July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[HoarfrostHubb]

PVD only at +1.4F.  Seems off

[weatherwiz]

Was looking over SSTs and SSTAs in the western Atlantic and if we continue the theme of not getting cold fronts into the ATL we re going to be playing with fire come Aug/Sep. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOS +2.0F

BHO +2.8F

[HoarfrostHubb]

ORH +2.7F

All well above normal.  But I don’t think any are top 5 at this point. 

[TheClimateChanger]

34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH +2.7F

All well above normal.  But I don’t think any are top 5 at this point. 

Just an incredible torch. I'm not even worried about the rankings. A lot of these have big site discontinuities. But tons of places at +4 - even some +5s and 6s. I didn't even know it was possible to get such big departures in July.

[TheClimateChanger]

Wow, look at these minimum temperature departures! Lots of +5-7s showing up.

[TheClimateChanger]

45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

PVD only at +1.4F.  Seems off

Not saying it is the case there, but I know NOAA plays fast and loose with some of these normals. Not enough to raise what is "normal" every 10 years... I know in northern Ohio, they just decided to tack on another degree or two above the calculated 30-year means and call that "normal." Not sure if they are piloting new climate normals that are supposed to factor in climate change or what. Very misleading.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And the funniest part is there’s several posters that say it’s not been a hot humid top 3-5 hottest Julorch  despite all the actual data and facts showing it . And cite Logan’s runway in the north Atlantic as their argument.  

We're running +2.5 here, with minima closer to +5.  If the month finishes +2.5 it will rank 4th, but only a 28-year POR.  At the far longer Farmington co-op (RIP OCT 2022), +2.5 would not make top 20 (of 128).  However, temps dropped when the obs site went to a new observer 1.5 miles north of town center in Sept 1966.  For that spot, +2.5 would rank 7th of 56.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not saying it is the case there, but I know NOAA plays fast and loose with some of these normals. Not enough to raise what is "normal" every 10 years... I know in northern Ohio, they just decided to tack on another degree or two above the calculated 30-year means and call that "normal." Not sure if they are piloting new climate normals that are supposed to factor in climate change or what. Very misleading.

You can see this phenomenon in the 1991-2020 normals for Cleveland and Toledo. You can see they tack on an extra ~1F to every month at Cleveland and extra ~2F to every month at Toledo. Must be some sort of program they are planning on rolling out nationwide with the 2001-2030 normals. I guess they think if they just jack up what is normal, people won't notice how abnormal it is? If that was the goal, it doesn't seem to be working too well - as it is still almost always above normal at those locations, just not by as much as other locations nearby.

 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not saying it is the case there, but I know NOAA plays fast and loose with some of these normals. Not enough to raise what is "normal" every 10 years... I know in northern Ohio, they just decided to tack on another degree or two above the calculated 30-year means and call that "normal." Not sure if they are piloting new climate normals that are supposed to factor in climate change or what. Very misleading.

How do you know that?  Do you have what the actual new "normals" should be or did someone tell you that?

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, powderfreak said:

How do you know that?  Do you have what the actual new "normals" should be or did someone tell you that?

I just posted two examples above, where the normal is 1F and 1.9F above the 1991-2020 mean.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I mean it's mid summer.  The overall theme is it is mid summer.

There will be some relief though mixed in, which has not been happening.  2-3 days would be 2-3 days more than folks have seen lately.  Though I feel more confident up here than I do south of RT 2 and especially south of the Pike where you guys do 70 dews as soon as the flow comes out of the south in any manner.

 

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And the funniest part is there’s several posters that say it’s not been a hot humid top 3-5 hottest Julorch  despite all the actual data and facts showing it . And cite Logan’s runway in the north Atlantic as their argument.  

its 2.3 above for highs here I wouldn't call that hot.. lows are 6 above though.. but once again that is not hot.. if we were plus 6 on highs that would be a different..

[Torch Tiger]

lol

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I just posted two examples above, where the normal is 1F and 1.9F above the 1991-2020 mean.

I know but do you know what the actual normal value should be?  Maybe it is 1.0 and 1.9F?

