May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

There's zero chance that type of full evacuation takes place in the U.S.  No way a geologist is convincing a town to get out entirely.

 Couldn’t even happen in Dante’s Peak…barely but not really 

[H2Otown_WX]

8 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

the good ol' days in Tolland...

 

 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

wild story out of Switzerland. This was not too far from where I was.

I can’t stop looking at it, but this glacial landslide is nuts.

The fact everyone willingly evacuated swiftly days prior is some strong trust in science.

[mreaves]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am early to middle June every year.

I leav for a week in PEI next Friday. Probably not going to get to install until I get back. 

[WinterSnow]

8 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

the good ol' days in Tolland...

 

In my house, any husband who didn't call yesterday like he promised would be sent packing. 

I don't mess around with not having air conditioning. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

There's zero chance that type of full evacuation takes place in the U.S.  No way a geologist is convincing a town to get out entirely.

 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

 Couldn’t even happen in Dante’s Peak…barely but not really 

Maybe, but in fairness people evacuate (or not) based on complex factors and circumstances. 

[kdxken]

"Looking at Tuesday through the end of the week there remains a good deal of uncertainty with the mid-level pattern. Model guidance is not handling the evolution of the departing weekend system. As the cut-off low becomes more of an open trough in eastern Canada, isn`t able to easily move eastward because of the mid-level ridge across the North Atlantic. To the west of southern New England an amplifying mid-level ridge spills northeastward. Does it shift the trough out to sea or does it pinch off the trough into another closed low. If we can shift it out to sea likely a rather nice forecast with dry weather and warming temperatures. The other scenario, it becomes a closed low/cut-off and is stuck east of New England and may result in cooler temperatures and spotty shower activity. As there is a good deal of uncertainty, leaned heavily on the NBM. Which is leaning toward the first outcome, dry conditions and summer warmth. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s."

You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?" 

 

[CoastalWx]

Euro says cutoff back north again. Meh.

[dendrite]

GFS is still trying to push 90° in S NH Wed. GGEM is hot too.

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Maybe, but in fairness people evacuate (or not) based on complex factors and circumstances. 

I would imagine after several landslides and seeing that plug in the upper valley everyone would get out fast. The before and after is nutz

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro says cutoff back north again. Meh.

Looks COCY

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I can’t stop looking at it, but this glacial landslide is nuts.

The fact everyone willingly evacuated swiftly days prior is some strong trust in science.

Quite remarkable. Luckily a relatively small glacier but none less still quite destructive and life altering for many.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro says cutoff back north again. Meh.

Very summery with 60s and 70s all week next week 

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Very summery with 60s and 70s all week next week 

62-88 for highs.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

31 minutes ago, kdxken said:

62-88 for highs.

This weekend looks like crap 50s and 60s with showers Saturday then chilly 55-65 Sunday and mostly cloudy ASOUT

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

GFS is still trying to push 90° in S NH Wed. GGEM is hot too.

Euro all alone. Uh oh

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This weekend looks like crap 50s and 60s with showers Saturday then chilly 55-65 Sunday and mostly cloudy ASOUT

Tomorrow should 65-70 with sun breaks in afternoon and humid . 65- 68 Sunday 

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, kdxken said:

62-88 for highs.

Correct 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1928221853883027873?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow should 65-70 with sun breaks in afternoon and humid . 65- 68 Sunday 

60s and humid doesn’t feel summery 

[weathafella]

Hopefully gfs wins with full summer for a few days next week 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

60s and humid doesn’t feel summery 

Agreed but it feels moist

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agreed but it feels moist

Sick of the cool humid days.. These temps below 65 and high humidity days are killing my gym floors.. too cool for AC so the floors just stay moist all day with it being a garage gym.. 

[CoastalWx]

Someone in NW CT to western MA and SW NH is going to get inches of rain.

[SJonesWX]

58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Sick of the cool humid days.. These temps below 65 and high humidity days are killing my gym floors.. too cool for AC so the floors just stay moist all day with it being a garage gym.. 

you need a dehumidifier

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone in NW CT to western MA and SW NH is going to get inches of rain.

Yay. 

Local farmers are already complaining about powder molds and stunted growth with some vegetables.  

If I was growing commercially I would definitely want greenhouses or hoop houses.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

you need a dehumidifier

Ya I'm not sure how well it will work with the 20' ceilings and 4,000 sqft of open space

[weatherwiz]

WTH

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, the Euro's dramatically yawing between synoptic concepts wrt that pinch low formulation... Doesn't lend to confidence it knows what to do, when the 12z run just yesterday morning had zero impact from that feature along with +2 SD heat intrusion to our region, and then the immediate new 00z had that thing completely shutting it all down and a 0 SD heat intrusion...

The GGEM has that pinch low too, but it conserves just enough progressive w-e aspect to formulate it far enough away ( and moving E) to not be a factor here mid week. Believe it or not...it may be a compromise and better solution ... at least through 144 hours.

The GFS is even more so progressed away with it.  However, I hate the run overall.   Longer read:   It seems to be fighting the non-linearity of the teleconnection signal - which is ridging over eastern N/A's mid latitudes.  It's got modest height anomalies, but it won't expand them into the correlation extent - meaning it's low balling it. It's drilling the westerlies through the top of the ridge latitudes, limiting the ridge expanse. Meanwhile,  I'm noticing the CAG low genesis ( TC ) down there, which is a feature not uncommon to the -PNA summer, whence ridging formulates over the eastern conus this creates favorable genesis period in the Caribbean gyre region at low latitudes underneath.  Near the Yucatan Pen and Bay/Camp. etc.  So It's like the GFS is seeing the the whole scope, but is shirking the ridge part of it.   The GFS has about .1% w-e stretched bias at all times ( sarcasm but true-ish) at all times - definitely used to, but has improved with that progressivity bias some over the years of upgrading the model.  This strikes me as possibly interfering just enough albeit subtle, nonetheless.  

 

 

[jbenedet]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone in NW CT to western MA and SW NH is going to get inches of rain.

Yea. This is obvious. How many inches?

 

 

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, the Euro's dramatically yawing between synoptic concepts wrt that pinch low formulation... Doesn't lend to confidence it knows what to do, when the 12z run just yesterday morning had zero impact from that feature along with +2 SD heat intrusion to our region, and then the immediate new 00z had that thing completely shutting it all down and a 0 SD heat intrusion...

The GGEM has that pinch low too, but it conserves just enough progressive w-e aspect to formulate it far enough away ( and moving E) to not be a factor here mid week. Believe it or not...it may be a compromise and better solution ... at least through 144 hours.

The GFS is even more so progressed away with it.  However, I hate the run overall.   Longer read:   It seems to be fighting the non-linearity of the teleconnection signal - which is ridging over eastern N/A's mid latitudes.  It's got modest height anomalies, but it won't expand them into the correlation extent - meaning it's low balling it. It's drilling the westerlies through the top of the ridge latitudes, limiting the ridge expanse. Meanwhile,  I'm noticing the CAG low genesis ( TC ) down there, which is a feature not uncommon to the -PNA summer, whence ridging formulates over the eastern conus this creates favorable genesis period in the Caribbean gyre region at low latitudes underneath.  Near the Yucatan Pen and Bay/Camp. etc.  So It's like the GFS is seeing the the whole scope, but is shirking the ridge part of it.   The GFS has about .1% w-e stretched bias at all times ( sarcasm but true-ish) at all times - definitely used to, but has improved with that progressivity bias some over the years of upgrading the model.  This strikes me as possibly interfering just enough albeit subtle, nonetheless.  

 

 

"Longer read:"

Do you have another variety in your toolbox?