2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[Snowcrazed71]

So... I do know there has been some snow at the highest elevations of Vermont.... But this system seems like it could be our first region wide snowfall..... At least as of now (not a forecast, but bothe the GFS & the Euro have this system for 11/7-8 timeframe)

https://x.com/Lclimateguy/status/1982046984589463849?t=jIhEOUA4tOpT0f5OArK1UA&s=19

[MJO812]

DT Preliminary Winter Outlook

[MJO812]

Steve D winter forecast
https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2025-through-february-2026/

[dendrite]

40-80” here would be terrible to near average.

[weathafella]

Steve D needs to brush up on his knowledge of climatology 

[dryslot]

40-80" is a pretty big spread.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Lol 20-40" equates to near to above normal snowfall in interior SNE including ORH on that map from Steve D.  He's obviously more focused on his area.  

[mahk_webstah]

It is always better to forecast %above or below normal vs specific amounts over such a diverse area

[Hazey]

Looks like he’s calling for average to below average snowfall for most regions. Seems like a prudent call at this stage.

[WinterWolf]

12 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Lol 20-40" equates to near to above normal snowfall in interior SNE including ORH on that map from Steve D.  He's obviously more focused on his area.  

Ya, For Interior SNE…20-40 is below normal. But his zone there is huge. So for some areas to the southwest maybe that’s accurate…otherwise he’s off. Lol. 

[leo2000]

The big reason why I am optimistic about this upcoming winter is the north Pacific warm blob. The last time this happened back in in 2013 we all know what followed. 

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, leo2000 said:

The big reason why I am optimistic about this upcoming winter is the north Pacific warm blob. The last time this happened back in in 2013 we all know what followed. 

The 2025 rendition of the warm Pacific may signify something else.  

Not directing this at you, per se, but to the general audience. The warm Pacific "blob" as it's called is not forcing patterns - nor subsequently constructing the winter pattern biases. 

The blob exists due to a long duration applied wind stresses, distributing and redistributing warm surface mass in the ongoing quasi-coupled atmospheric-oceanic system.  That forcing disributes warmth vs upwelling and cooling ..etc, over time,  and it is a shallow thermal distribution response ( SSTs ).  We've spent time explaining this in the past, and to the same group of individuals that frequent this social media ... but given some time ... we're back to reading posts that sound like the blob is going to cause the winter pattern? - false if that's the thinking. 

What needs to be done is a study that correlates the blob occurrences in both space, time, and amplitude, against the preceding hemisphere's synoptic footprint.   It's far in a way more likely that 2013's Pacific thermal layout/phenomenon is connected to a pattern that was going on, and led to both:  creating the blob,  while also ensuing the Chicago record cold that winter.  The pattern created both.   Not the other way around.

That said, there may be some predictive usefulness in using the warm vs cool Pacific distribution whence any such correlation can be assessed. 

In 2025, the Pacific looks similar to 2013 - which means, given the above facets, there has likely been similarities in the distribution of surface oceanic stressing patterns to date.  But here's the problem: Does it persist?   That's the key question.  Unfortunately, nothing about 2013 vs 2025 predicts that very clearly.   Having nothing else to really go on at that point, ...yeah, it's not unreasonable to look for that persistence - but there really shouldn't be any presumption there, either. For one, different synoptic variances may lend to similar distributions, where given both warm years, one variance lends to a 2013's winter pattern, but the other does not. So if-so variances would also need to be defined. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is a very linear approach so tfwiw - but to help elucidate the concern in using 2013 as analog, let's look at the 2013 WPO, and compare it to recency.  Below on the left is the 2013-2014 WPO ( provided by CPC), and on the right, 2024-present

2013    1   0.07		2024    3   0.97
2013    2   1.49		2024    4   0.73
2013    3   0.59		2024    5  -0.27
2013    4  -1.86		2024    6  -1.29
2013    5  -1.13		2024    7  -0.77
2013    6  -0.47		2024    8   1.06
2013    7  -0.88		2024    9   1.38
2013    8  -0.17		2024   10   0.91
2013    9   1.93		2024   11  -0.20
2013   10  -0.09		2024   12  -0.33
2013   11  -0.04		2025    1   1.02
2013   12  -2.01		2025    2   0.32
2014    1   0.54		2025    3   0.77
2014    2  -1.37		2025    4  -0.83
2014    3  -0.43		2025    5  -0.49
2014    4  -1.36		2025    6   1.27
2014    5  -0.85		2025    7  -0.58
2014    6  -0.30		2025    8  -0.31
2014    7  -1.63		2025    9   1.22
2014    8  -0.77
2014    9  -1.23
2014   10  -0.32
2014   11   0.13
2014   12  -0.13

 

graphically ...

 

What sticks out is that the WPO was predominately negative in the 2013-2014 period, but has been predominately positive lately.  That particular index is quite important as it loads the Pacific ... We can root it ultimately back to Asia for that matter.  All that, and also feed-backs  (constructive or destructive interference ) from the MJO frequency... which also has at least a say in the ENSO distribution... Quagmire that ultimately giggidies or glorifies our winter tendencies over N/A.  

But, that is a big difference in that particularly circulation mode/manifold comparing back whence to now ... So it really - for me - adds to the uncertainty if not doubt.

[FXWX]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 2025 rendition of the warm Pacific may signify something else.  

Not directing this at you, per se, but to the general audience. The warm Pacific "blob" as it's called is not forcing patterns - nor subsequently constructing the winter pattern biases. 

