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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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Wantage NJ 4sw... (8 s of High Point NJ) 347 PM report. Had about .36" in 11 minutes ending around 333 PM. Max G 25 MPH (higher than the previous 140PM warned storm). Very little T if any in this 323PM batch. Total for this afternoon now1.21", one tenth inch less than the automated Ambient gage.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How are these forecasters so awful and so wrong all the time, they even bust on sky conditions for 1-2 day forecasts? It was supposed to be mostly cloudy with rain.  The last two days have been mostly sunny here and today it's at 95 here on a southerly *sea breeze*.  Normally you'd see an early high around 90-91 today with temperatures falling into the upper 80s in the afternoon on a due south wind, but today it's stayed up around 95. It's the first 95+ day since the late June triple digit temperatures.

What models have been you been looking at? They all had 90s today with very high dewpoints. Followed by afternoon thunderstorms. Florida weather means thunderstorms one minute and the sun coming out soon after. Not some kind of washout. Very heavy rain in a short amount of time. We need organized tropical systems for a complete washout this time of year. 

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Today was the hottest day of the month, so far. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 94°
Islip: 92°
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK Airport: 93°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98°
Newark: 100°

Today was also the fourth time this year that all seven locations record highs of 90° or above.

Parts of the region could experience a strong thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or heavy downpours.

Tomorrow will turn somewhat cooler. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 80s. 

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. A thunderstorm is possible through at least Thursday.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +3.38 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.234 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal). 

 

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2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I am ignorant of guitar care, except I had one low grade acoustic crack, (and additionally I took an ovation on a camping trip and the bridge broke off overnight when it got down near freezing).  An electric guitar is sensitive to humidity as well, as far as splitting or cracking?

I assume not as much as acoustic, but I still would be cautious even just for the sake of the finish being affected.

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What models have been you been looking at? They all had 90s today with very high dewpoints. Followed by afternoon thunderstorms. Florida weather means thunderstorms one minute and the sun coming out soon after. Not some kind of washout. Very heavy rain in a short amount of time. We need organized tropical systems for a complete washout this time of year. 

No I mean sky conditions, it's been mostly sunny here the last two days (even now.)

I don't even see any clouds in the sky.

Near 90 was the forecast for today, but no one had mid and upper 90s like we're seeing right now. It's the hottest day since late June.

Not a drop of rain yet-- didn't get anything yesterday either.

 

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23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the hottest day of the month, so far. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 94°
Islip: 92°
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK Airport: 93°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98°
Newark: 100°

Today was also the fourth time this year that all seven locations record highs of 90° or above.

Parts of the region could experience a strong thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or heavy downpours.

Tomorrow will turn somewhat cooler. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 80s. 

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. A thunderstorm is possible through at least Thursday.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +3.38 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.234 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal). 

 

The third hottest day of the year here so far.

EWR has reached 100+ 4 days so far, Don?

This is our third 95+ day (the other two days were 100+).

Today was the hottest day of the month, so far. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 94°
Islip: 92°
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK Airport: 93°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98°
Newark: 100°

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The third hottest day of the year here so far.

EWR has reached 100+ 4 days so far, Don?

This is our third 95+ day (the other two days were 100+).

Today was the hottest day of the month, so far. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 94°
Islip: 92°
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK Airport: 93°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98°
Newark: 100°

Yes, today was Newark’s fourth such day this year.

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