Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

This storm is trending great for us. 

For now yes. Have to be wary about the last minute north trend/rug pulls these type of storm often produce and the mid level low tracks which dictate where mid level warm air goes. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

For now yes. Have to be wary about the last minute north trend/rug pulls these type of storm often produce and the mid level low tracks which dictate where mid level warm air goes. 

Even with that said, the initial thump could bring the biggest snow of the season to nyc 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

For now yes. Have to be wary about the last minute north trend/rug pulls these type of storm often produce and the mid level low tracks which dictate where mid level warm air goes. 

Anything from 3-5 to 1 is on the table right now for the immediate metro.  I don't really buy the markedly colder ensemble members right now as a track that gives us 6 plus from an event like this is rare.

[psv88]

Oh we will get slammed all week and weekend. 7 house showings this week and open houses this weekend. Perfect!

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Oh we will get slammed all week and weekend. 7 house showings this week and open houses this weekend. Perfect!

Keep that driveway & walkway clear, don't need any PI claim against your homeowners haha

[psv88]

23 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Keep that driveway & walkway clear, don't need any PI claim against your homeowners haha

Exactly lol

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Keep that driveway & walkway clear, don't need any PI claim against your homeowners haha

It's almost like some people are just wandering around looking to file a claim against someone....

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Anything from 3-5 to 1 is on the table right now for the immediate metro.  I don't really buy the markedly colder ensemble members right now as a track that gives us 6 plus from an event like this is rare.

There's a reason why 6" storms are much more rare than 4" storms.

Come to think of it, 4" storms have become pretty rare now too.

[rgwp96]

This one will most likely be a snow to ice scenario as well but hopefully a bigger front end dump 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, rgwp96 said:

This one will most likely be a snow to ice scenario as well but hopefully a bigger front end dump 

And tonight's GFS and CMC are showing that more significant thump Saturday night. This one has the potential to be several inches. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Oh we will get slammed all week and weekend. 7 house showings this week and open houses this weekend. Perfect!

On the bright side, houses look great in snow.

[MJO812]

Ukie

[MJO812]

Gefs 

[MJO812]

Euro and eps continues to come south with the event. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro and eps continues to come south with the event. 

0z or 6z?

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

0z or 6z?

6z

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z

Hopefully that continues. Has the makings of a nice snow event if it trends a little colder. 

[Allsnow]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully that continues. Has the makings of a nice snow event if it trends a little colder. 

Might be our best shot haha 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Might be our best shot haha 

Well next Tue/Wed still looks good. 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Might be our best shot haha 

Thankfully the nam is colder than today. We'd still flip for a time but hopefully squeeze out a few inches and probably stay all frozen

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well next Tue/Wed still looks good. 

That could ultimately end up missing us to the south.  I’ve never loved the prospects of that event.  I felt until models came to a one storm idea vs multiple waves we’d have no real range of where it was going.  

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That could ultimately end up missing us to the south.  I’ve never loved the prospects of that event.  I felt until models came to a one storm idea vs multiple waves we’d have no real range of where it was going.  

It could but I think odds are still good here

[TJW014]

I'd rather a whiff than these snow to slop to rain events. Been either too far north or too far south this winter so far. Ocean County snow hole doing it's thing. 

[Allsnow]

EPS idv very far south a good amount put Li and nyc in the best snow zone 

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS idv very far south a good amount put Li and nyc in the best snow zone 

Good. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Might be our best shot haha 

Could very well be. I do like the fact that the ensemble show the window of a good period open through the last week of the month. So we may continue to rack up lighter events even after this one.

[ag3]

Rgem looks good for this as well.

[Allsnow]

AI 06z colder would be a great hit 

[BoulderWX]

17 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Rgem looks good for this as well.

Yup, would happily take the 3-5

[NEG NAO]

16 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z NAM now is in range with snow by Sat evening

The problem with NAM is on Tuesday it was also showing several inches for todays (Thursdays) event and as it got closer and closer that amount dwindled down to an inch or 2 which ended up a dusting for many of us  closer to NYC