Hurricane Erin: 130 MPH - 942mb - NW @ 12

[Chinook]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

NHC upgraded Erin back to Category 4, 115 KTs/130 MPH for the 11PM AST package, though that may have been just a tad generous. Recon just sampled 119 KT at flight level in the NE quadrant and 948 mb minimum pressure. However, Erin does appear to be getting its act together tonight and near a period of intensification soon regardless. Of note, they report that the eye is closed at 30NM diameter. Erin is a large hurricane now and has a window to contract its RMW. So, the forecast for a higher end Category 4 isn't unreasonable through early Tuesday prior to stronger shear values encroaching on the circulation.
 

I wonder if it's getting ready to drop down below 940 based on the new flight-level winds, as mentioned.

[GaWx]

 0Z UKMET: furthest NW and strongest run yet while SE of NC at closest point (942 mb!). It is then a mere 135 miles SE of Hatteras as of 8AM Thu!

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2025 0 22.0N 68.9W 938 101
1200UTC 18.08.2025 12 23.0N 70.7W 949 96
0000UTC 19.08.2025 24 23.9N 72.0W 968 69
1200UTC 19.08.2025 36 25.3N 72.8W 969 71
0000UTC 20.08.2025 48 27.2N 73.8W 964 60
1200UTC 20.08.2025 60 29.2N 74.3W 957 81
0000UTC 21.08.2025 72 31.6N 74.8W 949 91
1200UTC 21.08.2025 84 33.6N 73.8W 942 82
0000UTC 22.08.2025 96 35.4N 71.9W 943 69
1200UTC 22.08.2025 108 36.1N 69.7W 942 70
0000UTC 23.08.2025 120 36.9N 67.7W 947 63
1200UTC 23.08.2025 132 37.9N 66.1W 951 66
0000UTC 24.08.2025 144 39.3N 64.3W 955 58
1200UTC 24.08.2025 156 40.9N 62.4W 956 55
0000UTC 25.08.2025 168 42.8N 58.8W 964 52

[GaWx]

^Followup to text: Here’s the 0Z UKMET 84 hour map at closest approach to NC, only 135 miles while at 943 mb: sorry about the blur but a screenshot was only way I could save this (not yet out on WxBell):

[WxWatcher007]

The appearance has improved dramatically as the deep convection is now fully wrapped. 

[Windspeed]

Yeah, I'm starting to feel like I may eat my words that Erin would never be able to regain Category 5 intensity. It may still not, depending on how much it needs to bomb a pressure drop to contract that RMW enough to get there again. But deep convection is really circumventing the eyewall at present, and at this rate, all the old cloud debris in the eye should dissipate at some point this morning. If we get a warm symmetrical eye during the daylight hours today, it may well exceed my expectations. We're going to have some interesting recon flights today.

[Floydbuster]

Good grief Erin is primed to explode.

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

No doubt this is going to be a massive Category 4 hurricane in the next two days, likely similar in looks and size to Hurricane Floyd 1999.

How did Georges 1998 compare 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30c water temps working their magic. We see it in the gulf and west pac. Here we go with the Atlantic version. 

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

How did Georges 1998 compare 

This is way more intense than Georges was, especially after Georges interacted with land throughout the Caribbean. In fact, if I recall, Georges sort of underperformed in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Westward'ho. The track keeps ticking wnw. It's going to be close for obx i believe,she's making her own way tbh,a total monster of a storm currently.

[olafminesaw]

39 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Westward'ho. The track keeps ticking wnw. It's going to be close for obx i believe,she's making her own way tbh,a total monster of a storm currently.

The forecast track really hasn't shifted all that much over the last few days when taking into consideration that it would have taken a few hundred miles in shift to bring direct impacts to the coast 

Edit: by direct impacts I mean getting into the core of the storm. The impacts of beach erosion will likely be moderate to severe, which is definitely impacted by any westward shifts)

[NotSureWeather]

GEFS ensemble puts SEMA in the picture. Run is pretty west and has jumped big time over the last day. This has trended west almost this entire time. I’d guess it is gonna just keep going west until it runs into NC and then goes north to scrape Cape Cod.

[SnoSki14]

This could have some of the most substantial indirect impacts we've seen. 

It's already very large and could double by the time it nears Hatteras. Substantial coastal erosion, flooding, even TS impacts along the coast. 

[olafminesaw]

Recon flying circles in the eye, pressure in the mid to upper 930s. Back up to around 120 kts

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Recon flying circles in the eye, pressure in the mid to upper 930s. Back up to around 120 kts

Very impressive satellite shots this morning!  Lots of room for additional intensification next 12-24 hours before shear kicks in.

We'll see how strong it can get but that is one impressive satellite presentation going on both in intensity and size.

[marsman]

33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The forecast track really hasn't shifted all that much over the last few days when taking into consideration that it would have taken a few hundred miles in shift to bring direct impacts to the coast …

 

I’ve been keeping an eye on the 75W line, and don’t think the cone has crossed it until now, even if just by a pixel. 8am advisory right around the corner. 

[jbenedet]

There will be WAR pumping by the developing TC behind Erin. That influence may be another pc that was not resolved at all until today’s model runs. It’s a negligible affect if Erin makes a hard right, but an important influence if that does not occur.
 

Just another thing to monitor out of interest until Erin makes that hard right that’s being shown on the vast majority of guidance/ensemble members. If nothing else, we may see larger spread to the east/west wrt latitude in the western/slower vs eastern/faster tracks.

[olafminesaw]

Hold up...do I spy another ERC?