August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

90/61 currently 

[Santa Claus]

that is some bright summer sun

[TheClimateChanger]

Very impressive drought since July 1.

[wdrag]

Bluewave post from 5-6 days in the morning on EPS pattern and beautiful weather was right. EPS again, I'm afraid.

Erin or Fernand looks next up... from the guidance I see a recurve but maybe close enough to help reduce our Aug rainfall deficit.

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures in the greater New York City area have exceeded the guidance this afternoon, in part due to the driest start to August since 2010. Newark reached 90 for the 32nd time this year.

[LoboLeader1]

90F here.

[winterwarlock]

89 push push

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive drought since July 1.

Brown lawns across the CT Shoreline as BDR is working on their #1 driest summer on record and 6th warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Driest June 1st through August 9th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-08-09	2.34	0
2	1966-08-09	2.58	0
3	1999-08-09	2.72	0
4	1993-08-09	3.06	0
5	1964-08-09	3.37	0
6	1957-08-09	3.84	0
7	1994-08-09	3.99	0
8	1995-08-09	4.01	0
9	1955-08-09	4.08	0
10	1970-08-09	4.11	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Warmest June 1st Through August 9th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-08-09	75.3	0
2	2020-08-09	75.2	0
3	2024-08-09	75.1	0
4	1994-08-09	75.0	0
5	2008-08-09	74.4	0
6	2025-08-09	74.3	0
7	2019-08-09	74.2	0
-	2016-08-09	74.2	0
-	2012-08-09	74.2	0
-	2011-08-09	74.2	0
-	1949-08-09	74.2	0
8	2013-08-09	74.1	0
9	2022-08-09	74.0	0
-	1999-08-09	74.0	0
10	1993-08-09	73.7	0

 

CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	2.20
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	2.34
NY	BAYPORT 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	2.40
NJ	HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	2.75
NJ	RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S	CoCoRaHS	2.84
NJ	CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W	CoCoRaHS	2.84
NY	SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW	CoCoRaHS	2.95
NY	SAYVILLE 0.0 N	CoCoRaHS	2.96
CT	FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	3.01
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	3.05
CT	GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	3.11
CT	WATERFORD 2.3 S	CoCoRaHS	3.17
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N	CoCoRaHS	3.18

[psv88]

92 earlier. Way above forecast 

[uofmiami]

89.0 in Muttontown and 88.4 in Syosset for the highs. Not much above forecast this morning which was 87, as I recall.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures topped out several degrees above the guidance today, in part to abnormally dry conditions.

The region is off to its driest starrt to August since 2010. During the first 10 days of August, the combined total precipitation for Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark is 0.23". That is the lowest figure since August 1-10, 2010 when just 0.13" was measured. In stark contrast, August 1-10, 2024 had already seen 23.25" of rain. Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The ongoing warming trend will continue. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat this week. Newark already reached 90° today for the 32nd time this year. LaGuardia Airport also reached 90°. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots when the heat peaks during the Tuesday through Thursday period. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -14.51 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.173 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[winterwarlock]

90

 

First day of Heatwave  #6

[Stormlover74]

Mostly 89/90 out here in line with forecast highs

[doncat]

Briefly touched 90° today after a 59° low.

[doncat]

Since September 1st  to today, have received around 30" of rain...that's around 15" below normal for that period. That's the driest I've ever seen for almost a twelve month period.

[lee59]

91 earlier, now down to 82

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, doncat said:

Since September 1st  to today, have received around 30" of rain...that's around 15" below normal for that period. That's the driest I've ever seen for almost a twelve month period.

Very interesting and impressive stat.  Going to get worse before it gets better it seems.

[FPizz]

88.7 today