Hurricane Erin: 140 MPH - 935 mb - NW @ 12

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

As it stands right now this thing should cross at the 70,35 if not just to the left of it , when it's going northeast ish with regards to the north east region

[Wannabehippie]

looking very healthy.

[wthrmn654]

At 1200 UTC, 18 August 2025, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.9°N and 70.5°W. The current intensity was 120 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb.

[wthrmn654]

11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 23.1°N 70.8°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[wthrmn654]

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward 
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt.  Although there hasn't 
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled 
to the west-northwest.  Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track 
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.  
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S. 
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western 
Atlantic subtropical ridge.  During the next few days, Erin is 
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between 
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours.  The official 
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and 
close to the dynamical model consensus.  Later in the forecast 
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate 
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

[WxWatcher007]

Also from the NHC

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin.  Tropical storm conditions 
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks 
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch 
may be required later today.

[wthrmn654]

Af 304 seems to be having some issues with finding a center?  3 passes in a row,  935,938, then 936.

 

[wthrmn654]

Boy what a win for the icon of it's dammed consistency pans out 

 

Also the euro AI. Both have been stubbornly consistent. 

[wthrmn654]

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230

miles (370 km).

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like Erin has made the turn to the north 

[eyewall]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like Erin has made the turn to the north 

It does in fact appear a more northward trajectory has resumed.

[olafminesaw]

IR appearance has degraded considerably in the last hour or two. Trying to complete an ERC and probably feeling more of the shear now. May gradually weaken until shear can abate

[Boston Bulldog]

Yeah the northerly shear is pretty apparent with the restricted outflow on the northern part of the circulation. Compare the extent of outflow on the north side to the south side, huge difference.

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion 1215 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025
Hurricane Erin  Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...ERIN STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER... 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 23.1°N 70.8°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

[Wannabehippie]

Eye obscured, and looks to be open to the south.

[NorthHillsWx]

I think we’re in the slow weakening phase now. With the core looking disrupted and wind expanding in all quadrants and the system now experiencing some northerly shear (which its northerly motion now put it directly in the line of fire with) I expect a slow rot of intensity. Likely remains a major through midweek but I believe we’ve already witnessed our secondary peak 

[Windspeed]

I think we’re in the slow weakening phase now. With the core looking disrupted and wind expanding in all quadrants and the system now experiencing some northerly shear (which its northerly motion now put it directly in the line of fire with) I expect a slow rot of intensity. Likely remains a major through midweek but I believe we’ve already witnessed our secondary peak 

I concur. It looked like it was really going to take off again this morning, but concentric banding and increasing shear are keeping Erin's core in check. The windfield continues to expand. Slill a large and powerful major hurricane, but it should weaken, albeit slowly, from here on out.

[MonumentalNole]

Is it possible to restrict Barry's posting to the banter thread.  Has contributed literally nothing this entire time and has been clogging up the thread with nonsense.

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we’re in the slow weakening phase now. With the core looking disrupted and wind expanding in all quadrants and the system now experiencing some northerly shear (which its northerly motion now put it directly in the line of fire with) I expect a slow rot of intensity. Likely remains a major through midweek but I believe we’ve already witnessed our secondary peak 

 

16 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I concur. It looked like it was really going to take off again this morning, but concentric banding and increasing shear are keeping Erin's core in check. The windfield continues to expand. Slill a large and powerful major hurricane, but it should weaken, albeit slowly, from here on out.

Count me in this group. Erin did mount a bit of a comeback, but the structural changes and shear has taken a toll. Still a dangerous storm to be sure, but just entering a new phase of its life cycle as it turns north and expands dramatically. Here's the last 10 hours on IR. 

Perhaps of note (or not), both the 12z HAFS and Euro pull this significantly closer to the Outer Banks. There have been some modeling head fakes, hence my skepticism, but as we know Erin has been pulling more west at times. Flooding will be the major issue there, but it looks like a TS watch may be justified later today. 

Even though it won't be a direct hit, I hope Outer Banks folks are taking this seriously. 

[Scott747]

12 minutes ago, MonumentalNole said:

Is it possible to restrict Barry's posting to the banter thread.  Has contributed literally nothing this entire time and has been clogging up the thread with nonsense.

Plenty of his posts have been either deleted or edited recently. For the most part he has taken the hint after some advice behind the scenes. 

If a poster is continuing to be annoying, either put them on ignore or report them.

 

[TPAwx]

9 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

Plenty of his posts have been either deleted or edited recently. For the most part he has taken the hint after some advice behind the scenes. 

If a poster is continuing to be annoying, either put them on ignore or report them.

 

Thanks for taking action.

FYI for others.  I had placed BGP on ignore but continued to see their posts.  Had to manually toggle off visibility option in my settings to suppress posts and other activity.

[Wannabehippie]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 23.5°N 71.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[WEATHER53]

It’s 20 degrees cooler around DC today with a solid push from the north.  Will this have an effect on Erin ?

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Thanks for taking action.

FYI for others.  I had placed BGP on ignore but continued to see their posts.  Had to manually toggle off visibility option in my settings to suppress posts and other activity.

Also, not saying this to you or anyone specifically but don’t quote him-that will cut down on the posts of his you see as well. I agree that he should put the phone or keyboard away when he’s on his tenth pint in Ibiza or wherever. 

[NJwx85]

25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s 20 degrees cooler around DC today with a solid push from the north.  Will this have an effect on Erin ?

The current trough that moved through the Northeast is weakening and lifting out. The trough that will steer this out will build into the Northeast tomorrow night into Wedensday. There’s still spread on timing of pieces affecting the strength of the sub tropical ridge and the overall track. It’s the difference between a complete miss and a graze on the outer banks.