going to have nice “warm” days it might as well be October(especially early October). A cold and wet October isn’t exciting to me anyway unless you’re just looking for the first flakes of snow. November on the other hand is when we need a more active pattern for severe and or winter weather. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Exciting times ahead.

 

Dont hate WAD october, but start to get concerned that we roll right into WAD winter. 

 

Pretty damn boring locally, and the gulf is recurve city. 

[Baum]

^ Ban

[Chambana]

With no drought relief on the horizon, IF we have a drier than normal winter, could be an early and very warm spring next year. I have ZERO rain in my forecast the next 10-12 days.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

With no drought relief on the horizon, IF we have a drier than normal winter, could be an early and very warm spring next year. I have ZERO rain in my forecast the next 10-12 days.

You're jumping the gun though. I know you said "if". But dry mild Falls followed by wet winters is a very common theme for ninas in the midwest/Great Lakes.

[DocATL]

At least eastern portions of the GL are going to get some closer to fall-like temps this week. East coast looks delightful. No end in sight in western Chicago burbs. Might hit 90° tomorrow!!

[A-L-E-K]

Looks like a torch month, would love to pop a 90

[madwx]

Been stagnant pattern wise for the past 2 weeks. But potential for things to change 7-10 days from now.  More active and a few more cooler shots 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Get us a non-shitty Halloween, then lets slam into winter. 

[DocATL]

Pretty sure we are 75-85 until Halloween and then we get a flizzard and 35.


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[Chicago Storm]

Probably the most significant pattern change we've seen in a while is on the horizon...

We're going to replace the constant re-loading +EPO with a re-loading -EPO and -PNA. This will likely will lead to a more active weather pattern than we've seen (That's not hard to do) and more of an up/down temperature regime, with some shots of real fall conditions.

[TheClimateChanger]

Drought conditions: Dramatic images show record low river levels in downtown Grand Rapids