July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The crazy thing is nothing really stands out from the last year. If anything their daytime temps are cooler relative to surrounding sites than they were last summer.

Yeah when I looked last time I expected a smoking gun and saw nada. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GEFs, GEPS and EPS means all with a three run warming trend Monday and Tuesday.   GEFs in particular are sending mid upper 90s Tuesday by 18z.  

Wednesday is the hold out on a heat wave officially.  Marginal due to front or convection... From this range, timing any summer front can be even more difficult at D5 as convection processing muddles what's happening in the physical processing of the models.  Fair confidence in a pattern change - if perhaps temporarily - by mid week, though, so we're clearing the slate with a reprieve heat/dews for 2 or 3 days after Wednesday most likely. 

Beyond which skill pretty much does not exist.   Fwiw, the GEFs signals heat return, while the Euro cluster does not.  

The operational GFS was the warmest model I saw for the Mon-Wed period, making low 90, upper 90s, and around 90.

[Lava Rock]

I was thinking of you when I drove through Naples on Monday.  The waves were pretty big on Long Lake.  I'm guessing 2'-3', though I'm not a boater so I don't have a great grasp on estimating wave height.  I just know that it looked like it would have been a rough day out on the water.

Oh yeah, Monday was gusty there. Be out on long lake tomorrow. Looking stellar

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[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GEFs, GEPS and EPS means all with a three runs warming trend Monday and Tuesday.   GEFs in particular are sending mid upper 90s Tuesday by 18z.  

Wednesday is the hold out on a heat wave officially.  Marginal due to front or convection... From this range, timing any summer front cab difficult as convection processing muddles what's happening in the physical processing of the models.  The pattern is changing - if perhaps temporarily - by mid week so we'll clear the slate with a reprieve heat/dews for 2 or 3 days, beyond which skill pretty much does not exist.   Fwiw, the GEFs signal heat return, while the Euro cluster does not.  

Despite whatever pretty blues people want to find, the regime and theme is going to continue well into August which is above average and humid. Any pretty blues aren't from a change in pattern, its just the product of an airmass advecting in behind a FROPA which is then replaced with the overall theme once the heights reset. 

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The crazy thing is nothing really stands out from the last year. If anything their daytime temps are cooler relative to surrounding sites than they were last summer.

That’s crazy.  They keep popping wild highs during these 90+ days.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Despite whatever pretty blues people want to find, the regime and theme is going to continue well into August which is above average and humid. Any pretty blues aren't from a change in pattern, its just the product of an airmass advecting in behind a FROPA which is then replaced with the overall theme once the heights reset. 

I dunno.   The EPS synoptic evolution over the mid latitude continent is subtly cooler than the GEFs ... Heat's really sensitive to minor perturbations. Just the nature of atmospheric physics. Could go either way. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Despite whatever pretty blues people want to find, the regime and theme is going to continue well into August which is above average and humid. Any pretty blues aren't from a change in pattern, its just the product of an airmass advecting in behind a FROPA which is then replaced with the overall theme once the heights reset. 

Idk…the ridge retograding a bit west allowing troughs to dig into NE more frequently is a bit of a pattern change. I think we’ll definitely be AN over the next few weeks, but it doesn’t take much of a fropa (look at tomorrow) to bring dews down. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno.   The EPS synoptic evolution over the mid latitude continent is subtly cooler than the GEFs ... Heat's really sensitive to minor perturbations. Just the nature of atmospheric physics. Could go either way. 

 

Just now, dendrite said:

Idk…the ridge retograding a bit west allowing troughs to dig into NE more frequently is a bit of a pattern change. I think we’ll definitely be AN over the next few weeks, but it doesn’t take much of a fropa (look at tomorrow) to bring dews down. 

I mean yeah in that retrospect that could be a bit of a pattern change but if the ridge is just wobbling back and forth does that really count? The other aspect too is we've often seen this time of year (especially lately) where EPS gets a bit too aggressive with these changes. But yeah...these fropas will certainly mean business with a more refreshed airmass. 

