July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[TWCCraig]

0.53" over the past 24 hours. 2.10" since July 1st which isn't bad considering the average at ISP for the entire month of July is under 3". No where near as dry as the last few summers

[dmillz25]

Got a random shower right over my area lol

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The 2025-26 ENSO thread covers this quite a bit. I agree and it’s been documented by Bluewave especially how this marine heatwave east of Japan ruins our winter storm setups. And looks like record heat there again. Hoping for an active typhoon season with lots of recurves into that area, maybe that’ll help a little but my hope for winter is very low with that warm water still there. It hypercharges the Pacific Jet which is the opposite of what gets it done here. 

Ok I'll go there... and drop it from here.  I didnt get that warm sense from a post on MAP group. 

[bluewave]

This has been one of the more impressive SST rebounds that we have seen from the spring into the summer. There was a significant cold pool to our east from the winter into the spring due to the record westerly flow leading to upwelling. This pattern has reversed with the persistent onshore flow and warmth this summer. The bouy east of Barnegat, NJ has a 81° water temperature today.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091

Water Temperature (WTMP):

81.0 °F

 

[winterwarlock]

87/78/100

[Nibor]

Hazy day.

[Wannabehippie]

89 degrees, 57% RH. that is about a 72 dp. So gross out.

[nycwinter]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the more impressive SST rebounds that we have seen from the spring into the summer. There was a significant cold pool to our east from the winter into the spring due to the record westerly flow leading to upwelling. This pattern has reversed with the persistent onshore flow and warmth this summer. The bouy east of Barnegat, NJ has a 81° water temperature today.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091

Water Temperature (WTMP):

81.0 °F

 

that what usually happens during summer months..

[psv88]

Rain showers around all day today. Never cleared. High of 85. These showers only added up to 0.07, but the middle of the island had another cloudy and miserable day. 

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

that what usually happens during summer months..

of course the water warms, but it was below normal and now much above-that's an impressive swing.

[nycwinter]

i was watching the weather on news 4 ny and they said dewpoint friday will be in the low 50's and saturday in the upper 40's is that true?

[uofmiami]

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i was watching the weather on news 4 ny and they said dewpoint friday will be in the low 50's and saturday in the upper 40's is that true?

[Brian5671]

Wow nice....that's a welcome change for a couple of days.

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wow nice....that's a welcome change for a couple of days.

Looks to be a brief break of one day only, but it'll be welcomed for sure.

[nycwinter]

On 7/10/2025 at 11:43 PM, nycwinter said:

looking forward to the end of next week when a legitimate cold front will hopefully pass through with a reduction in humidity at least one can hope..

SnoSKi14 don't see that 

[donsutherland1]

Following yesterday's deluge, today was a much drier day. Some showers or thundershowers could return to the region tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. 

It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through into the middle and upper 80s. The heat will likely peak on Thursday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +2.09 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.295 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out @ 88 today. DP & RH didn't help.

Dew Point

72 F

Humidity

65 %

[Big Jims Videos]

The ocean temp at Point Pleasant Beach yesterday afternoon was close to 80 degrees. Went for a swim after work. Warmest I've ever felt this time of year.  Great flip from the endless upwellings we experienced last summer. Also a bunch of cow nose rays scared folks out of the water before I got there as folks thought they were sharks. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The ocean temp at Point Pleasant Beach yesterday afternoon was close to 80 degrees. Went for a swim after work. Warmest I've ever felt this time of year.  Great flip from the endless upwellings we experienced last summer. Also a bunch of cow nose rays scared folks out of the water before I got there as folks thought they were sharks. 

All the gaurds I work with and we have about 1000 years between us are saying it’s the warmest it’s been this early. Usually you get a day or two in the high 70s in August. Unless we see a reversal to strong westerly’s, sustained low 80s are possible in August. 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

As long as we're posting random days here is next week Tuesday and Wednesday:

[winterwarlock]

Hit a very late high of 90 with a rare full sun afternoon  for this summer

 

4th heatwave will be achieved with another 90 tomorrow

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

As long as we're posting random days here is next week Tuesday and Wednesday:

keep hope alive

[Wannabehippie]

58 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The ocean temp at Point Pleasant Beach yesterday afternoon was close to 80 degrees. Went for a swim after work. Warmest I've ever felt this time of year.  Great flip from the endless upwellings we experienced last summer. Also a bunch of cow nose rays scared folks out of the water before I got there as folks thought they were sharks. 

Are cow nose rays common at point pleasant beach?

[wdrag]

 No new thread til st least 730AM Wednesday.  Possibly none till Saturday 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

80° SSTs now just east of NJ.

15 E Barnegat Li 1630            78 80  

we're primed up for tropical season

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the more impressive SST rebounds that we have seen from the spring into the summer. There was a significant cold pool to our east from the winter into the spring due to the record westerly flow leading to upwelling. This pattern has reversed with the persistent onshore flow and warmth this summer. The bouy east of Barnegat, NJ has a 81° water temperature today.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091

Water Temperature (WTMP):

81.0 °F

 

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

Hazy day.

nice that looks like a live cam lol

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Are cow nose rays common at point pleasant beach?

This time of year their common in NY NJ they eat clams,crabs and wreak havoc wherever they go. They suck!

[Brian5671]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

Nope-the west winds push the warm water OTS and cooler water upwells from below....