The blob exists due to a long duration applied wind stresses, distributing and redistributing warm surface mass in the ongoing quasi-coupled atmospheric-oceanic system.  That forcing disributes warmth vs upwelling and cooling ..etc, over time,  and it is a shallow thermal distribution response ( SSTs ).  We've spent time explaining this in the past, and to the same group of individuals that frequent this social media ... but given some time ... we're back to reading posts that sound like the blob is going to cause the winter pattern? - false if that's the thinking. 

What needs to be done is a study that correlates the blob occurrences in both space, time, and amplitude, against the preceding hemisphere's synoptic footprint.   It's far in a way more likely that 2013's Pacific thermal layout/phenomenon is connected to a pattern that was going on, and led to both:  creating the blob,  while also ensuing the Chicago record cold that winter.  The pattern created both.   Not the other way around.

That said, there may be some predictive usefulness in using the warm vs cool Pacific distribution whence any such correlation can be assessed. 

In 2025, the Pacific looks similar to 2013 - which means, given the above facets, there has likely been similarities in the distribution of surface oceanic stressing patterns to date.  But here's the problem: Does it persist?   That's the key question.  Unfortunately, nothing about 2013 vs 2025 predicts that very clearly.   Having nothing else to really go on at that point, ...yeah, it's not unreasonable to look for that persistence - but there really shouldn't be any presumption there, either. For one, different synoptic variances may lend to similar distributions, where given both warm years, one variance lends to a 2013's winter pattern, but the other does not. So if-so variances would also need to be defined. 

1,000%

[MJO812]

[WxWatcher007]

We take. I think. 
 

[TheMainer]

If we can avoid the 3 inch rain Grinch on Christmas I'm all for it, until we hit Christmas day I'm not getting my hopes up.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/30/2025 at 11:00 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a very linear approach so tfwiw - but to help elucidate the concern in using 2013 as analog, let's look at the 2013 WPO, and compare it to recency.  Below on the left is the 2013-2014 WPO ( provided by CPC), and on the right, 2024-present

2013    1   0.07		2024    3   0.97
2013    2   1.49		2024    4   0.73
2013    3   0.59		2024    5  -0.27
2013    4  -1.86		2024    6  -1.29
2013    5  -1.13		2024    7  -0.77
2013    6  -0.47		2024    8   1.06
2013    7  -0.88		2024    9   1.38
2013    8  -0.17		2024   10   0.91
2013    9   1.93		2024   11  -0.20
2013   10  -0.09		2024   12  -0.33
2013   11  -0.04		2025    1   1.02
2013   12  -2.01		2025    2   0.32
2014    1   0.54		2025    3   0.77
2014    2  -1.37		2025    4  -0.83
2014    3  -0.43		2025    5  -0.49
2014    4  -1.36		2025    6   1.27
2014    5  -0.85		2025    7  -0.58
2014    6  -0.30		2025    8  -0.31
2014    7  -1.63		2025    9   1.22
2014    8  -0.77
2014    9  -1.23
2014   10  -0.32
2014   11   0.13
2014   12  -0.13

 

graphically ...

 

What sticks out is that the WPO was predominately negative in the 2013-2014 period, but has been predominately positive lately.  That particular index is quite important as it loads the Pacific ... We can root it ultimately back to Asia for that matter.  All that, and also feed-backs  (constructive or destructive interference ) from the MJO frequency... which also has at least a say in the ENSO distribution... Quagmire that ultimately giggidies or glorifies our winter tendencies over N/A.  

But, that is a big difference in that particularly circulation mode/manifold comparing back whence to now ... So it really - for me - adds to the uncertainty if not doubt.

Absolutely. This tendency is something I pound right out of the gate in my write up.

[Typhoon Tip]

I wrote about that back on September 9, either in this thread or somewhere.  If this winter was going to perform - imho - it would more likely be an early blocking tendency and an early loaded affair. I may have even mused if memory servers, that it may not return post the canonical January thaw.  February Lilacs. Low confidence at the time, mainly in deference to the fact that it was  2.5 months away... gee ya think.  Anyway, so I don't have a  problem with Webb's ideas there.  In fact, the recent -NAO and low amplitude +PNA observed 7 to 10 days ago could really be argued as heralding that. ...  and now we're doing it again ...with a new -delta( AO/NAO) emerging.   

As an aside, the problem with the recent temperatures ... there's some relativity going on doing a marvelous job at hiding the obviousness of a colder pattern. We're registering daily averages that range from +decimals to +2s in a pattern that would be -3s, 30 years ago.  Compounding further, generational acclimation, colloquially referred to as 'boiling a frog' is putting us in a physical situation where we are now biased to feel a mere +1 is cold autumn, when in fact it is positive.  I see these two distinct relativity's sort of moving past one another without much realization that either is happening in ambit discussion ... interesting.

Back here on Earth, as snow enthusiasts, ... we may want to watch the 10-13 period of time.   Mentioned above, there's a new -D(AO/NAO) emerging in the ensembles, both in the spatial synoptics, but also numerically. The NAO component so far favoring the western limb of the domain, too.  The correction vector is pointed S over mid latitude/E N/A.  In simple terms, that means non-cutting lows and/or tending to correct S in the guidance over time.  Meanwhile, there is sufficient cold/lower thickness spread out across S-SE Canada, due in part to antecedent SPV whirling over the E Canadian shield over the next week.  So we'll see where that goes.  

[CoastalWx]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I don't see 2010 there.

[MJO812]

Weeklies look nice going into December 

Nice negative NAO and plenty of cold .

Having the PV weak will help us

[CoastalWx]

do 50mb

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

do 50mb

Still weak

[CoastalWx]

-NAO only as good as the cooperating Pacific. Otherwise enjoy a  cold rain in NYC

[Roger Smith]

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.