But it is end of July now so we really aren't far off from beginning to see the subtle changes towards seasonal change. But I think its more likely than not the first half of August is quite warm/humid with a few breaks behind fropas. Have to watch that WAR...that will make or break probably. 

[kdxken]

84° / 72°. Perfect weather for morons.

[CoastalWx]

Lot of hatred. 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like we have some dewpoint pooling beginning to occur. May be headed in a direction of an organizing line that forms probably just south and east of Hartford. 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like we have some dewpoint pooling beginning to occur. May be headed in a direction of an organizing line that forms probably just south and east of Hartford. 

Fantastic 

[WxWatcher007]

I think today is pretty active in CT

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pretty cloudy here.  90 might not happen 

[Typhoon Tip]

Tomorrow's likely to be a couple ticks above guidance just based on experience with that sort of synoptic layout vs machine interpolations.

Front clears and DPs tank, but thickness stay above 570 S of the VT/NH border, and in the mid 560s spanning CNE.   The +PP is NW of Logan prior to 18z so it's a d-slope wind trajectory in a warm atmosphere, with purer blue sky sun searing through.  

I think the upper 70s in the MET are more like 83s.    Hugely important distinction, I know ..haha

Oh, never mind...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Heat index 105-115 on all the home stations yikes 

[dryslot]

81/74°F here under mostly cloudy skies, Not sure we will see much sun the rest of the day as its quite showery just to the north.

[SJonesWX]

83/73 with lots of clouds. Not all that hot but sure is uncomfortable

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

81/74°F here under mostly cloudy skies, Not sure we will see much sun the rest of the day as its quite showery just to the north.

She gone. Unless you count sunset.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

She gone. Unless you count sunset.

Figured as much, Fine by me, Clear it out overnight, Tomorrow looks like a great chamber day, I'll be on the big pond tomorrow down in Naples.

[dendrite]

83.3/71

Steambath with partly sunny skies

[SouthCoastMA]

83/72

[Damage In Tolland]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tomorrow's likely to be a couple ticks above guidance just based on experience with that sort of synoptic layout vs machine interpolations.

Front clears and DPs tank, but thickness stay above 570 S of the VT/NH border, and in the mid 560s spanning CNE.   The +PP is NW of Logan prior to 18z so it's a d-slope wind trajectory in a warm atmosphere, with purer blue sky sun searing through.  

I think the upper 70s in the MET are more like 83s.    Hugely important distinction, I know ..haha

Oh, never mind...

Dews will stay in the 60’s south of pike tomorrow 

[psv88]

Been in Newport, RI, staying on goat island all week. Weather has been incredible. Current 78 with a breeze 

[weatherwiz]

cold front dropping southeast, looks like the pre-frontal trough is moving into western Mass now. Today will be a southcoast ordeal (CT/RI/MA)

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

cold front dropping southeast, looks like the pre-frontal trough is moving into western Mass now. Today will be a southcoast ordeal (CT/RI/MA)

Most of our sites are 270 or greater right now, so that trough is what is really wiping out any convergence along the front.

[Torch Tiger]

E CT/RI seems to be a bullseye for some on the mesos in a few hours

[weatherwiz]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Most of our sites are 270 or greater right now, so that trough is what is really wiping out any convergence along the front.

Yup...most models really nailed that yesterday. Far southeast Mass and the Cape still have a shot to get crushed if activity can organize dropping southeast. 1200 J of DCAPE there per mesoanalysis...not too shabby. 

[weatherwiz]

A nice CU field building on satellite though but struggling to get much vertical development. Actually have some nice towers looking outside

[weatherwiz]

For pretty weak llvl winds the clouds are moving along a bit...weird. Not sure quickly but definitely notable for what mesoanalysis is showing. Must be driven by increasing winds in the upper-lower troposphere and mid-levels. Probably help yield some transient supercell structures if we can get anything good to fire