July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 90F/DP 73/RH 66% 

[FPizz]

.36" so far in the 10 minute downpour with thunder.  

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

.36" so far in the 10 minute downpour with thunder.  

Nothing here so far

[winterwarlock]

91 high with peak index of 105

 

Tomorrow  imby I will record my 3rd heatwave of the season

[winterwx21]

What a steambath out there. I was outside cutting up a couple big limbs that had fallen in my yard from the severe storm on Thursday. Completely drenched just like I had gone for a run. Feels terrible out there. 

Looking at radar I see a downpour is getting close. 

[bluewave]

Dewpoints getting close to 80° here on the CT Shoreline.

 

New Haven      PTSUNNY   85  78  80 S8G21     29.97F HX  96

[winterwx21]

Downpour missing just a few miles to the east. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Downpour missing just a few miles to the east. 

Yeah I'm up in Warren looks like about to pour

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I'm up in Warren looks like about to pour

Yeah I see part of Somerset County is getting it pretty good. I'm in between here with the downpours missing to the west in Somerset County and just slightly to the east in Middlesex County. 

[Brian5671]

HRRR was overdone but it was correct showing NJ getting the action today

[LoboLeader1]

35 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

91 high with peak index of 105

 

Tomorrow  imby I will record my 3rd heatwave of the season

Anyone liking this swamp ass wx has a few bolts loose.

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I see part of Somerset County is getting it pretty good. I'm in between here with the downpours missing to the west in Somerset County and just slightly to the east in Middlesex County. 

I got .50" at my house, mostly done for now.

[winterwarlock]

13 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Anyone liking this swamp ass wx has a few bolts loose.

I resemble that remark

[lee59]

I hope Long Island can get some rain before tomorrow night is over.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I hope Long Island can get some rain before tomorrow night is over.

The models have better coverage of the storms tomorrow.

[lee59]

Just now, bluewave said:

The models have better coverage of the storms tomorrow.

I hope so, we keep missing and N.J. and Hudson Valley keep getting.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Argentina was the place to go recently to avoid all the record heat around the world.

 

Windhoek Nambia broke their all time record low 2 times over for June in a span of a week but its fairly mild now in SA and southern Africa after it had been cold for a couple of weeks 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be very warm with highs reaching the upper 80s to perhaps 90° in New York City and the lower and middle 90s in Newark. Wednesday through Friday will be turn cooler with increased clouds. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to near 80° through Friday. Each day could feature the risk of some heavy thunderstorms. 

The rainfall amount could be enhanced somewhat by some of the moisture from Chantals remnants.

No widespread excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -4.00 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.160 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal). 

 

[steve392]

Sussex and NW Passaic counties for the win again.  Just can't catch a break for rain now in se Bergen County. 

[Santa Claus]

i don’t think this is physiologically true but 80/78 feels worse to me than 102/80.  my body is a nucleation point, i am becoming a giant drop of water.  i am setting my apple watch workout to Outdoor Swim

[gravitylover]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I hope so, we keep missing and N.J. and Hudson Valley keep getting.

I got over 2" that one day last week, I wasn't here for it, but other than that I've gotten it a few hundredths at a time. Today is at .1 (so far).

[SnoSki14]

It's a steambath out there. The right trigger and we could easily see massive flooding 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a steambath out there. The right trigger and we could easily see massive flooding 

True-any storm will be slow moving...

[Snowlover11]

bust

[Cfa]

It’s wild how unremarkable 80-degree dews have become in recent years, they’re about as run-of-the-mill as a high in the low 90’s at this point.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

I got .50" at my house, mostly done for now.

Not bad. I would've liked that amount to water the vegetable garden. Hopefully I'll have better luck here tomorrow. As others have pointed out, the coverage of storms should be better tomorrow. 

[steve392]

Everything dying out.  So much for that training rain :/

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

I hope so, we keep missing and N.J. and Hudson Valley keep getting.

Which happens 9 out of 10 setups in the summer. 

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Everything dying out.  So much for that training rain :/

never buy into the "week of rain" hype.   almost never happens this time of year

[winterwx21]

34 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Everything dying out.  So much for that training rain :/

Not a surprise that HRRR was way off with the huge amounts for today. That model is very inconsistent, and it seems to be wrong more often than it's right.