I'm just trying to figure out how you know they are playing "loose and fast" with the normals.  Those sound like very possible amounts for mean temp increases in a decade.

[Torch Tiger]

[HoarfrostHubb]

88F here. High so far.  A 90 would be appreciated 

[SJonesWX]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

88F here. High so far.  A 90 would be appreciated 

you can have my 92. Please, please take it

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its 2.3 above for highs here I wouldn't call that hot.. lows are 6 above though.. but once again that is not hot.. if we were plus 6 on highs that would be a different..

The lows matter greatly for folks without A/C or the ability to cool off at night.  Sure, tucked into bed with the A/C humming you don't notice it... but then again sitting inside with A/C you won't notice 96F either, ha.

I still know some people up here who do not have A/C and it has been brutal.  Each year more and more schedule mini-split installations because of it.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I know but do you know what the actual normal value should be?  Maybe it is 1.0 and 1.9F?

I'm just trying to figure out how you know they are playing "loose and fast" with the normals.  Those sound like very possible amounts for mean temp increases in a decade.

Yeah they don’t just go in and decide to change the norms. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, powderfreak said:

The lows matter greatly for folks without A/C or the ability to cool off at night.  Sure, tucked into bed with the A/C humming you don't notice it... but then again sitting inside with A/C you won't notice 96F either, ha.

I still know some people up here who do not have A/C and it has been brutal.  Each year more and more schedule mini-split installations because of it.

ya I agree with that.. I would be miserable without it 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Was looking over SSTs and SSTAs in the western Atlantic and if we continue the theme of not getting cold fronts into the ATL we re going to be playing with fire come Aug/Sep. 

Maybe, but we have to play the delicate balance every year of ECONUS troughing and Atlantic ridging. 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I know but do you know what the actual normal value should be?  Maybe it is 1.0 and 1.9F?

I'm just trying to figure out how you know they are playing "loose and fast" with the normals.  Those sound like very possible amounts for mean temp increases in a decade.

I'm saying the normal was raised by that amount above and beyond what the mean of the 30-year average was observed to be. Not that the normal was increased by that amount relative to 1981-2010. It increased by the amount of the observed increase, plus an extra degree or two at those locations. Other stations also had smaller extra bumps. I don't think this was done elsewhere. Generally, the normals line up with the calculated mean.

[ineedsnow]

I just hope we can manage to get a big cane this year

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah they don’t just go in and decide to change the norms. 

Yeah, it's a very set 10-year adjustment.  Maybe on some other page or stats they have some rolling average on their own?

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its 2.3 above for highs here I wouldn't call that hot.. lows are 6 above though.. but once again that is not hot.. if we were plus 6 on highs that would be a different..

2.3 is solid though….you aren’t getting +6 here in July. Furthermore the dews have likely helped from not getting to the upper 90s. So maybe high temps aren’t insane, but the heat index sure as hell is hot. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm saying the normal was raised by that amount above and beyond what the mean of the 30-year average was observed to be. Not that the normal was increased by that amount relative to 1981-2010. It increased by the amount of the observed increase, plus an extra degree or two at those locations. Other stations also had smaller extra bumps. I don't think this was done elsewhere. Generally, the normals line up with the calculated mean.

I guess I'm not following.  Where is this normal that was raised?  So if you go into the NWS climate page for Cleveland and Toledo... the climate data says they are using the 1991 - 2020 climate normals like everyone else.

You're telling me they just added degrees to this?  Everything I'm finding right now on the F6 and climate pages show it is based on 1991 to 2020.

 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2.3 is solid though….you aren’t getting +6 here in July. Furthermore the dews have likely helped from not getting to the upper 90s. So maybe high temps aren’t insane, but the heat index sure as hell is hot. 

This. We would be highly unlikely to get a -6 in January just as much. The temps since that June heat wave may not be memorable, but what the general public constantly comments on is how the humidity regime has changed. 

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I just hope we can manage to get a big cane this year

Here or in the basin? Two very different things  

[dryslot]

Stick to swimming in Lakes, Ponds and Rivers.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe, but we have to play the delicate balance every year of ECONUS troughing and Atlantic ridging. 

yup...essentially what I was getting at but just didn't add that in