July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Downpours heading for S Wey?

Yep.  Not here in Steinwey.

[CoastalWx]

Distant thunder.

[Cyclone-68]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, more meme-able adjectives.  LOL   make it worth doom-scrolling time with quality dystopian addiction drip.  

j/k. 

I used to like the term "thundershowers"  ?    They used to have that in NOAA weather radio days of like circa 1978... I know ( dating myself...) because I was lad then, curled up with my AM radio like "normal kids" would cuddle a pet, waiting for the next pre-recorded run through of the forecast hoping and praying for a tornado watch.   

Anyway, when they said thundershowers, I knew it wasn't a big deal.  They said thunderstorms when there were elevated risk days. 

I remember Dick Albert used that word to death (thundershower)..It used to aggravate me for some reason 

[Cyclone-68]

Missing the core about 10 miles southeast just like last year. Since it’s the only thunderstorm in the state currently I shouldn’t complain I suppose 

[CoastalWx]

Quick 3 min downpour. Lets get the dew to 80.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Quick 3 min downpour. Lets get the dew to 80.

general line of TCU punching the alto stratus gunk lined up along the southern horizon, connecting your downpours to some training in CT.  Obs show DPs are 75 to 80 S of that line, and 68 to 72 up my way.  It's a modest theta-e gradient but the interface is collocated with convection.   Also, temps generally 82 to 86 in the soup, and 88 to 92 up here where it's modestly drier.  

[Typhoon Tip]

models appear to smear the remnants of Chantal along and S of that gradient 

[Damage In Tolland]

Downpours missing and sliding NW . Dews 76-77..Feels so nice 

[codfishsnowman]

Omg its so humid out....I think we're gonna hit 90 at CEF

[powderfreak]

Been 91F up here for 3 hours.

Max is 92F so far.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

ehh I don't think it's fair to say the system underperformed. I am assuming you are referring to July 3? Based on the reports received and on the SPC page, the watch certainly verified. Remember, there is nothing in the definition of a watch which measures or accounts for how widespread wind criteria/hail will be. The definition just relates to having ingredients favorable for thunderstorms to become strong to severe. 

But in terms of the rainfall, when it comes to thunderstorms things can become extremely localized and there just aren't enough reporting stations to fully capture what can/may be ongoing at a local level. For example, one town could get slammed under a thunderstorm and get 0.50"...0.75"...even 2" of rain while a town or two over just on the edge barely get 1/10th of an inch. 

Sometimes too with thunderstorms, it isn't about how much rain falls as much as it is about how much rain falls in an x amount of time. 0.75" of rain total may not be much but if that is falling in like 30 minutes...that could lead to some brief problems. 

All true.  but . . .   My impressions came from the PoP being 70%, forecast precip .10-.25 and .25-.50 depending on location plus each amount included "more in thunderstorms".  Only 5 of the 102 cocorahs reports had more than 0.41" while the median report was 0.11".

[Snowedin]

Quick boomie with a much needed downpour just blew through..now the steam bath really gets going!

[HoarfrostHubb]

High of 84F today.  Dropping with the minor showers we are having. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

All true.  but . . .   My impressions came from the PoP being 70%, forecast precip .10-.25 and .25-.50 depending on location plus each amount included "more in thunderstorms".  Only 5 of the 102 cocorahs reports had more than 0.41" while the median report was 0.11".

I think precipitation amounts (as well as sky cover, wind, temperature) are just populated from a grid and there probably isn't much human manipulation in those point-and-click forecasts. I wish I could remember all this better because oceanstatewx has explained all this in great detail several times how this process works  . I think this is why you'll often see forecasts saying "mostly sunny" when it ends up being filtered sun behind high clouds...I know at least NBM does better with this but I believe MOS won't report or forecast clouds above like 10,000 feet (or 12,000 feet)? 

But for QPF amounts with convection, I would assume in the grid its just averaging whatever is falling within that grid and that's how it determines the ranges? But I also think oceanstate has said that the wording used in the forecasts is based on QPF totals and visibility? So showers versus heavy rain wording will be tied into the QPF range and with snow light versus say heavy is tied into rate/visibility. 

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

High of 84F today.  Dropping with the minor showers we are having. 

85 here today.. currently 84/70

[512high]

Interesting day on the NH Seacoast, around 1130am was working on a ocean property Rye, NH very near the Portsmouth line, temp was 72 F with a nice cool breeze, was in heaven for about 45 minutes.

 

Next stop about, two miles south more into Rye, ocean front home, temp was now 86F on the truck thermometer and humid as crap! WTF

 

At least there was talent to look at!

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, 512high said:

Interesting day on the NH Seacoast, around 1130am was working on a ocean property Rye, NH very near the Portsmouth line, temp was 72 F with a nice cool breeze, was in heaven for about 45 minutes.

 

Next stop about, two miles south more into Rye, ocean front home, temp was now 86F on the truck thermometer and humid as crap! WTF

 

At least there was talent to look at!

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think precipitation amounts (as well as sky cover, wind, temperature) are just populated from a grid and there probably isn't much human manipulation in those point-and-click forecasts. I wish I could remember all this better because oceanstatewx has explained all this in great detail several times how this process works  . I think this is why you'll often see forecasts saying "mostly sunny" when it ends up being filtered sun behind high clouds...I know at least NBM does better with this but I believe MOS won't report or forecast clouds above like 10,000 feet (or 12,000 feet)? 

But for QPF amounts with convection, I would assume in the grid its just averaging whatever is falling within that grid and that's how it determines the ranges? But I also think oceanstate has said that the wording used in the forecasts is based on QPF totals and visibility? So showers versus heavy rain wording will be tied into the QPF range and with snow light versus say heavy is tied into rate/visibility. 

Humans definitely edit the grids over the top of things like the NBM, but it's increasingly becoming more dominated by NBM guidance as staffing gets worse and worse. 

[SJonesWX]

86/75. Yuck. at least we had a bit of a breeze to make it a little easier to be outside

[Snowedin]

This is heaven..embracing every moment of the atmospheric sauna while the mosquitoes latch on to my ultra manly scent! Ya love to see it..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at some of those river gauges the rises were unimaginable...so many gauges that literally shot up like 20 feet in less than an hour. Absolutely horrific. 

Crazy fast!

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’ve been hanging at the town swimming area for the past hour and the breeze with mostly cloudy conditions is delightful. 84°

 

 

[CoastalWx]

It is tropical out 

[codfishsnowman]

These dews are insane

I hope he's happy up there on the mountain. Doesn't really need to be much more than 80 when the dews are this high

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

These dews are insane

I hope he's happy up there on the mountain. Doesn't really need to be much more than 80 when the dews are this high

Everyone is happy , healthy , and excited . Dews are what matters. Most folks would prefer 80/76

[dendrite]

81.1/74

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everyone is happy , healthy , and excited . Dews are what matters. Most folks would prefer 80/76

Nice dew!  

[dendrite]

Breathe it in

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Breathe it in

She’s a howdy dewdy dandy 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She’s a howdy dewdy dandy 

Should change his handle to Dewndrite