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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yes please 

I am really torn on tomorrow...CT could be ground zero for greatest risk of damaging winds but I think this is highly dependent on the dewpoints. The HRRR really mixes dewpoints out and then increases them ahead of the front across southern CT and I guess its no surprise this is where the HRRR intensifies the line. Heck even the GFS mixes them out. But looking at the llvls...I don't see dews really mixing out. I'm inclined to side with the NAM here which would argue for a big day across CT. 

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20 hours ago, kdxken said:

What have you noticed about overall tree health this season? It appears to me at least in my area to be better than the last few.

I've seen a lot of white pines that have shed last year's needles, thanks to the fungal needle disease.  June 2024 wasn't as endlessly raining like the year before, but it had AN rain.  The fungi (several species) infect the new growth in late spring and the wetter the wx, the worse the infection.  Jun2025 had about half normal rain, so I'm hoping next year's needle drop will be much lower.  I've not seen any significant problems with other species.

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Haven't looked at mesos today but CT looked pretty good for tomorrows potential action

I would think we see at slight at 1730z. If these trends hold I could eventually see an enhanced with 30% wind but not sure that would be rolled out given how poor the lapse rates are

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The features overall lack stronger forcing behind why they are there.  This creates more error, because the physics are less detectable in the grids --> therefore the processing shows increased variance. 

Blah blah ... no one gets what that means, but it results in having difficulty being consistent with the timing of the front.  They are also confusing ( apparently ..) the front with the potential cool pooling associated with convection.  This latter factor is even more incoherent and thus difficult in a weak mechanical field, because the convection triggers are in a space that is not well enough sampled.  The ambient instability is there... so false triggers can and often do take over and corrupt the results.

If there was a huge jet skirting by to the N, with a powerful front arrival, the models would nail down the timing, as well as distinguish what is the front and what is just outflow.  

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I would think we see at slight at 1730z. If these trends hold I could eventually see an enhanced with 30% wind but not sure that would be rolled out given how poor the lapse rates are

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
   damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
   Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across
   parts of the northern and central Plains.

   ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic...
   A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and
   parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40
   kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern
   Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward
   across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered
   thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing
   pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt
   of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line
   segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced
   low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and
   expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the
   region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the
   overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and
   sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. 
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